Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[jdoggivjc]

The PAC12 needs to add teams regardless of the scenario.

If OU/UW stay, then they need a couple to get back to 12 and look respectable. No different than what the Big12 did when OuT happened - add some warm bodies.

If OU/UW leave, then they gotta try to add 4 to keep the conference alive, even though it will be severely diluted. Even more warm bodies!

If OU/UW and 4-6 others leave too, then the 2-4 left behind will essentially join the MWC, but call it the PAC12 because the brand name is bigger.

They gotta start looking around and talking to people no matter what happens. No choice. No different than what the Big12 did when OuT happened.

They would also need to tell Cal and Stanford to STFU, because if the Pac were to survive, they can't be picky about who they let in anymore. Over the last decade + Cal and Stanford rejected Pac expansions that included Boise St, SDSU, and UNLV based on academics and BYU for religious reasons. If anything, Stanford and Cal might be the biggest detriments to the Pac's survival than anything else.

 

[2speedy1]

OK People I have a few things to do, then I'm gonna go watch the I-Cubs tonight so, I hope I don't miss too much over the next few hours...LOL

I'm sure you guys will keep an eye on everything though!!

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Sorry if this was shared already. This is apparently a journalist connected to the Maryland AD who broke the Maryland to B1G news last decade.



I think this would be really phenomenal news for the Big 12, who would then likely have their pick of the rest of the Pac-9. Washington, Cal, Stanford, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and ASU would all be viable; the Big 12 could choose to take 4 or 6 of them.

I guess the B1G could go further but this journo is not talking about Washington and Stanford in the same way (which are not as valuable as UO or certainly as ND).

 

[heitclone]

I don’t think it was an official statement although it looks like that

It's from here I've never heard of this site until now so take it for what you will

USC & UCLA Join Big Ten; What's Next for Notre Dame, SEC & Big 12?

The Big Ten has officially voted to confirm USC and UCLA as new conference members. Now what's next for Notre Dame, the SEC and Big 12?

www.actionnetwork.com

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Iowa is a top 20-25 revenue university....... They are even ahead of Wisconsin in that regard. for comparison ISU is between 35-40.Any

Any study that shows that EIU has more value or brand than USC, Oregon, Washington, Miami, or UCLA is garbage. Right now the league would exchange EIU for anyone of those five schools.

The value for EIU is that it is in the B10, with the money that the conference provides. Take them out of the conference and they have less value the Oky. State does.

They are in a small rural population state, with no major TV markets close to them, a little above average history,

 

[Thinker]

Any study that shows that EIU has more value or brand than USC, Oregon, Washington, Miami, or UCLA is garbage. Right now the league would exchange EIU for anyone of those five schools.

The value for EIU is that it is in the B10, with the money that the conference provides. Take them out of the conference and they have less value the Oky. State does.

They are in a small rural population state, with no major TV markets close to them, a little above average history,

I was wrong on that. Iowa is top 20 and ISU is around 45. Iowa has a lot of alumni and yes, random Tavern fans that root for them. For all of you that do not like Tavern fans, well having them puts Iowa in a great spot.

 

[Kinch]

I was with you up until the point where you thought the Pac 12 would have been an ultimate winner and the SEC would have been an ultimate loser in this scenario. The SEC would have still been #1 and the Pac still #3 - and it's very possible that the Pac could be going through what the Big 12 is currently going through with OU and UT had this scenario played out the way you want. The bottom line is the Big 10 still controls the major northern media markets and the SEC still controls the most lusted after recruiting grounds and one of the most passionate followings in all of college sports - that doesn't change even if the Pac won that round of realignment.

The SEC won only two outright national championships ( 92 and 98 ) and one shared in a 25 year period from 1981 to 2005. It has only been recently, past 16 years, that the SEC has been the juggernaut it currently is now. I would like to see their ratings the. Vs.other leagues from 1990 to 2005. I would also like to see the ratings of the orange bowl vs. Sugar bowl in the 1970s and 80s when the big 8 had a tie in with the orange bowl. If memory serves me, then those two bowls went head to head.

 

[cyclones500]

There are straight up 20 sports I’d rather add than baseball.

List? (You can't count beach volleyball or rowing)

Seriously, I'd like to see a list. Not to critique (I have no counter-list or prefs of any kind) - just curious.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I was wrong on that. Iowa is top 20 and ISU is around 45. Iowa has a lot of alumni and yes, random Tavern fans that root for them. For all of you that do not like Tavern fans, well having them puts Iowa in a great spot.

EIU is one of the smallest schools in the conference, student wise, and while they have a ton of tavern hawks in Iowa, no way that continue for the rest of the country.

Look at your own boards, there are people saying the same thing, that if this does go to 24 teams, and the big schools break away to form their own league, then EIU could just as easily be on the outside looking in as one of those 24 teams.
Just like Purdue, Indiana, Miss. St and NW.

You keep thinking that once this 2 conference B10 and SEC deal works out that EIU will be assured a spot in the league just because you are currently in the B10. That is thinking foolishly, because EIU brings nothing to the table unlike Oregon, Washington, USC, UCLA, Clemson, Miami, Florida St, UNC and UV, Stanford and a couple of others. There are only going to be so many spots in this super league, and the Ohio States and Alabama's of the world are not going to allow a school like EIU that cannot bring in real money into the league to get a shot, just because they currently are in the either the B10 or SEC.

 

[alarson]

Wilner is tweeting this now and it makes sense. Is killing the Pac 10 by adding the AZ schools, Utah and CO worth taking a smaller payout? Because those schools certainly don't add any money to the pot.

In this case, killing the Pac 10 in exchange for some stability probably is worth a smaller payout is my guess.

I would have a hard time believing those 4 don't bring enough value to the pot in the big 12. We just invited 4 G5 schools most/all of which are likely less valuable than these 4.

 

[Cyrealist]

SEC could add Florida State, NC State, Clemson, Virginia Tech for 20 as well.

Other than Clemson, would any of those add anything other than numbers?

And we are basically back to regular college football, but with no Bama, Ohio St, Texas et al.

Sounds good to me.

 

[CloneFanInKC]

I was wrong on that. Iowa is top 20 and ISU is around 45. Iowa has a lot of alumni and yes, random Tavern fans that root for them. For all of you that do not like Tavern fans, well having them puts Iowa in a great spot.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

I would have a hard time believing those 4 don't bring enough value to the pot in the big 12. We just invited 4 G5 schools most/all of which are likely less valuable than these 4.

Couldn't agree with this more. At absolute WORST, these schools might slightly lower the payout in exchange for demolishing an entire conference and helping to secure the Big 12. That is worth it. But I strongly suspect that they would not lower the payout.

 

[DSM4Cy]

I would have a hard time believing those 4 don't bring enough value to the pot in the big 12. We just invited 4 G5 schools most/all of which are likely less valuable than these 4.

I bet BYU would provide just as much value, but you’re right. We are talking about 4 big state schools, 3 that are the biggest in growing states. It’s a no-brainer.

 

[clonedude]

Iowa and ISU are in the same boat in that..... no other conference would want to poach them.

 

[isucy86]

$125M per school per year might be on the conservative side if that happens.

It would be interesting to see how the TV Partners value each school. The $100M figure is thrown out by people, but I would be very surprised if that isn't a 2028/29 number. I looked and a May 2022 article indicated pre-covid the Big10 payout was $769M in 2019/20 or $55M/school. No way the Big10 is suddenly worth $100M/school to Fox 4 years later.

But lets use the $100M/school figure for easy math or $1.4B in total. Hypothetically, how would that $1.4M be split if schools earned their real value? Here's my guestimate. I could be way off! But its a jumping off point.

Ohio State $200M
Michigan $175M
Penn State $175M
Wisconsin $125M
Michigan State $100M
Nebraska $100M
Iowa $90M
Minnesota $80M
Illinois $70M
Indiana $65M
Purdue $65M
Maryland $60M
Northwestern $50M
Rutgers $45M

So what are potential new schools worth?
USC $150M
UCLA $125M
Notre Dame $250M
Oregon $125M

So that bumps the Big10 Total revenue from $1.4B to $2.05B or $114M per school on an equal revenue share basis. IMO that's why eventually (next contract) the elite teams are eventually going to push for their REAL VALUE vs. equal revenue sharing. What are schools like Iowa, Minnesota, etc going to say?

 

[Kinch]

Should we bring up the fact that Iowas chances of ever making a conference title game and therefore a playoff just decreased exponentially?

Suddenly, going to the pinstripe bowl every year looks appealing to hok fans.

 

[clonedude]

Suddenly, going to the pinstripe bowl every year looks appealing to hok fans.

That will be a dream for them.

 

[BCClone]

Any study that shows that EIU has more value or brand than USC, Oregon, Washington, Miami, or UCLA is garbage. Right now the league would exchange EIU for anyone of those five schools.

The value for EIU is that it is in the B10, with the money that the conference provides. Take them out of the conference and they have less value the Oky. State does.

They are in a small rural population state, with no major TV markets close to them, a little above average history,

As the big ten adds schools, they keep knocking Iowa down a notch in the big ten. As the SEC adds, they knock them down a notch also.

 

[yowza]

Brutal on Bowelsby ..............

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/pac-12-acc-had-chance-to-save-themselves-botched-playoff-142405174.html