2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[4theCYcle]

Saw this on reddit yesterday from EvanMiya - they have Gilbert/Momcilovic/BRE as the 4th best 3-man unit IN THE COUNTRY.

1) Lipsey isn't part of our most efficient unit
2) The efficiency metrics love BRE
3) Milan's defense is that good
4) We got a gem in Keshon

I also think we got a steal in Curtis Jones. He has been stepping up immensely the last several weeks and I love his growth and shooting. That, along with how good Tamin, Ward, and King have been, we have a solid 7 and with Watson right there and Pav with good spot minutes. If the team can just have a little uptick in their FT shooting and make those bunnies! Such a fun team to watch grow.

 

[WhatchaGonnaDo]

I also think we got a steal in Curtis Jones. He has been stepping up immensely the last several weeks and I love his growth and shooting. That, along with how good Tamin, Ward, and King have been, we have a solid 7 and with Watson right there and Pav with good spot minutes. If the team can just have a little uptick in their FT shooting and make those bunnies! Such a fun team to watch grow.

Yeah, it's nice to finally have a reliable bench.

Curtis Jones is just steady and is gaining so much confidence.

And Pav's minutes against UT helped keep Tamin's legs fresh for the final stretch. He's not flashy but can give good minutes when needed.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I also think we got a steal in Curtis Jones. He has been stepping up immensely the last several weeks and I love his growth and shooting. That, along with how good Tamin, Ward, and King have been, we have a solid 7 and with Watson right there and Pav with good spot minutes. If the team can just have a little uptick in their FT shooting and make those bunnies! Such a fun team to watch grow.

He's a real offensive threat, great ball handler, seldom makes a bad mistake and defends really, really well. That would make it a steal if we just got him for 1 year, and we got him for 2.

 

[Statefan10]

He's a real offensive threat, great ball handler, seldom makes a bad mistake and defends really, really well. That would make it a steal if we just got him for 1 year, and we got him for 2.

He's a starter who comes off the bench. Such a great piece to have.

 

[Malone]

There aren't many questions about this team at this point - we're a fantastic defensive group that tends to bull rush teams in the first 20 minutes and build large-ish leads. That's good enough to win most of the time.

IMO what's going to either propel or hold us back from being the type of analytical team that can make a long tournament run is three point shooting.

After we make a three, it's been a common refrain from television commentators to imply surprise because we're not a good distance shooting team. If you look at our conference-only total 52/163 (31.9%) that belief that's backed.

However, if you choose to exclude the first four conference games and start counting at the TCU game where Keshon and Curt started coming into their own, we're 39/103 (37.9%).

I'm going to be watching as closely as anything how our threes are trending. If Curt and Keshon can continue to consistently supplement the already strong shooting of Milan and Tamin (and perhaps if Tre can keep hitting a few here and there) we are a very serious contender.

(Closing out games is the other issue to watch, but the subject of another post)

 

[4theCYcle]

There aren't many questions about this team at this point - we're a fantastic defensive group that tends to bull rush teams in the first 20 minutes and build large-ish leads. That's good enough to win most of the time.

IMO what's going to either propel or hold us back from being the type of analytical team that can make a long tournament run is three point shooting.

After we make a three, it's been a common refrain from television commentators to imply surprise because we're not a good distance shooting team. If you look at our conference-only total 52/163 (31.9%) that belief that's backed.

However, if you choose to exclude the first four conference games and start counting at the TCU game where Keshon and Curt started coming into their own, we're 39/103 (37.9%).

I'm going to be watching as closely as anything how our threes are trending. If Curt and Keshon can continue to consistently supplement the already strong shooting of Milan and Tamin (and perhaps if Tre can keep hitting a few here and there) we are a very serious contender.

(Closing out games is the other issue to watch, but the subject of another post)

Tre has turned into a sneaky good threat. They don't respect him at all and his shot looks fairly impressive!

 

[MJ271]

There aren't many questions about this team at this point - we're a fantastic defensive group that tends to bull rush teams in the first 20 minutes and build large-ish leads. That's good enough to win most of the time.

IMO what's going to either propel or hold us back from being the type of analytical team that can make a long tournament run is three point shooting.

After we make a three, it's been a common refrain from television commentators to imply surprise because we're not a good distance shooting team. If you look at our conference-only total 52/163 (31.9%) that belief that's backed.

However, if you choose to exclude the first four conference games and start counting at the TCU game where Keshon and Curt started coming into their own, we're 39/103 (37.9%).

I'm going to be watching as closely as anything how our threes are trending. If Curt and Keshon can continue to consistently supplement the already strong shooting of Milan and Tamin (and perhaps if Tre can keep hitting a few here and there) we are a very serious contender.

(Closing out games is the other issue to watch, but the subject of another post)

Not just Jones and Gilbert coming into their own, but Momcilovic is getting much more comfortable with the intensity of Big 12 play. Small samples of course, but he was 26% from three in the first 4 Big 12 games and is 43% in the last 5 (starting at TCU). In those 5, the only game where MM doesn't have multiple made threes is when he was 0-2 at Baylor.

 

[cyclones500]

Although it's a minor detail for ISU's profile at this point, VCU is playing Dayton at home tonight. A win over UD could lift VCU from Q2b to Q2a.

 

[MushroomPinball]

Although it's a minor detail for ISU's profile at this point, VCU is playing Dayton at home tonight. A win over UD could lift VCU from Q2b to Q2a.

How much higher would vcu have to climb for that to be a quad 1 win?

 

[CychiatricWard]

How much higher would vcu have to climb for that to be a quad 1 win?

They would need to jump into the top 50 since it was a neutral court game. They were 79 before tonight’s game, so they will get a bump, but unlikely to jump to a quad 1 win.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Although it's a minor detail for ISU's profile at this point, VCU is playing Dayton at home tonight. A win over UD could lift VCU from Q2b to Q2a.

Pulled the upset!

 

[Sigmapolis]

He's a starter who comes off the bench. Such a great piece to have.

He probably deserves to start over Tre King at this point.

Then again... yes yes I know Tre has seniority and ultimately what matters more is the distribution of minutes and who *ends* games compared to starts them. If it ain't broke, no need to fix it.

Is there a better player *not* starting in the Big 12 right now?

I'm wondering if he might be in line for the SMOTY award.

 

[qwerty]

They would need to jump into the top 50 since it was a neutral court game. They were 79 before tonight’s game, so they will get a bump, but unlikely to jump to a quad 1 win.

Hell, Iowa is inching toward becoming a Q3 win for us. Only 12 slots away at this point.

 

[bosco]

Hell, Iowa is inching toward becoming a Q3 win for us. Only 12 slots away at this point.

Those ******* have nothing to play for so they're doing it out of spite.

 

[CyPunch]

Although it's a minor detail for ISU's profile at this point, VCU is playing Dayton at home tonight. A win over UD could lift VCU from Q2b to Q2a.

Also helpful in that it knocks Dayton down on the seed line. They were a 4 seed entering last night.

 

[interrobang]

Wasn't expecting that big of a jump, but top 10 now in Kenpom!!

 

[Sigmapolis]

#6 on Torvik...



I don't know if the committee will let the Big 12 have more than #1 seed when it has other conference champions to select from (with me making the assumption Houston is going to close things out an earn a well-deserved #1 seed with that statement), but we're not far from seriously fighting for a #1 seed...



I thought this season would go well. But this is getting stupid.

 

[Cyched]

Up to the 3 line on Bracket Matrix

 

[Sigmapolis]

Up to the 3 line on Bracket Matrix

I've always interpreted most of the brackets aggregated on that site as "if the tournament started tomorrow," which underestimates where Iowa State and other Big 12 teams will finish the year.

Big 12 teams are accruing better wins (and better losses) from each other compared to the competitors in other power conferences every week. Hence, the Big 12 should keep creeping up.

This is why Torvik has ISU on the #2 line instead of the #3 line. Torvik is projecting the rest of the season out, which means a few more Q1 wins and losses that shouldn't look too bad at the end.

Arizona has one Q1 game remaining and a bunch of Q2 and Q3 junk under that.

Iowa State still has four Q1 games to go (at Cincinnati, at Houston, at UCF, and home BYU). The remainder are Q2 games threatening to end up in Q1 and then a lone clunker against WVU (Q3).

Big 12 teams just have more chances to prove themselves and, even if they stumble and lose a few games, the metrics are going to make those look like "good losses" compared to say Big Ten games.

 

[isuclone89]

#6 on Torvik...

View attachment 123687

I don't know if the committee will let the Big 12 have more than #1 seed when it has other conference champions to select from (with me making the assumption Houston is going to close things out an earn a well-deserved #1 seed with that statement), but we're not far from seriously fighting for a #1 seed...

View attachment 123688

I thought this season would go well. But this is getting stupid.

Nuts that the Big 12 has 5 in the top 16.