Numbers in. Numbers out. It’s not trying to appease, it’s not trying to be anything that it isn’t.
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Numbers in. Numbers out. It’s not trying to appease, it’s not trying to be anything that it isn’t.
Bracketologists dance cards are the ones I use. I like that it lays out every game, not just the ones played so you can see not only how many games in each quad are remaining but who they are playing and where.is really looking great so far. Not only do we have a NET of #5 in the country, but we have a lot of opportunities coming up for Q1 wins in Big 12 play. 11 to be exact (as things currently stand).
Here's a snapshot of what our "dance card" looks like as of today.
Bracketologists is an awesome site to keep track of all things NET. It breaks down upcoming games, shows historical trends and movement, and predicts future Quad opportunities based on your schedule.
Check it out: https://bracketologists.com/team/iowa-state-cyclones
Didn't we go 11-2 and win a Thanksgiving tournament in 2018? I think we all know how that turned out.
Not saying that will happen again, but right now I don't think we know alot about this team.
You should definitely get more credit for beating teams by margin. It's just really hard to be consistently perfect in doing so like ISU has been so far. For example, Kansas played Eastern Illinois tight and gave up 70 to UMKC. That's two data points that definitely negatively impacted their computer standings.
This also explains why we had poor computer rankings in TJ's first year. We won all the buy games but didn't put up many points and often didn't win by margin.
Football has the same analytic models (see Sagarin), people just pay less attention to it.
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Note: New redundant thread on NET was merged here if some posts/replies seem a bit out of sync.
9-9 in a very tough conference, winning the Big 12 tourney, getting a 6 seed in the NCAAs? I'm down with that for this year.
Yeah, id take that any day, must have been 17-18 then when we went 11-2 then couldn't win a Big 12 game.
And beat #349 Maryland Eastern Shore by 6 points on the Christmas getaway game! The game wasn't that close or ever in doubt but it dropped us from #70 to #79 in Torrvik.
Funny you bring that up actually. We were 11-2 but very accurately ranked by the computers after the non-conference. We started conference play ranked #79 and finished the season ranked #82.
Both years, ISU in KenPom:
'17-'18: #76 after non-conference, #103 at year's end
'18-'19: #17 after non-conference, #15 at year's end
So even though the non-conference records were nearly identical those years, the computers knew what was what. There's a reason the opening Vegas odds for any MBB game hew closely to the KenPom predictions.
And regarding this season's team: KenPom does try to minimize lopsided wins in their formula, and despite that, ISU is still in 12th. I tend to be more pessimistic than the average fan most seasons, but this season, I think there's legitimate reason to think this Cyclone team is the real deal.
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Same with that dork Lunardi although I'm not sure his input ever matters.
Does anyone know if Torrvik does remaining SOS?
ESPN has ISU with the #1 toughest Big 12 schedule and thus the #1 remaining SOS in the country. This checks out on the surface playing home-and-homes with the two highest ranked teams in the conference (BYU and Houston) and only playing the 3 worst teams in the conference (UCF, Oklahoma St, and West Virginia) once.
www.espn.com
ESPN has ISU with the #1 toughest Big 12 schedule and thus the #1 remaining SOS in the country. This checks out on the surface playing home-and-homes with the two highest ranked teams in the conference (BYU and Houston) and only playing the 3 worst teams in the conference (UCF, Oklahoma St, and West Virginia) once.
2024-25 Men's College Basketball Power Index - ESPN
View the 2024-25 Men's College Basketball power index on ESPN. The BPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.
www.espn.com
That was 2017/18.
Was a 'rebuild' after some nice tears but looking back you have to think an NIT bid was doable.
The post I was responding to is referencing the '17-'18 year. Appears KenPom was more down on the team at the end of the year than Torrvik was. Not that the difference between #82 (Torrvik) and #103 (KP) really matters.
Completely agree with your point in bold.
Playing in any other conference but the Big 12 probably would of provided enough free wins to make the NIT.
I love how the top 13 teams with the hardest remaining schedule are all from the big 12Does anyone know if Torrvik does remaining SOS?
ESPN has ISU with the #1 toughest Big 12 schedule and thus the #1 remaining SOS in the country. This checks out on the surface playing home-and-homes with the two highest ranked teams in the conference (BYU and Houston) and only playing the 3 worst teams in the conference (UCF, Oklahoma St, and West Virginia) once.
2024-25 Men's College Basketball Power Index - ESPN
View the 2024-25 Men's College Basketball power index on ESPN. The BPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.
The Big12 has the top 13 teams for remaining SOS, and the 14th (Tech) is #16!!!Does anyone know if Torrvik does remaining SOS?
ESPN has ISU with the #1 toughest Big 12 schedule and thus the #1 remaining SOS in the country. This checks out on the surface playing home-and-homes with the two highest ranked teams in the conference (BYU and Houston) and only playing the 3 worst teams in the conference (UCF, Oklahoma St, and West Virginia) once.
2024-25 Men's College Basketball Power Index - ESPN
View the 2024-25 Men's College Basketball power index on ESPN. The BPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.
Because they get/pay highly sought after players. Hate him or not Self is an elite coach. They are one of top brands in college basketball so they get the benefit of doubt from refs, pundits and polls.
That is interesting. If the goal is to get an easier schedule, it is a perfect scheduling draw for Texas Tech. They play 5 of the 6 highest rated teams in the Big 12 only once. Houston, Kansas, BYU, Oklahoma, and Iowa St they play just once. Baylor is the only top 6 team they play twice.
Who are the "top" teams will of course shift but that is where it stands now.
The aspect that almost everyone misses when talking about the NET it that a team's high ranking has much more impact in benefiting its opponents' resumes then in benefiting a particular team itself. That is, Iowa State's high NET ranking is primarily helpful to other Big 12 teams, Texas A&M, VCU, etc., in giving them a potential Q1A win. For a power league team like ISU, their NET ranking likely has little predictive power for their tournament seed above and beyond the other information the committee has. (Might be different for, say, an FAU.)
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