Need to keep Creighton and Marquette in mind as well. If Creighton is above both Marquette and ISU on the final Seed List, Creighton goes to Indy (with Purdue) since they can't go to Omaha. So if Marquette and KU are above ISU as well, then Marquette and KU are in Omaha ahead of ISU and ISU would then likely end up in Pittsburgh.
Bracketology 2024
- Thread starter CoachHines3
- Start date
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
7 for the Big Ten would be a joke with the crappy programs most of them built their resumes on
4 teams 96 and lower in NET. Iowa has lost to 3 of them.
Might as well drop this here. I've been doing bracketology since 2014 (I believe I've missed two years since then). You can find me on the Bracket Matrix rankings page at spot #34 (B12).
I did my first in-depth resume examination today and second bracket projection of the year. Here's the link to the Google Sheet where I post my bracket. There's also a tab in there titled Resumes where I have collected all the valuable information that the committee uses (Quad records, resume metrics (KPI/SOR, predictive metrics (Kenpom, BPI), best wins, etc.). That sheet is where I do all my analysis to compare resumes, and it's set up with directions for others to sort/filter the data however they'd like to do the same.
Here's my bracket after this past weekend's slate of games:
I did my first in-depth resume examination today and second bracket projection of the year. Here's the link to the Google Sheet where I post my bracket. There's also a tab in there titled Resumes where I have collected all the valuable information that the committee uses (Quad records, resume metrics (KPI/SOR, predictive metrics (Kenpom, BPI), best wins, etc.). That sheet is where I do all my analysis to compare resumes, and it's set up with directions for others to sort/filter the data however they'd like to do the same.
Here's my bracket after this past weekend's slate of games:
- If Iowa State closes 3-1 and doesn't have a catastrophic showing in the Big 12 tournament (think Texas Tech loss in 2022 that greatly harms predictive metrics), I think they'll be a 3-seed. If they win out and have a good conference tournament, I think a 2-seed is definitely possible/somewhat likely. It depends on how Kansas and Marquette close. It's not just ISU's performance in a vacuum.
- Purdue/Houston/UConn are as locked into being 1-seeds as you can be at this stage. If they lose out, they could drop, but all 3 of those teams are too good to lose out.
- The final 1-seed will be a battle between North Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, and Kansas. Even if Iowa State wins out, I don't think a 1-seed is likely just because you'll need all 4 of those teams to take 2-3 losses, which is very unlikely. Tennessee and Kansas have tough schedules down the stretch so ISU could pass them, but UNC closes with 3 home games and a roadie at Duke. Arizona has 3 road games at ASU, UCLA, USC and a home game at Oregon. Just doesn't seem like a lot of feasible spots for those two to trip up.
- I think there is a clear gap after spots 1-14 in my seed list. I see a significant gap from Creighton to that next group of teams starting with San Diego State. Wisconsin or Illinois could jump up into that upper tier if either beats Purdue and wins out down the regular season stretch.
- If ISU is a 3-seed, after factoring in distance and conference affiliation in assuming the committee won't want a Big 12 game in round 2, here are some teams I think could be the 6-seed in their pod: Kentucky, Florida, Dayton, Clemson, Utah State, South Carolina, Washington State, St. Mary's. Start monitoring how those teams close, but I'd put my bet on one of those being the 6 to ISU's 3 if that's where ISU ends up.
- The scariest scenario to me is Gonzaga being an 11 in Iowa State's pod. Don't want any part of that.
- This has been talked about a lot, but if Iowa State finishes above Baylor, they will likely get Omaha. That's the simplest equation. Now there is a scenario where Creighton closes super strong and jumps Marquette, which would place Creighton in Indianapolis and would open up Marquette as Omaha competition for ISU. So root for Marquette when they play at Creighton on Saturday. Or root for Marquette to drop 1-2 more games if Creighton beats them.
- The simplest option is also to just root for Kansas to lose so ISU can have Omaha priority over them. That Big 12 regular season finale day will be interesting. There could be a scenario where ISU fans have to root for Kansas to beat Houston to get a share of the Big 12 title or root for Houston to beat Kansas to guarantee Omaha and a potential 2-seed.
Yep that’s a good point on Creighton leapfrogging Marquette. Creighton wasn’t in the NCAAs initial top 16 reveal, so I didn’t consider them.
I think they have a lot of ground to make up to move past Marquette (and us) though, considering they were at least 10 spots lower than the Eagles 3 games ago. They could also potentially be a problem if they leapfrog Baylor and Bama to swipe a slot in Memphis, if Baylor is ahead of us. I think these two scenarios are unlikely, but I’ll root against Creighton to be safe anyway.
Would love the top #2 seed and be paired in the same region as the last #1 seed (likely UNC or Arizona). Not overly impressed by either team, and as things currently stand, we would only be a slight underdog if we played them in the elite 8.
As long as Im picking my ideal bracket give me Alabama as the #3 seed. They thrive off free flowing offense and IMO are soft. Their PG is the straw that stirs the drink Lipsey would shut him down. They wouldn't know what to do with our defense.
As long as Im picking my ideal bracket give me Alabama as the #3 seed. They thrive off free flowing offense and IMO are soft. Their PG is the straw that stirs the drink Lipsey would shut him down. They wouldn't know what to do with our defense.
I don't think so. They were probably a 4 going into last night. Might of moved up a few, but we should still be ahead of them. They host KU on Saturday, so it's getting close. ISU just needs to win and they will stay ahead
I don't think so, we have a stronger resume at this point. Those wins over KU and Houston will be huge.
We also lost a Quad 1 win in the process of Baylor gaining one last night. It's really close.
we probably dont have room for a loss, especially because of the ease of our remaining schedule, but I would't call it close. baylor wont pass us if we keep winning.
Kansas is going to be without McCullars again tonight, and rumor is he might not play again this season. If he misses the rest of the season, KU is going to lose at least 2 more before the tournament and should drop them to a 4 seed. The committee is going to see that they haven’t performed well without him and will seed them accordingly.
