Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[2speedy1]

The most fascinating thing that happened last week to me is Gene Smith’s revelation that OSU considered going independent. Considering this came out while the b1g is courting the most valuable CFB program who happens to currently be an independent is interesting to say the least. So either, A: he was unaware of the b1g’s pursuit of ND and committed a hugely coincidental faux pas, (extremely doubtful) B: He’s not crazy about OSU playing second fiddle to a new b1g member after being the 800# gorilla in the room for so long. (45% likelihood) or C: He’s firing a shot across the bow of schools like NW and Iowa to forewarn them about impending unequal revenue sharing.(45% likelihood) I’d really like to get @ChrisMWilliams opinion on this.

It seems to me after listening to Gene Smith quotes from the last year +/- , he has become a complete tOSU egomaniac.

 

[MugNight]

Hypothetical… is it better long term if:
- XII, in a position of power, puts chips on table and pushes for a massive merger with best of PAC 12 and ACC to counterbalance SEC/B1G in the first “24 team super conference” that spans all time zones.

Or

- XII raids PAC, ACC stands pat more or less. Both conferences forge ahead as what they are in a P4

 

[Stormin]

I dont know where some of these people come up with these numbers. I think half of them pull them out of their @$$. But regardless, in the case of the Big 12 it would be more valuable because there would be one less major conference for content to bid for. 1 less conference for major drawing games.

Individual value is different than value as a whole. What a particular school and their possible future matchups value is. Especially if there is no PAC 12 left for those games to fill slots. That means any network that wants content has to get it somewhere else, ie the Big 12. As the B1G and SEC and ACC appear tied up.

Taking Arizona Schools, Utah, Colorado, literally rips the heart out of the PAC 12. Then you can see what falls to you. You have a solid Conference.

 

[isucy86]

The more I think about this, I say take those four, which would probably be the end of the PAC. With that, it’ll force Oregon and Washington to make a move. If the BIG or SEC decide to not expand, then that probably only leaves the BIG 12 as an option. You take Washington and Oregon. Fully knowing that they may be gone in the future. Which would be ok, because it wouldn’t be a surprise when it happens.

The goal would be for the Arizona schools, Utah, and Colorado. And Oregon and Washington are just the icing on the cake if they come.

Those 4 schools joining the Big12 makes complete sense. All pretty equal, no alpha dog trying to put their interest above the conference.

The article mentions Arizona's fit with the Texas schools. But from a visiting team ticket sales- a lot of native Iowan's and Kansans in Arizona.

I am mixed about Washington and Oregon, especially if they would push to have Oregon State and Washington State as part of the package. But, the Washington/Oregon/Stanford/Cal combination probably has value to TV types who look at MSA eyeballs.

One reality of a combined Big12/Pac12 could be not playing teams within the new conference with any frequency. Does it really matter if Cincy plays Utah but twice over a 10 year period?

I look at a Big12/Pac12 consolidation as a means to maximize TV $ and not creating strong rivalries.

 

[Acylum]

It seems to me after listening to Gene Smith quotes from the last year +/- , he has become a complete tOSU egomaniac.

Why shouldn’t he be? That’s all that conference has.

 

[exCyDing]

Hypothetical… is it better long term if:
- XII, in a position of power, puts chips on table and pushes for a massive merger with best of PAC 12 and ACC to counterbalance SEC/B1G in the first “24 team super conference” that spans all time zones.

Or

- XII raids PAC, ACC stands pat more or less. Both conferences forge ahead as what they are in a P4

I think reality is the second option for four reasons.

1. Of the lesser three, the Big XII had the best media deal. That means nobody is leaving the Big XII, and someone getting an invite is getting a pay bump.
2. The Big-10 and SEC have probably taken everyone they want from the Big XII and probably won’t be back for anyone else.
3. The Big-10 is in the process of taking what they want from the PAC. Not sure there’s really any mutual interest between the remaining PAC members and the SEC.
4. The Big-10 and SEC haven’t pillaged the ACC because of the GOR. That will change when the end of the GOR gets closer and buyouts make economic sense or it expires completely. I don’t think anyone in the P5 is going to sign up for a conference paying less money and more likelihood of instability in the next decade if they have another option.

 

[AuH2O]

They don't have that shot now. ISU could go undefeated and ESPN would still be saying a 2 loss tOSU deserves a spot because of the eye test.

Completely false. For the last 3 seasons ISU has been one of, if not the highest ranked teams given its number of losses. The CFP committee has loved ISU.

 

[cyatheart]

Cal is awful. I realize the whole Colorado bailed on us, but we can just use that as fuel for the rivalry. Colorado is much better than Cal for the Conference and history with many of the schools.

Agree that cal is worthless. But Colorado isn't far ahead of cal. I get they were old big 8, but They are a far cry from where they were in the early 90s hay day. The pac 10 decision killed them. Full of debt, facilities are awful, and nobody cares. I really think Colorado is one of the least valuable schools in what was the power 5. They would be fortunate to be in any conference right now.

 

[NWICY]

I don’t know why people keep saying they’re not worried about the ACC. Their current deal doesn’t preclude them from trying to add teams.

Where is their money going to come from to add the teams?

 

[SCNCY]

Those 4 schools joining the Big12 makes complete sense. All pretty equal, no alpha dog trying to put their interest above the conference.

The article mentions Arizona's fit with the Texas schools. But from a visiting team ticket sales- a lot of native Iowan's and Kansans in Arizona.

I am mixed about Washington and Oregon, especially if they would push to have Oregon State and Washington State as part of the package. But, the Washington/Oregon/Stanford/Cal combination probably has value to TV types who look at MSA eyeballs.

One reality of a combined Big12/Pac12 could be not playing teams within the new conference with any frequency. Does it really matter if Cincy plays Utah but twice over a 10 year period?

I look at a Big12/Pac12 consolidation as a means to maximize TV $ and not creating strong rivalries.

I think you only take Washington and Oregon on their own. If they try to force the issue, you tell them no. Oregon and Washington would be at risk of being left behind and their brands loosing value in an inferior conference.

 

[NWICY]

They can come back now that they’ve shot their balls off.

What the hell? Shot themselves with the t-shirt cannon?

That ranks right up there with when Herky(?) got racked by the errant pass.

 

[Clonehomer]

Completely false. For the last 3 seasons ISU has been one of, if not the highest ranked teams given its number of losses. The CFP committee has loved ISU.

There's the committee love for the NY6 bowls and then there's the playoffs. The TV execs pick the playoff teams. If not directly then by telling their studio analysts who to promote. Like it or not, the ESPN analysts have a huge bearing on who gets in.

ISU is a good story for them, but they don't want a small market team in the playoffs.

 

[RustShack]

ESPN doesn't want to blow up the ACC, they already own all of its rights, just like they do the SEC.

If the B1G is really going to be worth $100M each there isn't ANY school in the ACC that can pull their own weight.

The only thing the ACC and the Big XII need to hold things together on their end, is to be guaranteed a playoff spot for their champions. That's totally in the hands of the TV networks.

Now, the PAC might want to try and poach away the best teams from the Big 12 as some have suggested, but honestly they weren't getting media dollars with UCLA and USC, so any pitch they make to our schools would need to be taken with a huge grain of salt. The reality is, the Big 12 is in the stronger position for once. We only lack in support from the talking heads of college football, which is no small thing, but our teams draw good TV numbers by comparison to the PAC, and that's what you get paid for.

Honestly it would be fantastic if your scenario were true, I don’t think it is, but if no school in the ACC can pull their weight in the B1G/SEC then there’s a good chance in the future their top schools would leave for the Big12.

 

[JM4CY]

What the hell? Shot themselves with the t-shirt cannon?

That ranks right up there with when Herky(?) got racked by the errant pass.

 

[cyclonewino]

Insanity - doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. It is time to quit the conference affiliations and form a college football league, caps on NIL, restrictions on transfers, regional games and high tech officiating. One league of those left out of the NFL Lite working together on media contracts. Let the Big/SEC pay their players, have massive NIL deals, have turnover and ego fights and great football and poor football due to all the issues of egos and turnover. Most of the kids in this league will never make the NFL, but deserve a great college experience and education. We need to quit the model where the media gets to play divide and conquer. Schools need work together for the benefit of college athletics.

 

[CloneGuy8]

At what point to the Alabama's and Ohio State's get tired of subsidizing the Minnesota's and Mississippi State's in their conference, and create their own super league? I hope it doesn't get to that point, but the way things are going nothing would surprise me.

 

[cayin]

At what point to the Alabama's and Ohio State's get tired of subsidizing the Minnesota's and Missippi State's in their conference, and create their own super league? I hope it doesn't get to that point, but the way things are going nothing would surprise me.

Actually, I kind of hope it does get to that. Pisses me off to see schools like Minnesota, Iowa, Northwestern, Rutgers, Purdue, Vandy, Illinios, Miss State, Indiana, etc..get to 100 mil a year because they are subsidized. They get it by their lucky historical association. The more schools that drop out of the super league and end up on our level, the healthier the sport from an Iowa State perspective.

 

[aeroclone]

Cal is awful. I realize the whole Colorado bailed on us, but we can just use that as fuel for the rivalry. Colorado is much better than Cal for the Conference and history with many of the schools.

Totally agree, in reality we shouldn't do it. But I harbor a ton of resentment to the 4 original defectors from the B12. I view those as the first dominoes to this whole mess. When you look back at the original B12 schools, that was a conference that should have been able to go toe to toe with the B1G and SEC, but the schools refused to work well together and decided to take their ball and leave instead. For that, I'll never forgive any of them.

 

[awd4cy]

Watching Pac 12 basketball, Arizona has a crazy atmosphere. ASU does too with the curtain of distraction.

That curtain of distraction would take the cake for dumbest tradition in the Big 12.

 

[twojman]

There's the committee love for the NY6 bowls and then there's the playoffs. The TV execs pick the playoff teams. If not directly then by telling their studio analysts who to promote. Like it or not, the ESPN analysts have a huge bearing on who gets in.

ISU is a good story for them, but they don't want a small market team in the playoffs.

LoL

Follow @cfbmatrix on Twitter, he's got the formula figured out. If you truly think this I have to think there are other conspiracy theories you have. I've tried to explain this formula on here before, try and find some old posts and you'll see how it works