Ready for the VCU game. Want to see this team against someone with a pulse. Even though VCU isn't great it is definitely a step up from what they have been playing. I think ISU goes 3-0 this week.
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Something to keep an eye on when watching the games is the "2-pointer point distribution" and the "3PA/FGA" metrics.
The other site I look at a lot (haslametrics.com) measures a "proximity" metric, which is the proximity to the hoop for scores. We were #1 in the country last year, and measurably better this year.
What this means on the court is that we don't let people score in the paint. 35% of total points being 2-pt shots is ridiculous. 3s and FTs only is the basic defensive strategy. That happens by doubling any touch in the paint, not allowing fast brake or second chance points, and fouling if someone does get a look in the paint.
Obviously, as we saw at times last year, it makes you susceptible to a hot 3pt shooting team and foul trouble. Both tend to happen when the team is a step slow and not fully engaged. But I love it as a defensive identity
Trapping all over the place caught up as opponents started getting the ball to the corner for a rhythmic three.
Hopefully the trapping can be less needed and predictable this year with more length.
That didn't seem to happen as much in 21-22 and I think perhaps Brockington and Hunter provided more speed/disruption on the perimeter.
Man by the numbers the only things that stands out as "needs improvement" is free throws. How are we top 33 in three point percentage, top 29 in two point percentage, while being 137th in free throws?? Seems to be a TJ thing as I don't remember us being good the last two years.
Do what Ryan Bowen did and have the guys shoot 100 free throws before each practice.
We're shooting 73%. That seems pretty good.
73% would put you between 134-135 last year so not really. Obviously I'm nitpicking but if we want to make a deep run come march making your free throws is going to certainly help win some close games. While looking at our other shooting percentages it's not that we don't have the ability to improve.
ISU could be top 5 in every category possible and still get bounced by Thursday afternoon of the tourney.
They had a marginal shooter hit 7 threes two seasons ago to win.
Let's just see how the next three weeks goes.
~140th is still above average for D1 teams. It could be better, sure, but it's far from a disaster. Impact in games is also relative to how many FTs the team takes, which largely remains to be seen.
According to NCAA.com, ISU was 115th (at 73%) thru 11/20 games.
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Still could use some improvement, but a single percentage point would put ISU into top 100 (currently), so it isn't too bad.
Without having time to check recent seasons, seems like we've been closer to upper 60s for percentage as a team.
Edit/addendum: It's also difficult to know how FT% will extend throughout the season. Perhaps if some players get more volume, it might rise, but also in tough games vs. better opponents, "tired legs" might become a factor for some guys.
You're being pretty nitpicky here. If ISU was a top 50 free throw percentage team they would be shooting at least 76%, which would equate to a whopping 3 more points as we have attempted exactly 100 free throws. That's less than a point per game. We shot 67% last year, so we are already well ahead of last year, and I think there is reason to believe we will improve.
FT shooting is largely about who takes them. Based on their prior years and so far this year, the guards are all good (Tamin and CJones at ~75%) to great (Gilbert & Milan at ~85%) FT shooters.
If you take out RJones and Ward, the team is almost 80%.
If you take out RJones and Ward, the team is almost 80%.
73% overall is fine and having our end of game 80% squad will be good. That's on TJ to manage
Hack-a-Jones and Hack-a-Ward will be in full operation in close games.
Iowa and KU etc. will go after Lipsey too to get him in foul trouble.
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I'm pretty sure if you take out Bob's FTs we are closer to 76 percent, which is fine as a team.
Thus far Bob has shown a lot of improvement. It's seems clear he's worked on us body, footwork, and has done very well at "playing within himself" something he's struggled with at times as he would often force ill-advised action. With that said I don't think he is capable of getting to even 60 percent from the line. That will always drag us down a bit.
Bunnies and FTs, the forever BRE Achilles heels.
They should definitely try to intentionally foul the career 76% free throw shooter imo
76% as a team was top 30 last season out of all 362 division 1 teams.
Anything at or above 73% as a team is pretty good and would be a welcomed improvement on last year's 67.0% (321st).
Exactly
You'd expect Milan to have a nice FT shot - but Omaha's FT form is probably the biggest tell of where he can get to. It's smooooth.
Tre is going to be hard to keep off the floor, but I wonder if the 3 guards, Milan and Omaha isn't the crunch time lineup before the end of the year
