Williams & Blum: The Florida State / Clemson conversation

[SolterraCyclone]

This has never even been floated as an idea. We saw how uneven distribution worked out, why would anyone walk down that path? I can’t speak for OSU but Michigan wouldn’t bring it up and if OSU did they would oppose it out of spite

I wouldn’t include Michigan State in that group of relegation, and I don’t think the process of relegation will come from kicking schools out of the B10 or SEC. Maybe unequal revenue sharing. But I think the more likely scenario is the creation of a Super League

The idea of a Super League is very real. Greg Sankey at SEC media days literally said PE has come to him with the idea to create it. The idea was rebuffed for now, but I wouldn’t bet it will forever. Especially if media dollars do not continue to grow at their current rate or they flatten/lower.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

You must be new here.. Welcome to college football in 2024 where everything is a race for more $$$.

Also keep in mind that Oregon and Washington are on heavily reduced payments right now. That will end once the current media rights deal is up.. OSU, UM, and Penn St are not going to be happy if a 16-team SEC starts to out-earn them in 2030 and beyond (Only 5-years away).

College's Seismic Shift: Oregon, Washington outline reasons for joining Big Ten

Leadership from Oregon, Washington explain why the two charter Pac-12 schools finally left for the Big Ten.

www.sportsbusinessjournal.com

Yeah but the SEC has never out earned the big ten and that doesn’t really show signs of stopping.

I’ll keep saying it, only one conference has had unequal revenue. The big ten doesn’t have a Texas problem and luckily neither does the big 12.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I wouldn’t include Michigan State in that group of relegation, and I don’t think the process of relegation will come from kicking schools out of the B10 or SEC. Maybe unequal revenue sharing. But I think the more likely scenario is the creation of a Super League

The idea of a Super League is very real. Greg Sankey at SEC media days literally said PE has come to him with the idea to create it. The idea was rebuffed for now, but I wouldn’t bet it will forever. Especially if media dollars do not continue to grow at their current rate or they flatten/lower.

Yep if the media dollars dry up then I totally agree with you. But based on the new NBA deals, plus the recent huge cfb deals, I’m not super worried about that. Sports are one of the very few things people watch live and that number outside of sports is continuing to shrink.

I’m extremely anti PE and hope the presidents never entertain the idea. Similar to a super league, that is just going to cause people to tune out in mass.

 

[Kinch]

This has never even been floated as an idea. We saw how uneven distribution worked out, why would anyone walk down that path? I can’t speak for OSU but Michigan wouldn’t bring it up and if OSU did they would oppose it out of spite

This has never even been floated as an idea. We saw how uneven distribution worked out, why would anyone walk down that path? I can’t speak for OSU but Michigan wouldn’t bring it up and if OSU did they would oppose it out of spite

Why wouldn’t Michigan try to get everything a top dog can get?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Why wouldn’t Michigan try to get everything a top dog can get?

Because Michigan already has everything they could ever want and then some. The only conference that has ever had this issue is the big12. I get that because it was everyone’s experience with Texas that you automatically apply that thought process elsewhere but it just has never once come up.

It’s like if you got cheated on by your ex and you suddenly think every relationship you have is going to end up with you being cheated on. It’s just not that way.

Also Michigan and Texas could not be run more differently.

 

[Cydewayz]

The conversation on the podcast kind of reminds me of when I play Monopoly and I tend to get down to only a few tangible dollars in front of me as I'm buying up property and sometimes people tease me about not having cash flow but then as the game continues.....BAM.

 

[Kinch]

Because Michigan already has everything they could ever want and then some. The only conference that has ever had this issue is the big12. I get that because it was everyone’s experience with Texas that you automatically apply that thought process elsewhere but it just has never once come up.

It’s like if you got cheated on by your ex and you suddenly think every relationship you have is going to end up with you being cheated on. It’s just not that way.

Also Michigan and Texas could not be run more differently.

No college has everything they could ever want.

 

[WhoISthis]

Because Michigan already has everything they could ever want and then some. The only conference that has ever had this issue is the big12. I get that because it was everyone’s experience with Texas that you automatically apply that thought process elsewhere but it just has never once come up.

It’s like if you got cheated on by your ex and you suddenly think every relationship you have is going to end up with you being cheated on. It’s just not that way.

Also Michigan and Texas could not be run more differently.

That’s some good cope.

The only thing relevant about Texas is that they’re an example of consolidation as an uncapped arms race is funded by an industry undergoing a change in revenue mechanisms. So is USC, OU, UW, Oregon etc.

Thus far, consolidation has been additive for the BIG, but paying athletes makes it more likely that won’t always be true

 

[JP4CY]

LVille isn't that far behind, if at all.
Pitt is weird - they are bigger and better in a lot of ways, but just don't have great fan support really.
Duke is good for the whole Big12 owns bball strategy, but otherwise just okay.

GT is not ahead of any of those in any way. They are like Pitt but even moreso - bigger and better but also worser. I don't see how they are in any conversation for the Big12 unless they are going to a 24 team conference.


A lot of this depends on what's left for the Big12 to pick. If the P2 take 6 teams and ND stays independent, then you are choosing from #8-11. If the B1G takes ND and UNC and SEC stays put, then you start a LOT higher up the food chain...

Here's how I would rank them, from the Big12's point of view. I think it's pretty close, but obviously arguable at the margins.

View attachment 131499

I like this idea. For comparison I'll go:
ND
UNC
VA
FSU
Clemson
NC St
Louis
Pitt
VT
Miami
Duke
Stanford
GT
Syracuse
Cal
SMU
BC
Wake

 

[WhoISthis]

Schools other than FSU, Clemson, VT, and NC St. Imo, a believable list

 

[benman82]

Every single school in the Big XII would leave for the SEC or B1G if given the opportunity. Every single one.

The problem isn't Big 12 teams leaving for the SEC / B10. The problem is that the best 10-12 schools might split off into a totally new conference and leave the B12 in shambles again. If we had left Utah and ASU in the wilderness and stayed "strong" at 14 we'd be better off because there's not enough B12 schools to make it viable to break the conference up.

For instance, best case scenario for ISU would have been to break the B12 apart when 4 corners came in and dump BYU/UCF/Cinci/Houston back to the wilderness. At 20+ teams in the B12 ISU will no longer be safe from being dumped when the B12 breaks apart around 2035.

 

[Nolaeer]

The problem isn't Big 12 teams leaving for the SEC / B10. The problem is that the best 10-12 schools might split off into a totally new conference and leave the B12 in shambles again. If we had left Utah and ASU in the wilderness and stayed "strong" at 14 we'd be better off because there's not enough B12 schools to make it viable to break the conference up.

For instance, best case scenario for ISU would have been to break the B12 apart when 4 corners came in and dump BYU/UCF/Cinci/Houston back to the wilderness. At 20+ teams in the B12 ISU will no longer be safe from being dumped when the B12 breaks apart around 2035.

ISU will always have a seat at the table with teams like WVU, Pitt, kstate, texas tech, oklahoma state, so your fear is not really well-founded. ISu was never going to be part of a super league if the elites break away.

Had we known we'd get the 4 corners schools, i think yormark would still have taken BYU and UCF. UCF's upside is tremendous, and byu is a national brand. Cinn and houston are not good adds. Small stadiums and small fanbases. But, they do add value in hoops and are in recruiting hotbeds--and provide easy wins.

 

[amishclone]

With college athletes on cusp of revenue-sharing, there are Title IX questions that must be answered

The athlete pay system looming for college sports will bring questions about Title IX, the federal law that prohibits sex discrimination for schools that receive federal funds.

apnews.com

"Title IX" or "players as emoloyees"

Pick one

 

[CascadeClone]

The problem isn't Big 12 teams leaving for the SEC / B10. The problem is that the best 10-12 schools might split off into a totally new conference and leave the B12 in shambles again. If we had left Utah and ASU in the wilderness and stayed "strong" at 14 we'd be better off because there's not enough B12 schools to make it viable to break the conference up.

For instance, best case scenario for ISU would have been to break the B12 apart when 4 corners came in and dump BYU/UCF/Cinci/Houston back to the wilderness. At 20+ teams in the B12 ISU will no longer be safe from being dumped when the B12 breaks apart around 2035.

Yeah no, this is not something that is feasible, it would make zero sense. Plenty of things to worry about but this is not one of them.

 

[WhoISthis]

The problem isn't Big 12 teams leaving for the SEC / B10. The problem is that the best 10-12 schools might split off into a totally new conference and leave the B12 in shambles again. If we had left Utah and ASU in the wilderness and stayed "strong" at 14 we'd be better off because there's not enough B12 schools to make it viable to break the conference up.

For instance, best case scenario for ISU would have been to break the B12 apart when 4 corners came in and dump BYU/UCF/Cinci/Houston back to the wilderness. At 20+ teams in the B12 ISU will no longer be safe from being dumped when the B12 breaks apart around 2035.

Not inviting Utah and ASU out would have only increased the odds that.

14 teams is not more stable for the Big 12 or ISU. There’s no number that would prevent or discourage the top 10-12 schools outside the P2 to leave together to form a new conference, likely lured by PE or new providers (Tech). But smaller means the Big 12 likely made it easier for it to occur


What will best avoid that is the Big 12 doing what’s needed, particularly unequal revenue sharing, to help Clemson/FSU kill the ACC and have ESPN decline the ACC option. Potentially also a P2 friendly exit.

With no ACC or PAC, as we know it, and schools like UVa, Stanford, and UNC in P2, a Big 12 would have the best of the rest. With unequal revenue and P2 mobility, there’s no better conference for a top Big 12 school to leave for.

 

[Nolaeer]

This is despite a 3-9 season.
Anyone who doesnt want VT in their conference is nuts.
ISU is the only team that has fans as passionate as VT. they're nuts even when VT sux.

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[FriendlySpartan]

This is despite a 3-9 season.
Anyone who doesnt want VT in their conference is nuts.
ISU is the only team that has fans as passionate as VT. they're nuts even when VT sux.

youtube enter the sandman wvu game - Search Videos

Watch videos instantly on Bing—enjoy direct playback, discover related clips, and dive into trending content all in one place.

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I don’t disagree with any of this but that doesn’t always translate to media ratings which is where a lot of these decisions happen. That game that you posted had 1.6mil viewers on espn. That’s why a lot of the attendance figures don’t get used, the people paying the media dollars don’t care at all about the game experience for fans they care about eyeballs on tv they can sell ads for.

100% agree die hard amazing fan base though that deserves a home if the ACC falls apart.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

They don't. Florida State is letting their boosters' anger about getting left out last year lead them to a TERRIBLE decision.

Feels like the SEC is more than content with their 16 (and they should be, it's a great league that makes geographic sense) and the Big 10 is great where they are unless something crazy happens where they have to take 3 more to get Notre Dame to jump.

If the ACC blows up, the Big Ten is taking Virginia, North Carolina and Duke/GT/Miami in order to get Notre Dame to jump. If Notre Dame isn't a part of it, the Big Ten is full.

I think it's more about sharing revenue. ND is a whole different conversation in that regard. Everyone else is likely going to dilute the payout.
North Carolina and Virginia are attractive academically so they might be willing to lose some football money but I doubt it.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I think it's more about sharing revenue. ND is a whole different conversation in that regard. Everyone else is likely going to dilute the payout.
North Carolina and Virginia are attractive academically so they might be willing to lose some football money but I doubt it.

AD’s like stability. Oregon and Washington took almost zero extra money to join the big ten. I could see a similar scenario for UNC and UVA. Although I just personally wished the ACC stayed the way it is.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

AD’s like stability. Oregon and Washington took almost zero extra money to join the big ten. I could see a similar scenario for UNC and UVA. Although I just personally wished the ACC stayed the way it is.

There's a chance it might. I don't think anyone knows at this point. Depends on whether ESPN wants to play nice or maybe a tech giant starts bidding crazy numbers.