2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

ZRF

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I wouldn't disagree with you the zone last year was a half-assed changeup to mess with the other team occasionally and/or an attempt to keep Osunniyi or King out of foul trouble.

They weren't committed to it from a scheme perspective, never seemed to have their heart into it the way they did playing man-to-man, and their personnel wasn't a great fit for it.

One of the intractable weaknesses of a zone defense is it allows your opponent to dictate matchups. You have the same problem with the "switch everything" man-to-man style against the P&R.

The point of having a guy like Kalscheur on the roster -- a good though streaker shooter but a beast of a man-to-man defender -- is to erase your opponents' best perimeter scorer or at least force them into a degree of mistakes and inefficiency that means they're dragging their team down with them.

Football schemes run into the same problem. Unless you're playing some sort of man or matchup concept with coverage over the top from the safeties, then that lockdown CB might not always be matched up with the best WR on the other team. And you know the offensive coordinator on the other side is doing everything they can to get their best players away from your best CB. Dictating matchups is power.

Putting a guy with Kalscheur-level lateral quickness but small size/wingspan for his position is just a waste of resources in a zone. There's a bunch of reasons it was never a primary look the past two years.

I agree with you this year might be different, though. The athleticism and length is there to do it. There isn't an ace defender (though Gilbert could emerge as one... Lipsey is close) who you want dogging the best player on the other team any time they're on the court. A zone might actually be useful for hiding Milan.

I'm sure we'll see more and a better version of it this year.

I just think a defense that lets an opponent get their best scorers away from a guy like Kalscheur without too much trouble is a defense that isn't maximizing your strengths as a roster.

I agree with what you said about Kal. My point was I don't think TJ's reluctance to run zone was really about him, more about the personnel and the acumen. At the very least it would have been nice to have been able to run a passable zone, if for no other reason than to mitigate fouling issues and keep some guys on the floor. Losing key players for long stretches due to foul trouble was a fairly consistent issue once we entered league play.

While I do think it can actually be a weapon and create a lot of TOs, I'm more excited about it being used as a supplement to mitigate the impact of fouls. Though, like I think we can both agree, the increase in teamwide length and athleticism will hopefully reduce some of those issues by itself. Lipsey not only looks more explosive he also has another year under his belt, as do Watson, Ward (on this team), and King (same as Ward).
 
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Didley

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Filtering to only include this season's games, Iowa State is now #1 in Bart Torvik's ratings. First in defense, 15th in offense.
What rankings are considered the most accurate that take only this season’s games into account? I know it is early but I am pretty confident what I am seeing is amazing. But I want to be sure before I remove my nut cup. Are we solidly a top 25 team?
 

Dale

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What rankings are considered the most accurate that take only this season’s games into account?
At this point, probably none to be honest -- it's just such a small sample size. Later on in the season, though, Bart Torvik is my go-to for that. I don't know if KenPom offers that as an option to paid subscribers.

ISU is up to number 15 in the regular KenPom ratings, which at least to me suggests the Cyclones are probably a legit top 25 team. Would feel more confident if we had some games against higher-level opponents, though.
 

madguy30

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Including pre-season bias the Big 12 conference somehow got harder adding 4 teams, including 3 G5 teams and an independent...

View attachment 119598

Houston, Cinci and BYU have had some good success in basketball.

AZ will really crank things up stsrting next year.

I hope ISU is good enough to be considered for scheduling top conference matchups over the years.
 

Sigmapolis

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Houston, Cinci and BYU have had some good success in basketball.

AZ will really crank things up stsrting next year.

I hope ISU is good enough to be considered for scheduling top conference matchups over the years.

Kansas/Kentucky/Michigan St./Duke/UNC/etc. always seem to find a way to play each other either through the interconference challenges, events at neutral sites (such as the doubleheader in Chicago last week), or simply scheduling each other home/home. Good teams want to play other good teams. The TV networks want those marquee matchups. If we get on that tier, I want in on those games.

:)
 

madguy30

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I'd love a home and home with Minnesota in the non-con.. I'm guessing they would not want that though as we have been poaching their talent and they wouldn't want to showcase us to their market..

Nah. At the current situation a win is not much and it's a bad loss.

Get a program that regularly makes the tourney for a good win/not a bad loss scenario.
 
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cyfan92

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I’ve always wanted us to play Marquette more often. Consistently one of the best teams in the upper Midwest and in a prime recruiting area for TJ. Home and home would be great, but I’d even be fine with some neutral site games.
BE/Big 12 challenge would be ideal, but ESPN wanted the Shaka Smart game for the storyline. Perhaps in the coming years.
 

madguy30

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With as bad as our non-con is. The only way to boost us up is to beat the crap out of these teams and we aren’t doing it. Because we’re absolutely slaughtering them.

And without all of the line up experimenting it would be much worse.

I'm looking forward to this tournment.
 

LLCoolCY

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I’ve always wanted us to play Marquette more often. Consistently one of the best teams in the upper Midwest and in a prime recruiting area for TJ. Home and home would be great, but I’d even be fine with some neutral site games.
It does take two though. I have no idea who Jamie and TJ would like to schedule but Marquette would need to agree to play ISU and risk exposing the Wisconsin recruits to ISU even more so.
I have seen that ISU had been trying to get a home and home with Minnesota in the past and UofM won't engage. They are worried about TJ getting a recruiting boost in their area.

With the Big 12 likely expanding the games to Dec once the corner 4 are added (potentially Gonzaga and ?) to the non-con season soon. I am not sure we will ever end up getting home/home non-con games in the future as fun as it would be.
I understand a low major non-con isn't attractive to season ticket holders but in the end ISU knows they will get the season ticket sales regardless of who is playing @Hilion in November and isn't motivated to schedule more aggressively.
 
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Cyballzz

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It does take two though. I have no idea who Jamie and TJ would like to schedule but Marquette would need to agree to play ISU and risk exposing the Wisconsin recruits to ISU even more so.
I have seen that ISU had been trying to get a home and home with Minnesota in the past and UofM won't engage. They are worried about TJ getting a recruiting boost in their area.

With the Big 12 likely expanding the games to Dec once the corner 4 are added (potentially Gonzaga and ?) to the non-con season soon. I am not sure we will ever end up getting home/home non-con games in the future as fun as it would be.
I understand a low major non-con isn't attractive to season ticket holders but in the end ISU knows they will get the season ticket sales regardless of who is playing @Hilion in November and isn't motivated to schedule more aggressively.

I will also be surprised if there isn't a Big XII/Big 10 challenge starting in the near future.