Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

WhoISthis

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I have not read every thing yet on pg 699.

But the problem with this guys 4+4 idea is...Why would the lower four want to help the top four make lots and lots of money, meanwhile the lower 4 only get what they were going to get anyway. What's in it for them? The top four would have to bribe them with more than just, break even.

Easy- the GOR has an expiration. The more a school fears they’ll be left out in something below current ACC, the more desperate they’ll be to sell their “vote”. The GOR is all they have to change their realignment future

Do you think Oregon St or Wazzu would, if they could, go back and give up USC/UCLA to P2 in exchange for Big 12 offer at no loss or even a slight premium? They’d jump at that. Heck, they’d likely do it at a discount

And Big 12 will do whatever ESPN and Fox want if it locks them in as 3rd conference, ultimately with exclusivity on non-P2 CFP autos.
 

isucy86

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How do you believe that all members of the ACC land in a new and better conference?

How do you think the B1G will take 6-8 teams from the ACC? The most anyone I have ever seen believes it would be 4 max to the B1G and 4 max to the SEC. The big 12 will probably not take all the rest.

Find me a G5 conference that makes as much as the ACC?

The MT West I believe is the highest paying G5 currently and they make a little less than $4M per team from media.

Edit: I see you said 6-8 to the combined B1G and SEC, I read it too fast the first time as 6-8 to b1g alone. my other point still stands.

He is the scenario I think he is laying.

To SEC: FSU, Miami, Clemson & GA Tech​
To Big10: UNC, Virginia, Duke & Notre Dame​

So that is 7 current ACC schools on the SEC/Big10 gravy train- Making $600M more over the next decade or so. IMO ND gives the Big10 a lot of financial flexibility to take 4.

To Big12: Pitt, Va Tech, NCST, Syracuse. I am sure the Gravy Train schools are counting on the Big12 deal being better or at least close to breakeven to the current ACC deal over the next 12 years. Especially since the Big12 will go out to bid again around 2030.​
To G5: Wake, BC and Louisville. Obviously not a better conference, but G5 is where they would likely end up after 2036. These schools make $17M today and might make $7M in the AAC. So the 7 gravy train schools buy-off the 3 Left Behind. Each of the 7 gravy train schools puts $10M annually in a pooled account that is divided up by the 3 left. $70M split 3 ways is $23.3M and combined with the $7M AAC payout the 3 left behind will make $30.3M annually. Quite a bit more than the current $17M the Left Behind group makes in base ACC $. But would the AAC want a cut to take those schools? Afterall, does Tulane or Memphis want to make $23M less than the ACC Left Behinds.​
The one issue Double Fries didn't mention is future 12 team playoff money. There is a big difference between what P5 & G5 schools will make. I would think the Left Behind group would want a piece of playoff money through 2036.

Never said it would be easy. But it would be a financial win/win for all 14 ACC schools vs. today. And funny enough, funded by the SEC & Big10 TV money.
 

isucy86

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Because there are going to be schools that think (hope) they can level up before 2031 or 2036. BC getting left out? Maybe they can earn that B12 invite. SEC passes on VATech? Maybe they’re not fated to go to the B12.

Someone going to the B12 is probably going to stick there for the foreseeable future. Someone outside the P3 is probably stuck there.

Let’s not forget - maybe ND wants to remain independent in FB for now and decides the ACC > Big East for their other sports. Being ND, money isn’t the only thing. Maybe they want to stick it to the B10 for some **** from 80 years ago or the SEC for just for funsies and respond to every “how much?” with “not interested.”
Notre Dame's gonna wanna get paid. I am sure they feel a lot like FSU and Clemson and want to keep up with Big10/SEC money to make sure they can be competitive on the field, facilities and coach salaries.

They might be able to do that staying independent if NBC ups their current $25M/year deal. The NBC deal is only for ND home games. It would be interesting to see what ND gets from the ACC on a per game basis in FB. I am assuming the USC & Stanford games are treated similar to the CyHawk.
 

WhoISthis

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He is the scenario I think he is laying.

To SEC: FSU, Miami, Clemson & GA Tech​
To Big10: UNC, Virginia, Duke & Notre Dame​

So that is 7 current ACC schools on the SEC/Big10 gravy train- Making $600M more over the next decade or so. IMO ND gives the Big10 a lot of financial flexibility to take 4.

To Big12: Pitt, Va Tech, NCST, Syracuse. I am sure the Gravy Train schools are counting on the Big12 deal being better or at least close to breakeven to the current ACC deal over the next 12 years. Especially since the Big12 will go out to bid again around 2030.​
To G5: Wake, BC and Louisville. Obviously not a better conference, but G5 is where they would likely end up after 2036. These schools make $17M today and might make $7M in the AAC. So the 7 gravy train schools buy-off the 3 Left Behind. Each of the 7 gravy train schools puts $10M annually in a pooled account that is divided up by the 3 left. $70M split 3 ways is $23.3M and combined with the $7M AAC payout the 3 left behind will make $30.3M annually. Quite a bit more than the current $17M the Left Behind group makes in base ACC $. But would the AAC want a cut to take those schools? Afterall, does Tulane or Memphis want to make $23M less than the ACC Left Behinds.​
The one issue Double Fries didn't mention is future 12 team playoff money. There is a big difference between what P5 & G5 schools will make. I would think the Left Behind group would want a piece of playoff money through 2036.

Never said it would be easy. But it would be a financial win/win for all 14 ACC schools vs. today. And funny enough, funded by the SEC & Big10 TV money.

No one will agree to end ACC early for G5. Even if independently wealthy from payments. Perhaps they can be forced to without consent, but they’d take 13 more years of status quo over G5 and cash


Plus, the Big 12 is not passing on Louisville, particularly one getting kickbacks.

If the P2 are at 20+, the Big 12 will be too. Adding all ACC leftovers is more likely than schools going to G5 (and that should scare ASU and Utah) Although that risk for Wake and BC very motivating to being agreeable.
 
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2speedy1

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He is the scenario I think he is laying.

To SEC: FSU, Miami, Clemson & GA Tech​
To Big10: UNC, Virginia, Duke & Notre Dame​

So that is 7 current ACC schools on the SEC/Big10 gravy train- Making $600M more over the next decade or so. IMO ND gives the Big10 a lot of financial flexibility to take 4.

To Big12: Pitt, Va Tech, NCST, Syracuse. I am sure the Gravy Train schools are counting on the Big12 deal being better or at least close to breakeven to the current ACC deal over the next 12 years. Especially since the Big12 will go out to bid again around 2030.​
To G5: Wake, BC and Louisville. Obviously not a better conference, but G5 is where they would likely end up after 2036. These schools make $17M today and might make $7M in the AAC. So the 7 gravy train schools buy-off the 3 Left Behind. Each of the 7 gravy train schools puts $10M annually in a pooled account that is divided up by the 3 left. $70M split 3 ways is $23.3M and combined with the $7M AAC payout the 3 left behind will make $30.3M annually. Quite a bit more than the current $17M the Left Behind group makes in base ACC $. But would the AAC want a cut to take those schools? Afterall, does Tulane or Memphis want to make $23M less than the ACC Left Behinds.​
The one issue Double Fries didn't mention is future 12 team playoff money. There is a big difference between what P5 & G5 schools will make. I would think the Left Behind group would want a piece of playoff money through 2036.

Never said it would be easy. But it would be a financial win/win for all 14 ACC schools vs. today. And funny enough, funded by the SEC & Big10 TV money.
You forget that the grant of rights when challenged could mean the former conference gets the media income from the new conference.

So say Clemson makes 17M per year from the ACC, and they leave for the SEC. They are not just on the hook for only what they would be paid by the ACC, and not only the amount that offsets what the other members make. But what they earn no matter where they go, and total, not just the offset value.

So if Clemson goes to the SEC for a $65M per year payday from media, they may owe the entire 65M to the ACC since they own those media rights, and what they earn from them.

The issue is how everything goes is if it goes to court no one knows how it will end up, and there is a huge amount of risk for those schools and future conference, which makes it much more challenging.

The entire premise that the ACC could dissolve is harder than some claim. It is not just 8 teams votes. It is 8 teams or majority of teams left, that still have voting rights.

There are so many legal issues here that make this so difficult, not impossible, but very difficult. And even if they manage to dissolve the conference that still doesnt mean some of the schools will not have a legal argument against the others.

And If ESPN works to negotiate certain teams out of the conference and not others, it opens them up to lawsuits as well.
 
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exCyDing

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Notre Dame's gonna wanna get paid. I am sure they feel a lot like FSU and Clemson and want to keep up with Big10/SEC money to make sure they can be competitive on the field, facilities and coach salaries.

They might be able to do that staying independent if NBC ups their current $25M/year deal. The NBC deal is only for ND home games. It would be interesting to see what ND gets from the ACC on a per game basis in FB. I am assuming the USC & Stanford games are treated similar to the CyHawk.
ND gets $10m from the ACC deal and $26m from NBC, but that’s up in 2025. ND was looking for $75m, but projections put $60m as a more likely deal. $60m would give them a slight edge over the B10.

If they had to move their non-FB to the Big East, they might only lose $1-2m (Big East is doing a new deal now, their current pays $4.6m) but frees up 5 FB games. Is that a blessing or a curse? With 9 game conference slates, it might get tougher to fill out their schedule with decent opponents.

All told, I think they’re plenty happy with the status quo.
 
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WhoISthis

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ND gets $10m from the ACC deal and $26m from NBC, but that’s up in 2025. ND was looking for $75m, but projections put $60m as a more likely deal. $60m would give them a slight edge over the B10.

If they had to move their non-FB to the Big East, they might only lose $1-2m (Big East is doing a new deal now, their current pays $4.6m) but frees up 5 FB games. Is that a blessing or a curse? With 9 game conference slates, it might get tougher to fill out their schedule with decent opponents.

All told, I think they’re plenty happy with the status quo.

You can hear insiders say otherwise on ND’s happiness with status quo - and recall Swarbricks “2 conference orbit” comments last spring or summer.

But even if they are happy with it, that’s just more of a reason the BIG is a threat to ESPN by a southern route to ND. If ESPN doesn’t prevent ACC free agency, BIG and its horde of networks will be looking to offer on ACC schools simply to corral ND. When that happens is really of no cost to Fox or Big 10, but it only gets more difficult for ESPN’s to retain what it wants the closer we get to 2036

I don’t think it’s likely but Depending on how badly Fox and BIG want ND, you could see real horse trading. Espn undoubtedly doesn’t want to lose both its ND option (via ACC) or top ACC schools. It also wouldn’t mind getting a piece of BIG at fair price, and good late night inventory. Say, pull the rumored $150 million to PAC, spend that to execute more PAC, ND and several ACC to BIG. NBC picks up $50 million on ND plus ESPN current bargain of $10.
 
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SEIOWA CLONE

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He is the scenario I think he is laying.

To SEC: FSU, Miami, Clemson & GA Tech​
To Big10: UNC, Virginia, Duke & Notre Dame​

So that is 7 current ACC schools on the SEC/Big10 gravy train- Making $600M more over the next decade or so. IMO ND gives the Big10 a lot of financial flexibility to take 4.

To Big12: Pitt, Va Tech, NCST, Syracuse. I am sure the Gravy Train schools are counting on the Big12 deal being better or at least close to breakeven to the current ACC deal over the next 12 years. Especially since the Big12 will go out to bid again around 2030.​
To G5: Wake, BC and Louisville. Obviously not a better conference, but G5 is where they would likely end up after 2036. These schools make $17M today and might make $7M in the AAC. So the 7 gravy train schools buy-off the 3 Left Behind. Each of the 7 gravy train schools puts $10M annually in a pooled account that is divided up by the 3 left. $70M split 3 ways is $23.3M and combined with the $7M AAC payout the 3 left behind will make $30.3M annually. Quite a bit more than the current $17M the Left Behind group makes in base ACC $. But would the AAC want a cut to take those schools? Afterall, does Tulane or Memphis want to make $23M less than the ACC Left Behinds.​
The one issue Double Fries didn't mention is future 12 team playoff money. There is a big difference between what P5 & G5 schools will make. I would think the Left Behind group would want a piece of playoff money through 2036.

Never said it would be easy. But it would be a financial win/win for all 14 ACC schools vs. today. And funny enough, funded by the SEC & Big10 TV money.
The B12 will take Louisville over Syracuse, fits better in the geography of the conference, and their programs is basically the same. Why take Syracuse and make conference teams fly all the way to upper NY state, when they could fly to Kentucky.
 

isucy86

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You forget that the grant of rights when challenged could mean the former conference gets the media income from the new conference.

So say Clemson makes 17M per year from the ACC, and they leave for the SEC. They are not just on the hook for only what they would be paid by the ACC, and not only the amount that offsets what the other members make. But what they earn no matter where they go, and total, not just the offset value.

So if Clemson goes to the SEC for a $65M per year payday from media, they may owe the entire 65M to the ACC since they own those media rights, and what they earn from them.

The issue is how everything goes is if it goes to court no one knows how it will end up, and there is a huge amount of risk for those schools and future conference, which makes it much more challenging.

The entire premise that the ACC could dissolve is harder than some claim. It is not just 8 teams votes. It is 8 teams or majority of teams left, that still have voting rights.

There are so many legal issues here that make this so difficult, not impossible, but very difficult. And even if they manage to dissolve the conference that still doesnt mean some of the schools will not have a legal argument against the others.

And If ESPN works to negotiate certain teams out of the conference and not others, it opens them up to lawsuits as well.

If his vlog has merit, dissolution means the GOR goes away. No ACC, No GOR.

I think there is a subtlety to his arguement. It's not like Texas, Oklahoma, USC or UCLA basically telling their current conference they were moving on. What he's saying FSU, Clemson (or a 3rd party) convince other schools they are also better off outside the ACC. Obviously, if those schools put out feelers and find the Big10 and/or SEC is interested, they will be on the dissolution train. If they can get 8 schools on board, then they bring a vote. In that scenario Clemson, FSU, etc. etc. still have a vote. Why else would FSU's AD be so open, but also provide alternatives like revenue sharing. I guarantee that UNC, UVA, GaTech, Miami, Duke, etc. have already or are planning to gauge their Big10/SEC interest. If I'm BC's President, there would be calls to Notre Dame's President.

Really no different than what Oregon & Washington did with Big10 Meetings. Guys like Phil Knight can do a lot of legwork for a school and still allow a President or AD deniability.
 

isucy86

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The B12 will take Louisville over Syracuse, fits better in the geography of the conference, and their programs is basically the same. Why take Syracuse and make conference teams fly all the way to upper NY state, when they could fly to Kentucky.
We already make teams fly from Iowa, Texas, Oklahoma, etc. to West Virginia or Central Florida. So flying to Syracuse isn't all that different. Syracuse is just as close to Morgantown as Louisville drive wise and closer to Pitt.

Both teams have similar athletic programs in FB & Hoops. Both have great hoops traditions. Syracuse would provide visibility in NYC, maybe even better than Rutgers. It would be great for hoops recruiting.

Academically, Syracuse is a former AAU school like ISU. They dropped their membership about a decade ago. US News has Syracuse ranked #62 Nationally, whereas Louisville is #182.
 

Gorm

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You think all of these contracts are different? They are all almost carbon copies of each other. But you do you.


"What’s also similar is the language in the original ACC agreement compared to the language in the Big 12 agreement forged a year earlier. Several passages appear to be copied verbatim. This includes a key section titled “Miscellaneous” in each that likely would be of particular interest to anyone wishing to break the agreement."

Maybe you can give me a link to prove the SEC contracts are drastically different than every other conferences.

By the way there is direct links to 3 conferences GORs here among other receipts in this article. Read a few.
Yay more theory. Get back to me when you have case law or a link to the SEC / ESPN contract.
 
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Stormin

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We already make teams fly from Iowa, Texas, Oklahoma, etc. to West Virginia or Central Florida. So flying to Syracuse isn't all that different. Syracuse is just as close to Morgantown as Louisville drive wise and closer to Pitt.

Both teams have similar athletic programs in FB & Hoops. Both have great hoops traditions. Syracuse would provide visibility in NYC, maybe even better than Rutgers. It would be great for hoops recruiting.

Academically, Syracuse is a former AAU school like ISU. They dropped their membership about a decade ago. US News has Syracuse ranked #62 Nationally, whereas Louisville is #182.

Syracuse is a terrible choice. Stop.
 

AuH2O

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He is the scenario I think he is laying.

To SEC: FSU, Miami, Clemson & GA Tech​
To Big10: UNC, Virginia, Duke & Notre Dame​

So that is 7 current ACC schools on the SEC/Big10 gravy train- Making $600M more over the next decade or so. IMO ND gives the Big10 a lot of financial flexibility to take 4.

To Big12: Pitt, Va Tech, NCST, Syracuse. I am sure the Gravy Train schools are counting on the Big12 deal being better or at least close to breakeven to the current ACC deal over the next 12 years. Especially since the Big12 will go out to bid again around 2030.​
To G5: Wake, BC and Louisville. Obviously not a better conference, but G5 is where they would likely end up after 2036. These schools make $17M today and might make $7M in the AAC. So the 7 gravy train schools buy-off the 3 Left Behind. Each of the 7 gravy train schools puts $10M annually in a pooled account that is divided up by the 3 left. $70M split 3 ways is $23.3M and combined with the $7M AAC payout the 3 left behind will make $30.3M annually. Quite a bit more than the current $17M the Left Behind group makes in base ACC $. But would the AAC want a cut to take those schools? Afterall, does Tulane or Memphis want to make $23M less than the ACC Left Behinds.​
The one issue Double Fries didn't mention is future 12 team playoff money. There is a big difference between what P5 & G5 schools will make. I would think the Left Behind group would want a piece of playoff money through 2036.

Never said it would be easy. But it would be a financial win/win for all 14 ACC schools vs. today. And funny enough, funded by the SEC & Big10 TV money.
But again this all only works if the conference teams in the SEC and Big 10 make the same or more money. That means the media partners need to be willing to pay Big 10 and SEC money to the likes of UVA, GT and Duke. These are not high, or even mediocre value football brands. That’s step one in all this.
 

exCyDing

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You can hear insiders say otherwise on ND’s happiness with status quo - and recall Swarbricks “2 conference orbit” comments last spring or summer.

But even if they are happy with it, that’s just more of a reason the BIG is a threat to ESPN by a southern route to ND. If ESPN doesn’t prevent ACC free agency, BIG and its horde of networks will be looking to offer on ACC schools simply to corral ND. When that happens is really of no cost to Fox or Big 10, but it only gets more difficult for ESPN’s to retain what it wants the closer we get to 2036

I don’t think it’s likely but Depending on how badly Fox and BIG want ND, you could see real horse trading. Espn undoubtedly doesn’t want to lose both its ND option (via ACC) or top ACC schools. It also wouldn’t mind getting a piece of BIG at fair price, and good late night inventory. Say, pull the rumored $150 million to PAC, spend that to execute more PAC, ND and several ACC to BIG. NBC picks up $50 million on ND plus ESPN current bargain of $10.
I've got to believe ND is fairly committed to remaining independent in football. There's really 3 things they need to keep it:
  1. Keep pace with the B10/SEC financially. If they get an NBC deal around $60m, they'll be a nose ahead of the B10 with their ACC money. They're not going to get more money in any conference until 2032 at the earliest. This box is checked.
  2. Maintain CFP access. The expanded playoff will assure this. This box is checked.
  3. Have a good home for their non-football sports. The ACC is a perfect fit for what they need. Yes, they could shift to the Big East if need be, but they'd lose 5 guaranteed FB games. With conferences going to 9 games and consolidating, it's only going to get tougher for them to fill out their schedule with good to great games. They have 3 annuals - Stanford, Navy and USC. Scheduling in 4 variable games each year is far easier than 9.
This is where it gets back to needing to have all 15 ACC members on board to agree to dissolve. I could see ND refusing at any price, because they 1) don't need the money and 2) it would cause headaches that money alone won't solve.

I think you're fixated on ESPN wanting to retain certain ACC brands past the GOR. While the answer is yes, it's not really a situation where they need to throw the kitchen sink at it. Afterall, they could spend $100s of millions to get a couple schools in the SEC only to lose those rights in 2034. If anything, I'd think they'd prioritize keeping the SEC's rights over FSU/Clemson/UNC.
 

isucy86

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But again this all only works if the conference teams in the SEC and Big 10 make the same or more money. That means the media partners need to be willing to pay Big 10 and SEC money to the likes of UVA, GT and Duke. These are not high, or even mediocre value football brands. That’s step one in all this.
Agreed, but that's where ND comes in. They have elite value and can compensate for a lower value school. No different than Penn State & let's say Rutgers combined value or Ohio State & NW.

If the networks won't pay or lack visibility, then it couldn't happen.
 

isucy86

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Syracuse is a terrible choice. Stop.
The reality is Syracuse would be a better choice than schools already in the Big12. And Louisville and Cincy are too similar.

But that is a similar issue the Big10 and SEC face in adding/not adding ACC schools.
 

Stormin

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The reality is Syracuse would be a better choice than schools already in the Big12. And Louisville and Cincy are too similar.

But that is a similar issue the Big10 and SEC face in adding/not adding ACC schools.

ACC has their teams tied up with the GOR. Till 2036. Stop considering the poor choices from the ACC at this time. Stop. Wait a decade.
 

SEIOWA CLONE

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We already make teams fly from Iowa, Texas, Oklahoma, etc. to West Virginia or Central Florida. So flying to Syracuse isn't all that different. Syracuse is just as close to Morgantown as Louisville drive wise and closer to Pitt.

Both teams have similar athletic programs in FB & Hoops. Both have great hoops traditions. Syracuse would provide visibility in NYC, maybe even better than Rutgers. It would be great for hoops recruiting.

Academically, Syracuse is a former AAU school like ISU. They dropped their membership about a decade ago. US News has Syracuse ranked #62 Nationally, whereas Louisville is #182.
But Syracuse is also further away from every school in the conference than Louisville is and if you take them over Syracuse you have three schools Pitt, WV and Louisville all the same area. We already will have a Florida school on an island by itself, why add another one in Syracuse?

This idea that Syracuse is going to bring NY City into the conference like Rutgers does, doesn't work for the B12 like it does for the B10 for one reason, the conference does not have a TV network, let alone one based on the idea that by adding a new state, you get to charge that state the premium rate instead of the lower rate.
The B10 adding Rutgers makes sense money wise for them, but adding Syracuse adds nothing money wise to the B12 than Louisville doesn't.
 

Die4Cy

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Experience tells us that in the modern age conferences don't dissolve, they water themselves down by pulling up G5 schools to their ranks, which arguably weakens payouts from TV networks on balance.
 

AuH2O

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Agreed, but that's where ND comes in. They have elite value and can compensate for a lower value school. No different than Penn State & let's say Rutgers combined value or Ohio State & NW.

If the networks won't pay or lack visibility, then it couldn't happen.
But you are only explaining this for the easy partner. Of course it is easier to find a pathway that makes sense for Fox, who could gain access to teams and help them get ND.

ESPN has all these ACC teams for $17m per team per year. In order to make it break even for the SEC ESPN has to up the SEC deal for the four teams for SEC money, give a raise to those going to the Big 12, and lose access to those going to the Big 10. In 2022 ABC/ESPN had 6 Notre Dame games.

This only happens if ESPN makes it happen, and I haven’t seen an explanation that addresses the financial case that makes sense for ESPN. Whether through enticing dissolution or settling on exit fees, people throw out theoretical scenarios but ultimately they end up with ESPN getting less inventory for more money.