Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[WhoISthis]

Why would COVID factors hurt TV ratings in the PAC, and why would it be different for them? People throw out these dumb excuses for why the PAC TV ratings are garbage, and why their last media deal was garbage.

Maybe the PAC will get good money from one of those non-traditional media partners, but that can be a dangerous game. Like it or not ESPN/ABC and Fox’s promotion or lack thereof is a powerful thing.

One thing is certain, if the other conferences had plans on moving the leftover 8, they’ve either needlessly spent a lot of money in waiting, or everyone knows that enough are leaving to dissolve the conference at a later date

It’s tough to believe the latter. 3-4 schools across different conferences with different network partners and under the microscope is tough to keep quiet. Add in the numbers don’t really work, it it’s time to hunker down and wait for ACC and Pac12 to be poached

 

[WhoISthis]

The Pac 16 would have happened with Texas if ESPN doesn't come through with LHN to keep them in the B12.

The ACC's GOR and TV deal runs through 2036 and is very favorable for EPSN. It isn't doomed as you suggest prior to that and it can't dissolve based solely on Clemson, FSU, UNC, GA Tech and/or Virginia departing prior to GOR expiration.

It would have happened before that too if not for UT.
Yet it here we are. A decade of decline in the Pac12 and nothing in the Big 12 to materially change anything. Come be our far flung pod for still second rate revenue doesn’t have anymore appeal now

ESPN will be the one brokering the ACC dissolution. Consolidation is good for ESPN. Move top brands to SEC, some to Big 12 at parity, dump three to AAC. There’s no value being in a conference with an expiration- it will end much sooner than you think. If UNC wants a say in the breakup, it’s leverage is gone by 2030.

That’s assuming the GOR even valid if students are employees

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Have you checked out the Pac12 ratings? They may be sitting on some hidden streaming vendors and network partner, but they’re going to need it. Otherwise it makes more sense for the Pac12 to be picked off by the Big 10 and Big 12 than it does for any Big 12 school to willingly become an outcast for marginally more.

Fundamentally they need to become less Pac12. Get in earlier time zones and in front of Midwest fans that care more than their own populations. And lose Oregon St snd Washington St.

That’s not suggestive of expanding. That says they’re about to be poached

It will all come down to money in the next TV deal. If the Big 12 can stay around the $30 million per school, they are now getting then the league will be fine. But if its 15 to 20 million per school, then every school in the conference will be looking to move.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

This always looked more like a pissed off rooster to me honestly.

I always thought it would look more like the logo if they had their hand upside down.

 

[Hoggins]

It will all come down to money in the next TV deal. If the Big 12 can stay around the $30 million per school, they are now getting then the league will be fine. But if its 15 to 20 million per school, then every school in the conference will be looking to move.

We have at least some evidence that the Big 12 revenue will stay the same from industry sources.

https://sicem365.com/s/10447/the-new-big-12s-revenue-potential-six-additions-instead-of-four

CW reported the same general feeling of similar revenues last summer too. Those numbers are already ahead of the PAC 12, but suddenly the West coast conference that no one watches is getting a huge raise. Cause of reasons.

 

[WhoISthis]

It will all come down to money in the next TV deal. If the Big 12 can stay around the $30 million per school, they are now getting then the league will be fine. But if its 15 to 20 million per school, then every school in the conference will be looking to move.

They have to be able to move to a place that makes more. And not just marginally more. There’s risk in moving to a conference still second rate compared to P2 despite having their top brands.

Judging by ratings, it will be tough for the Pac12 to make notably more- and it’s likely that a Pac12 pod in the Big 12 makes more than a Big 12 pod in the Pac12. Even more likely are the networks chasing the Pac12-BIG matchup ratings

Conferences aren’t waiting on OUT. That has only cost them money and even worse ratings in the case of Pac12. We know ESPN and the ACC doesn’t benefit at all . I’d love to think 3-4 of us have P2 value, but that seems unlikely. Pac12 has a new deal in 2 years, so we’re running up against the 18 month notice requirement on notice if big 12 teams will be a part of that deal, and don’t want to increase exit fee

 

[JUKEBOX]

It's probably completely impractical and will never happen, but I always thought it might be fun if there was a Big 12 + Pac 12 merger (or alliance) and the championship was played in Vegas.

 

[WhoISthis]

We have at least some evidence that the Big 12 revenue will stay the same from industry sources.

https://sicem365.com/s/10447/the-new-big-12s-revenue-potential-six-additions-instead-of-four

CW reported the same general feeling of similar revenues last summer too. Those numbers are already ahead of the PAC 12, but suddenly the West coast conference that no one watches is getting a huge raise. Cause of reasons.

If the Pac12 is going to have a new contract significantly better, they are playing 5D chess.

They have a bad product with horrible ratings. Already masking lowest in P5. They “pass” on expanding when doing so would have been free and articles with their comments stating they need to expand.

Nothing points to it other than people seeing the Pac12 sucks in every regard , and just assuming the Big 12 is unstable and therefore willing to be a orphan in that broken home.

If Bowlsby has done his job, It’s time to poach. If they say no, tell them to give the Big 12 a call when they lose schools to the BIG

 

[JUKEBOX]

hypothetical mini-raid of the pac:

colorado
iowa state
kansas
kansas state

baylor
oklahoma state
tcu
texas tech

cinci
houston
ucf
wvu

arizona
arizona state
byu
utah

 

[CascadeClone]

It's probably completely impractical and will never happen, but I always thought it might be fun if there was a Big 12 + Pac 12 merger (or alliance) and the championship was played in Vegas.

I was going to post something like this.

Everyone is arguing "pac12 adds" or "big12 better". But the alliance has talked abt cross scheduling, and not poaching. So it might be easier and more on brand for pac to do that w big12 and have some kind of partnership.

There are so many possible outcomes of all this, and they are so radically different, i think its really impossible to predict. On top of that, i think NIL and "free agency" or player unionization or whatever that becomes is a much bigger tectonic shift and probably needs to get sorted out before or in combination w any realignment.
Alternate futures can be identified but predicting them is a mugs game.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

If the Pac12 is going to have a new contract significantly better, they are playing 5D chess.

They have a bad product with horrible ratings. Already masking lowest in P5. They “pass” on expanding when doing so would have been free and articles with their comments stating they need to expand.

Nothing points to it other than people seeing the Pac12 sucks in every regard , and just assuming the Big 12 is unstable and therefore willing to be a orphan in that broken home.

If Bowlsby has done his job, It’s time to poach. If they say no, tell them to give the Big 12 a call when they lose schools to the BIG

You keep forgetting one very important thing, according to the latest breakdown that I could find, 5 months ago, the Pac 12 media contract pays their league more than the Big 12's does. The reason each school in the Big 12 receives more is we only have 10 teams to their 12. But with the bringing in of the four new schools, we will be at 12 also.

The Pac 12 also hired a new Commish, no way he can be worse than Scott, who never got the Pac 12 on Direct TV. You also have to remember that the Pac 12 owns their entire network, unlike the other P5 leagues where ESPN or Fox owns a little less than half of each leagues network. There has to be value in the network itself.

No team is going to move until two things happen. 1 the Big 12 works out a new media contract and we know how long OU and UT are going to stay. 2. Until the Pac 12 and the Big 10 redo their media deals.

Here’s a look at all the current conference TV deals (on3.com)

 

[surly]

Although the B12 remains "fragile" to my eyes, I would not be surprised to see the B10 take UVA and perhaps UNC. On the other hand, travel would preclude them from taking Oregon and USC, as would California politics.

 

[cyfanatic]

Although the B12 remains "fragile" to my eyes, I would not be surprised to see the B10 take UVA and perhaps UNC. On the other hand, travel would preclude them from taking Oregon and USC, as would California politics.

USC is private...so if by politics you mean California state government...they wouldn't have anything to say about the schools you mentioned.

 

[surly]

USC is private...so if by politics you mean California state government...they wouldn't have anything to say about the schools you mentioned.

No, I meant USC's ties to the other California schools. If it was USC and UCLA, that might make more sense like Texas taking OU with them. But to simply walk from all those institutions - the Bruins, Stanford, Cal - I don't think so.

 

[cykadelic2]

The Pac 12 also hired a new Commish, no way he can be worse than Scott, who never got the Pac 12 on Direct TV. You also have to remember that the Pac 12 owns their entire network, unlike the other P5 leagues where ESPN or Fox owns a little less than half of each leagues network. There has to be value in the network itself.

No team is going to move until two things happen. 1 the Big 12 works out a new media contract and we know how long OU and UT are going to stay. 2. Until the Pac 12 and the Big 10 redo their media deals.

The PACN only has value if a new entrant like Apple buys it to get in to live sports production. Otherwise, it is a huge albatross for the P12 as it relates to football and it has been the primary reason why P12 per school payouts have not been as high as the B12's. Kliavkoff has made it clear the P12 cannot continue with PACN for its Tier 3 FB inventory. It will be sold, decommissioned or have FB content removed from it.

Regarding "No team is going to move until two things happen. 1 the Big 12 works out a new media contract and we know how long OU and UT are going to stay. 2. Until the Pac 12 and the Big 10 redo their media deals."; that is inaccurate.

#1 will be the B12 reaching a settlement agreement with OU/UT/SEC/ESPN/Fox on the timing of the OU and UT departures to the SEC, the one-time cash payment of exit fees to the R8 and if OU/UT depart before GOR expiration (they won't wait until 2025), how the GOR settlement will be managed. The GOR settlement can also be straight up cash or instead of cash, ESPN/Fox will fund placement of the R8 to the P12, B10 and/or ACC. Nothing else happens prior to this.

 

[cykadelic2]

ESPN will be the one brokering the ACC dissolution. Consolidation is good for ESPN. Move top brands to SEC, some to Big 12 at parity, dump three to AAC. There’s no value being in a conference with an expiration- it will end much sooner than you think. If UNC wants a say in the breakup, it’s leverage is gone by 2030.

You are so wrong on this and elsewhere re' the ACC.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Although the B12 remains "fragile" to my eyes, I would not be surprised to see the B10 take UVA and perhaps UNC. On the other hand, travel would preclude them from taking Oregon and USC, as would California politics.

UVA and UNC are locked into their ACC contract for another 15 years or more. One would have to believe that every conference has seen all these schools jump conferences over the past decade and written into the new media deals regulations that make it nearly impossible or very expensive for a school to leave and join a new conference. For those that say that a good lawyer can always find a loophole, then I would ask, "then why are OU and UT still in the conference?"

Both schools along with ESPN hoped that when the deal was announced, that the other 8 schools would panic and try to find another conference to jump too, and ESPN had already told the AAC to reach out to the schools, hope they would jump, thereby freeing OU and UT to join the SEC. Bowlsby finally got off his rear end and shot that letter off to ESPN telling him that their back-channel deals with UT, OU and the SEC broke the contract, and if those schools left, then ESPN would not be able to lower payments to the league for their media rights package, and that the schools would still have to pay a large lump sum payment for leaving the conference.

It's important to remember that when the remaining 8 schools were asked to again pledge the GOR rights to the league, that ISU and the 2 Kansas schools refused to do so at this time. If UT and OU cannot afford to buy their way out of the league, no way could ISU and the Kansas schools come up with that type of money.

OU and UT are going to leave the league, when that happens, no one knows, but until that is cleared up, and the Big 12 knows how much money each school is going to make from their TV rights, then no expansion is going to happen in any league. You also have to remember that with the conference growing from 10 to 12 teams, the numbers will have to go up overall for the league to be able to match what it currently is paying out to each school. Granted there will be a delayed time until the four new schools get a full share, but 5 to 8 years down the road they will.

 

[CascadeClone]

Although the B12 remains "fragile" to my eyes, I would not be surprised to see the B10 take UVA and perhaps UNC. On the other hand, travel would preclude them from taking Oregon and USC, as would California politics.

Tend to agree. However, UVa and Pitt. Both AAU. Closer geography and travel. Those two easier to pry away than UNC since semi tied to Duke and NCSt.

Not saying it will happen but its certainly feasible, and in ways easier than PST teams.

 

[Cyforce]

hypothetical mini-raid of the pac:

colorado
iowa state
kansas
kansas state

baylor
oklahoma state
texas tech
tcu

cinci
houston
ucf
wvu

arizona
arizona state
byu
utah

Pods suck

 

[Hoggins]

Pods suck

A division of 8 teams where you never play the teams in the other division sucks