2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[FerShizzle]

I bet Otz gets into them on this break before Colorado, we have a defensive identity here at Iowa State, and this team is not consistently playing to the level of defensive expectations.

On the flip side, I'm not sure people recognize just how elite this offense has become!

If the guys want to go to a final four, we need to hover around top 10-12 in both offense and defense on kenpom. If we end up top 5 in offense and top 25 in defense, we are going to get beat in the Sweet 16 again.

A top 25 defense is still a really good defense. IMO they need to be top 40 in one and top 10 in the other to have a shot at the Natty.

The past couple seasons they have needed the turnovers to generate transition offense. They just don’t need that this year. I am completely fine with them trapping less, getting stops and rebounds, and push pace when it is available.

 

[Dgilbertson]

I feel like this could be a year we beat Kansas home and away. Why not?

 

[rosshm16]

View attachment 139923

I'm puzzled on how we're projected to go 16-5 in the Big 12 (there are only 20 Big 12 games). Is this algorithm counting the Maui game vs. Colorado as a league game? Is it projecting we go 16-4 then lose in the first round of the conference tourney and counting that?

 

[CychiatricWard]

I'm puzzled on how we're projected to go 16-5 in the Big 12 (there are only 20 Big 12 games). Is this algorithm counting the Maui game vs. Colorado as a league game? Is it projecting we go 16-4 then lose in the first round of the conference tourney and counting that?

It’s counting the Colorado game from Maui.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I'm puzzled on how we're projected to go 16-5 in the Big 12 (there are only 20 Big 12 games). Is this algorithm counting the Maui game vs. Colorado as a league game? Is it projecting we go 16-4 then lose in the first round of the conference tourney and counting that?

It’s counting the Colorado game from Maui.

Indeed. Little bug in their system that doesn't recognize non-conference conference games, themselves an absurd concept but here we are. To be fair, that occurrence was exceedingly rare until recently. I don't think Iowa St. ever played a Big Eight or Big 12 foe in an "out of conference" game until Maui 2024.

 

[ForeverIowan]

In regards to KenPom, since 2002, every single national champion (other than the Napier Uconn team from 2014) has ranked in the top 20 in BOTH Kenpom offensive and defensive efficiency.

Not only will Iowa State finish in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, they will be fighting to finish top 10 in both.

From that aspect, they are very much a final 4 caliber team. It helps to be an older team with very strong guard play as well.

If you look at the current KenPom rankings, there are currently SEVEN teams ranked in top 20 in BOTH offense and defense. Your 2025 national champ VERY LIKELY comes from this group: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Houston, Marquette, Tennessee, Florida

 

[bosco]

That would be an elite group, what are you talking about? Purdue was in the 60s for defensive efficiency last year and made the title game. If we are a top 25 defense, with a top 5 offense that can absolutely get you to the final 4. And I bet our defense improves as we get to conference play. It’s not like it has been horrible by any stretch. Just different.

Defense has been bad.

 

[AuH2O]

Defense has been bad.

ISU is 14th in adjusted D in KenPom. So no it has not.

 

[CIAFarmer]

ISU is 14th in adjusted D in KenPom. So no it has not.

Yes it has. Filter out preseason bias. Barely top 50. Bad for what we want to achieve.

 

[CychiatricWard]

Yes it has. Filter out preseason bias. Barely top 50. Bad for what we want to achieve.

No it hasn’t been. Top 50 for just this year while breaking in a brand new front court essentially, while having a rehabbing Lipsey, and a top 5 offense, is not bad at all. The defense will improve.

 

[Sigmapolis]

ISU is 14th in adjusted D in KenPom. So no it has not.

Yes it has. Filter out preseason bias. Barely top 50. Bad for what we want to achieve.

No it hasn’t been. Top 50 for just this year while breaking in a brand new front court essentially, while having a rehabbing Lipsey, and a top 5 offense, is not bad at all. The defense will improve.

#47 defense on Torvik if you eliminate the last season/preseason effects.

This team could improve. It certainly has a championship-caliber offense.

But it hasn't proven it has a championship-caliber defense. Not by a long shot.

 

[Sigmapolis]

In regards to KenPom, since 2002, every single national champion (other than the Napier Uconn team from 2014) has ranked in the top 20 in BOTH Kenpom offensive and defensive efficiency.

Not only will Iowa State finish in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, they will be fighting to finish top 10 in both.

From that aspect, they are very much a final 4 caliber team. It helps to be an older team with very strong guard play as well.

If you look at the current KenPom rankings, there are currently SEVEN teams ranked in top 20 in BOTH offense and defense. Your 2025 national champ VERY LIKELY comes from this group: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Houston, Marquette, Tennessee, Florida

Torvik top-20 in both not counting preseason effects --

#2 Houston (11/2)
#3 Duke (20/1)
#4 Tennessee (14/3)
#6 Florida (6/18)

Just missed it...

#1 Auburn (1/23)
#5 Gonzaga (5/21)
#7 Maryland (23/5)
#15 Marquette (19/32)
#18 Michigan (31/20)
#19 St. John's (32/26)
#20 Oregon (28/34)
#25 Michigan St. (38/37)

(Some of these teams are worse than the ones below but are more balanced.)

Pretty far away...

#8 Iowa State (3/47)
#9 Illinois (35/6)
#10 Alabama (4/40)
#11 Kansas (37/9)
#12 Texas Tech (10/41)
#13 UCLA (96/4)
#14 Kentucky (8/61)
#17 Arizona (42/16)
#18 Cincinnati (68/7)
#21 Connecticut (2/132)
#22 Mississippi St. (15/52)
#23 Texas A&M (75/11)
#24 Pitt (24/48)

That was everybody in the Torvik #1 through #25 right now.

 

[CySmurf]

I bet Otz gets into them on this break before Colorado, we have a defensive identity here at Iowa State, and this team is not consistently playing to the level of defensive expectations.

On the flip side, I'm not sure people recognize just how elite this offense has become!

If the guys want to go to a final four, we need to hover around top 10-12 in both offense and defense on kenpom. If we end up top 5 in offense and top 25 in defense, we are going to get beat in the Sweet 16 again.

Not necessarily...a lot depends on match ups.

 

[madguy30]

#47 defense on Torvik if you eliminate the last season/preseason effects.

This team could improve. It certainly has a championship-caliber offense.

But it hasn't proven it has a championship-caliber defense. Not by a long shot.

And I'm pretty sure it was solidly in the top ten on Kenpom two weeks ago and has been sliding down which I think shows that decline the further you get from last season and Maui.

It doesn't need to be the hornets' nest of the first two TJ teams but ISU hasn't been stopping the ball all that well lately imo.

 

[NATEizKING]

We didn't stomp the flaming bags of poop like we did last year.

 

[NENick]

I'm not so old school as to think analytics are unimportant, but this team has played 4 games against really good offensive teams, Auburn, Dayton, Marquette, and yes, I'm including a road game at Iowa. Went 3-1 with a last second tip-in loss to the best team in the country.

The 3 transfer bigs aren't yet as good at rotations and pick & roll defense as the 3 recent grads. But they've been pretty damn good and I expect them to get better.

 

[CychiatricWard]

Torvik top-20 in both not counting preseason effects --

#2 Houston (11/2)
#3 Duke (20/1)
#4 Tennessee (14/3)
#6 Florida (6/18)

Just missed it...

#1 Auburn (1/23)
#5 Gonzaga (5/21)
#7 Maryland (23/5)
#15 Marquette (19/32)
#18 Michigan (31/20)
#19 St. John's (32/26)
#20 Oregon (28/34)
#25 Michigan St. (38/37)

(Some of these teams are worse than the ones below but are more balanced.)

Pretty far away...

#8 Iowa State (3/47)
#9 Illinois (35/6)
#10 Alabama (4/40)
#11 Kansas (37/9)
#12 Texas Tech (10/41)
#13 UCLA (96/4)
#14 Kentucky (8/61)
#17 Arizona (42/16)
#18 Cincinnati (68/7)
#21 Connecticut (2/132)
#22 Mississippi St. (15/52)
#23 Texas A&M (75/11)
#24 Pitt (24/48)

That was everybody in the Torvik #1 through #25 right now.

Like someone said already we have played the number 1/6/18/21 offenses this year and are 3-1, with the one being a last second loss versus undoubtedly the best team in the country.

As kenpom stands now we only play 3 teams with offenses in the top 25 the rest of the year, and 5 if you push it to top 26 in Kansas. I think this team, along with this break and more time to gel will crank it up a notch on defense.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Like someone said already we have played the number 1/6/18/21 offenses this year and are 3-1, with the one being a last second loss versus undoubtedly the best team in the country.

As kenpom stands now we only play 3 teams with offenses in the top 25 the rest of the year, and 5 if you push it to top 26 in Kansas. I think this team, along with this break and more time to gel will crank it up a notch on defense.

Torvik and KenPom and the like adjust for the quality of offense you played when making these ratings. Holding a juggernaut like Auburn to 50 is much more impressive than doing the same to some helpless Florida A&M type.

 

[madguy30]

Like someone said already we have played the number 1/6/18/21 offenses this year and are 3-1, with the one being a last second loss versus undoubtedly the best team in the country.

As kenpom stands now we only play 3 teams with offenses in the top 25 the rest of the year, and 5 if you push it to top 26 in Kansas. I think this team, along with this break and more time to gel will crank it up a notch on defense.

I think the ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent so even ISU wins a game over a bad offense there could still be signs of not great defense.

 

[Clone95]

Torvik and KenPom and the like adjust for the quality of offense you played when making these ratings. Holding a juggernaut like Auburn to 50 is much more impressive than doing the same to some helpless Florida A&M type.

Can you filter it to just be our 5 quad 1 and 2 games?