Bracketology 2024

Kansas is going to be without McCullars again tonight, and rumor is he might not play again this season. If he misses the rest of the season, KU is going to lose at least 2 more before the tournament and should drop them to a 4 seed. The committee is going to see that they haven’t performed well without him and will seed them accordingly.

You say this, but they throttled Texas without him.

I'm terrified Self finally "figured it out" in terms of lineups going into March here.

Like he's been known to do.
 
You say this, but they throttled Texas without him.

I'm terrified Self finally "figured it out" in terms of lineups going into March here.

Like he's been known to do.

I highly doubt KU will lose a home game regardless and probably won't win either road game against Baylor or Houston. You could make a case we'd rather have KU beat Baylor on Saturday. Kansas taking a loss to a top 15 team without their best player won't drop them much. Baylor could pick up a 2nd Q1 win in a row.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VeloClone
It was Texas whom is on a downward trend

Just articulating the other side of the argument.

I know they're a rival. I like beating them as much as any Cyclone.

But Self and that program has earned a lot of benefit of the doubt over the years.

Finally getting their bench and rotations in shape, getting McCullars back for the NCAA tournament, and rolling with their "four horsemen" is going to make them a very dangerous team.

Tournament play/single elimination/short rotations play into their strengths.

I doubt they'll be in our regional thankfully. But if I were a #1 or a #2 in a region I would hate to see the Jayhawks as a #3 or a #4 and ready to snipe me come the second weekend.
 
You say this, but they throttled Texas without him.

I'm terrified Self finally "figured it out" in terms of lineups going into March here.

Like he's been known to do.
Texas sucks, he might be able to patch together a rotation that wins a few games, but you can't replace a guy averaging almost 20 a game once the post-season starts.

I'd say without him their ceiling is Sweet 16, most likely lose in the 2nd round.
 
Just articulating the other side of the argument.

I know they're a rival. I like beating them as much as any Cyclone.

But Self and that program has earned a lot of benefit of the doubt over the years.

Finally getting their bench and rotations in shape, getting McCullars back for the NCAA tournament, and rolling with their "four horsemen" is going to make them a very dangerous team.

Tournament play/single elimination/short rotations play into their strengths.

I doubt they'll be in our regional thankfully. But if I were a #1 or a #2 in a region I would hate to see the Jayhawks as a #3 or a #4 and ready to snipe me come the second weekend.
As poorly as this ku team has done in conference play, I think they are actually built decently well for the tournament, as long as they don't need to rely heavily on their bench.
 
Just articulating the other side of the argument.

I know they're a rival. I like beating them as much as any Cyclone.

But Self and that program has earned a lot of benefit of the doubt over the years.

Finally getting their bench and rotations in shape, getting McCullars back for the NCAA tournament, and rolling with their "four horsemen" is going to make them a very dangerous team.

Tournament play/single elimination/short rotations play into their strengths.

I doubt they'll be in our regional thankfully. But if I were a #1 or a #2 in a region I would hate to see the Jayhawks as a #3 or a #4 and ready to snipe me come the second weekend.
Self is a wizard.
 
We also won at TCU just like Baylor did last night...

Yeah, you have to look at the whole picture though.

We have 4 Q1A wins and they have 4. So similar number of top tier wins. Though I would argue a win over Houston should mean more on our behalf.

We are 5-4 in Q1 and Baylor is 6-7.

Neither team has any bad losses.

They have some big time non-conference wins we do not. Auburn on a neutral, Florida on a neutral.

According to the Torrvik team sheet ranks...

Baylor resume average: 11
Iowa State resume average: 11.5

Baylor quality average: 14
Iowa State quality average: 9.5


We may have a slight edge at the moment but it's close. To say otherwise is nonsensical.
 
I highly doubt KU will lose a home game regardless and probably won't win either road game against Baylor or Houston. You could make a case we'd rather have KU beat Baylor on Saturday. Kansas taking a loss to a top 15 team without their best player won't drop them much. Baylor could pick up a 2nd Q1 win in a row.

Kansas has no depth, but they do have talent that Self doesn't trust. Watch McCullers being out end up forcing Self to playing some highly touted Freshman more and he plays like an All American.
 
Yeah, you have to look at the whole picture though.

We have 4 Q1A wins and they have 4. So similar number of top tier wins. Though I would argue a win over Houston should mean more on our behalf.

We are 5-4 in Q1 and Baylor is 6-7.

Neither team has any bad losses.

They have some big time non-conference wins we do not. Auburn on a neutral, Florida on a neutral.

According to the Torrvik team sheet ranks...

Baylor resume average: 11
Iowa State resume average: 11.5

Baylor quality average: 14
Iowa State quality average: 9.5


We may have a slight edge at the moment but it's close. To say otherwise is nonsensical.
It really would have helped if Baylor had lost last night. I think Baylor will win out and we'll need to as well to keep pace and then it will come down to how the two teams perform in the conference tournament. Highly likely we face them in the semi-finals, so that game could be for Omaha.
 
It really would have helped if Baylor had lost last night. I think Baylor will win out and we'll need to as well to keep pace and then it will come down to how the two teams perform in the conference tournament. Highly likely we face them in the semi-finals, so that game could be for Omaha.

Winning in Lubbock is always tough. I don't see them losing in Waco though to KU without McCullar or Texas.
 
Winning in Lubbock is always tough. I don't see them losing in Waco though to KU without McCullar or Texas.
Tech is a tough place to play but I think they have hit a wall on the back half of their schedule, and it sounds like there are some chemistry issues with them. Feels like 2 teams trending in opposite directions. We'll see.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CyPunch
Just articulating the other side of the argument.

I know they're a rival. I like beating them as much as any Cyclone.

But Self and that program has earned a lot of benefit of the doubt over the years.

Finally getting their bench and rotations in shape, getting McCullars back for the NCAA tournament, and rolling with their "four horsemen" is going to make them a very dangerous team.

Tournament play/single elimination/short rotations play into their strengths.

I doubt they'll be in our regional thankfully. But if I were a #1 or a #2 in a region I would hate to see the Jayhawks as a #3 or a #4 and ready to snipe me come the second weekend.
Their lack of bench strength (they have improved that with McCullar out) will make the format of the conference tournament difficult for them on back to back to back days.
 
Self's KU teams haevn't been unassailable in the tournament. Has lost a 3v14, 1v9 and 1v8 (plus a 2v7). The 3/14 was 20 years ago. The 1/8 was last season.

Conversely, about 42% his KU teams have advanced to Elite 8 or beyond.

Each situation and roster is different, so this isn't predictive for how this team will fare.
 
Their lack of bench strength (they have improved that with McCullar out) will make the format of the conference tournament difficult for them on back to back to back days.
I think they'll play for the NCAA tournament and not so much the conf tourney.

They probably know they can take a few L's from here on out and still be a 3 seed at worst.