Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[CascadeClone]

I would assume we will hear about the Pac-12s future sometime later this year. Those TV contract negotiations will take place, and stuff will leak. I'll be really curious to see the chain reaction that creates.

I don't think the Big 10 makes any moves until the Pac-12 is "settled."

I think you're right, but also in combination with OuT negotiations and CFP changes. It's all one 5 foot diameter ball of tangled christmas lights.

If the Pac12 gets a good contract (40-50M per team) then we might see things stay fairly much the same as they are with a P5 setup. If they get a number that is disappointing, then there will be a lot more momentum for USC/Oregon/etc to want to do something else, and then all the weird stuff is in play.

 

[BCClone]

We'd all like to see Texas get slapped down. Actually, they've been getting slapped down (athletically) in the Big 12.

However, Texas is a different animal. They have greater fiscal resources than any other college in the country and they are the most popular school in a very fertile recruiting area. Over time, they have more margin for error than anybody else.

This is why the money chase at this point is dumb. Another 10-20 MM a year does not mean more success, it means you can fire a coach sooner since you can afford the buyout. Except it appears most ADs are just putting big buyouts in contracts and still hamstringing themselves.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Expansion and realignment will likely be revived once the B12 reaches a settlement with OUT/ESPN/SEC/Fox and that potentially includes the B10.

People on this board keep saying this but no one is waiting for a hypothetical settlement for realignment talks. At least from the Big10 side of things. Can’t speak for the ACC and PAC

 

[cyfan92]

Big 12 4.0 updated NET rankings - a/o 1/14/2022 at 10:30 A.M.

1-Baylor
5-Houston (#3 at Torvik and KenPom)
10-Kansrefs
13-Tech
24-Good Guys
30-BYU
37-West Virginia
52-UCF
54-TCU
67-Cincy
68-Okie Lite
90-K State

Losing #15-UT and #35 OU... League is not going to get any easier..

 

[WhoISthis]

People on this board keep saying this but no one is waiting for a hypothetical settlement for realignment talks. At least from the Big10 side of things. Can’t speak for the ACC and PAC

There’s this hope by some that the BIG and the Alliance have held off on making moves to dissolve the Big 12 so that OU and UT have to pay exit fees. And they’ve executed this in a manner in which it doesn’t immediately jeopardize the OuT settlement, and that ESPN doesn’t “know”, but yet has provided the needed valuation.

The $20 million is nice for the R8, but the other conferences don’t benefit. They’d benefit more getting OuT moved ASAP, making the SEC even more inclined to negotiate on CFP. They also have looming tv and broadcast right deals. I don’t think the ploy of getting the rate locked in, then moving KU with an automatic escalator works anymore.

Does ESPN benefit from getting out of the GOR? Sort of, but the R8 schools needed to dissolve aren’t leaving for less, nor would their new conferences accept a decline in pay. And if there were 4+ schools able to appreciably increase the value of the ACC and Pac12 (with their top brands) closer to P2, let alone keep BIG whole, the there’s no need for the R8 to be scattered across the country. They could hold out for getting schools from the P12 or ACC when they lose programs not content making half the P2

There may have initially been interest in the chaos, but imo that’s passed.

 

[WhoISthis]

This is why the money chase at this point is dumb. Another 10-20 MM a year does not mean more success, it means you can fire a coach sooner since you can afford the buyout. Except it appears most ADs are just putting big buyouts in contracts and still hamstringing themselves.

The money chase to P2 isn’t dumb, although it is a bit of a self fulfilling fear. OuT largely cemented it a P2, and had instead poaching the ACC or P12 would have stopped the P2 course

But chasing money jumping between different second rate conferences is a fool’s errand

 

[snowcraig2.0]

Oh I agree that those rankings aren’t the end all be all but they do matter to the Uni presidents. Like if WVU had bamas football program they still wouldn’t get a BIG (or acc) invite do to academics including their ranking.

The ACC invited Louisville. WVU would get in.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

The ACC invited Louisville. WVU would get in.

Louisville is not a great school, and WVU has been improving over the last few years, and yet WVU is still quite a bit worse than Louisville. By USNWR, the distance between Iowa State and Louisville is about the same as between Louisville and WVU. Iowa State has also been sliding over the last decade or so for reasons that would Cave this thread.

 

[AuH2O]

I think you're right, but also in combination with OuT negotiations and CFP changes. It's all one 5 foot diameter ball of tangled christmas lights.

If the Pac12 gets a good contract (40-50M per team) then we might see things stay fairly much the same as they are with a P5 setup. If they get a number that is disappointing, then there will be a lot more momentum for USC/Oregon/etc to want to do something else, and then all the weird stuff is in play.

If the PAC gets something like a 50m per team media deal, then all bets are off.

For the record 1 pm Pacific/4 pm eastern USC/UCLA on Fox drew 1.8 M.

12:30 Pacific/3:30 p.m. eastern Iowa State/Oklahoma State on Fox drew 2.7 M

12:30/3:30 Oregon/Stanford on ABC drew 2.6.

USC and Oregon are very good brands, and Oregon had some good ratings. But they get great slots ALL the time, they are a big name national program, and along with USC are way above the rest, though Utah is on the rise. If Washington can right the ship they will be a decent draw as well. But in the end the flagships of the PAC 12 are not that great, and they middle to bottom of that conference has zero interest for viewers.

 

[WhoISthis]

If the PAC gets something like a 50m per team media deal, then all bets are off.

For the record 1 pm Pacific/4 pm eastern USC/UCLA on Fox drew 1.8 M.

12:30 Pacific/3:30 p.m. eastern Iowa State/Oklahoma State on Fox drew 2.7 M

12:30/3:30 Oregon/Stanford on ABC drew 2.6.

USC and Oregon are very good brands, and Oregon had some good ratings. But they get great slots ALL the time, they are a big name national program, and along with USC are way above the rest, though Utah is on the rise. If Washington can right the ship they will be a decent draw as well. But in the end the flagships of the PAC 12 are not that great, and they middle to bottom of that conference has zero interest for viewers.

Agree

It will take the Pac12 getting a Hail Mary streaming deal, or subsidized by the networks from being anointed the 3rd conference in an effort to preserve national balance. They’ll have first-mover advantage with their deal being before the Big 12.

USC being good represents some upside, but it would be extremely risky for a network to pay that in full on this deal. The ratings just don’t justify a huge difference between the Pac12 and New Big 12 (or ACC).

The Pac12 has a west coast problem, and college football kind of a P12 problem. CFB on the whole makes more if the west coast programs do not slide further into irrelevancy. I’m not sure much can be done to change local viewership, but networks can get the rest of nation to care more if moving the top Pac12 brands to other conferences.

What makes the best 6-9 Pac12 brands more- being in the Big 12 or adding a pod of Big 12 teams? Obviously they’d rather make less than join the Big 12, but if joining the BIG?

 

[cykadelic2]

The Pac12 has a west coast problem, and college football kind of a P12 problem. CFB on the whole makes more if the west coast programs do not slide further into irrelevancy. I’m not sure much can be done to change local viewership, but networks can get the rest of nation to care more if moving the top Pac12 brands to other conferences.

What makes the best 6-9 Pac12 brands more- being in the Big 12 or adding a pod of Big 12 teams? Obviously they’d rather make less than join the Big 12, but if joining the BIG?

P12 needs to do both of the following for the rest of the nation to care more and increase payouts for existing schools:

1. Move football inventory off of PACN.
2. Have weekly conference or non con games in the 11 AM CT window. A scheduling Alliance with the B10 and ACC won't fully resolve this issue.

Both can be addressed with expansion with half or all of the R8 to the mutual benefit of all impacted schools, especially if Amazon, Apple, NBC/Peacock and/or CBS/Paramount gets engaged in the bidding. All four need or are interested in pursuing live sports content and one of them will likely pay a premium for it. CBS has made it known they want to backfill the SEC GOTW. Apple has previously talked to the P12 and could buy PACN. Apple is also talking to MLB about national mid week games. Peacock and USA Network both need more premium content while NBC could use more weekly games to supplement their ND package.

Any top brand P12 schools moving to the B10 torpedoes the Rose Bowl tie-ins and the B10 does not want to give that up for the foreseeable future.

 

[cykadelic2]

The $20 million is nice for the R8, but the other conferences don’t benefit. They’d benefit more getting OuT moved ASAP, making the SEC even more inclined to negotiate on CFP. They also have looming tv and broadcast right deals. I don’t think the ploy of getting the rate locked in, then moving KU with an automatic escalator works anymore.

Good read here on the CFP expansion stalemate. The SEC isn't the holdup here, it's the ACC.

 

[CascadeClone]

P12 needs to do both of the following for the rest of the nation to care more and increase payouts for existing schools:

1. Move football inventory off of PACN.
2. Have weekly conference or non con games in the 11 AM CT window. A scheduling Alliance with the B10 and ACC won't fully resolve this issue.

Both can be addressed with expansion with half or all of the R8 to the mutual benefit of all impacted schools, especially if Amazon, Apple, NBC/Peacock and/or CBS/Paramount gets engaged in the bidding. All four need or are interested in pursuing live sports content and one of them will likely pay a premium for it. CBS has made it known they want to backfill the SEC GOTW. Apple has previously talked to the P12 and could buy PACN. Apple is also talking to MLB about national mid week games. Peacock and USA Network both need more premium content while NBC could use more weekly games to supplement their ND package.

Any top brand P12 schools moving to the B10 torpedoes the Rose Bowl tie-ins and the B10 does not want to give that up for the foreseeable future.

A lot of us have said from the start that a Pac/Big12 tie up (whether poaching, alliance, or full merger to megaconference) made a ton of sense from a CST inventory standpoint. One way to get more money is to increase the value of the games, and 1pm is better than 9pm.

I still think everybody is waiting on the OuT to get settled. Meanwhile, it's all contingency planning and keep your powder dry.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

P12 needs to do both of the following for the rest of the nation to care more and increase payouts for existing schools:

1. Move football inventory off of PACN.
2. Have weekly conference or non con games in the 11 AM CT window. A scheduling Alliance with the B10 and ACC won't fully resolve this issue.

Both can be addressed with expansion with half or all of the R8 to the mutual benefit of all impacted schools, especially if Amazon, Apple, NBC/Peacock and/or CBS/Paramount gets engaged in the bidding. All four need or are interested in pursuing live sports content and one of them will likely pay a premium for it. CBS has made it known they want to backfill the SEC GOTW. Apple has previously talked to the P12 and could buy PACN. Apple is also talking to MLB about national mid week games. Peacock and USA Network both need more premium content while NBC could use more weekly games to supplement their ND package.

Any top brand P12 schools moving to the B10 torpedoes the Rose Bowl tie-ins and the B10 does not want to give that up for the foreseeable future.

Yeah the "scheduling alliance" is a running joke in the BIG (and for most other conferences. There is nothing in place to enforce this scheduling and just this year Michigan cancelled their series with UCLA because they didn't want to go to cali. Pretty sure at this point it was only publicized so it looked like the PAC and ACC were getting something for sitting on their hands.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Big 12 4.0 updated NET rankings - a/o 1/14/2022 at 10:30 A.M.

1-Baylor
5-Houston (#3 at Torvik and KenPom)
10-Kansrefs
13-Tech
24-Good Guys
30-BYU
37-West Virginia
52-UCF
54-TCU
67-Cincy
68-Okie Lite
90-K State

Losing #15-UT and #35 OU... League is not going to get any easier..

Personally I think the Big12 is the best CBB conference this year and could be set up to be the best for a few years to come. It will be very interesting to see how Houston and BYU do facing a real schedule every year instead of their usual cakewalk. I fully expect Houston to not be ranked most years.

 

[surly]

Dennis Dodd writes a lot but says little new regarding realignment.

Big 12 engaged in plans to split into two seven-team divisions beginning in 2023 amid realignment

The Big 12 is set to expand before Texas and Oklahoma leave, necessitating a divisional split

www.cbssports.com

BIG 12 NORTH	BIG 12 SOUTH
Cincinnati	Baylor
BYU	Houston
Iowa State	TCU
Kansas	Texas
Kansas State	Texas Tech
Oklahoma	UCF
Oklahoma State	West Virginia

 

[Al_4_State]

Dennis Dodd writes a lot but says little new regarding realignment.

Big 12 engaged in plans to split into two seven-team divisions beginning in 2023 amid realignment

The Big 12 is set to expand before Texas and Oklahoma leave, necessitating a divisional split

www.cbssports.com

BIG 12 NORTH	BIG 12 SOUTH
Cincinnati	Baylor
BYU	Houston
Iowa State	TCU
Kansas	Texas
Kansas State	Texas Tech
Oklahoma	UCF
Oklahoma State	West Virginia

I love this. We'll have a guaranteed cross division game in Texas or Florida every year too.

 

[theshadow]

Dodd doesn't seem to understand that OU and UT will be playing in the SEC in Fall 2025, not the Big 12.

We'll have at most, two seasons (not three) of 14 teams: 2023 and 2024.

The Big 12 will be back to 12 teams for the 2025 season (not 2026, as he indicates).

 

[KidSilverhair]

Whar muh pods?

 

[CascadeClone]

Dodd doesn't seem to understand that OU and UT will be playing in the SEC in Fall 2025, not the Big 12.

We'll have at most, two seasons (not three) of 14 teams: 2023 and 2024.

The Big 12 will be back to 12 teams for the 2025 season (not 2026, as he indicates).

I will still be surprised if OuT is in the Big12 in 22-23.