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Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

Hoggins said:
New TV contract will be negotiated in the next 1-2 years so yea, new GOR will come with that.

And if you’re banking on expansion from the PAC 12, ACC, or Big 10; you’re gonna be disappointed. New Big 12 is our home
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The OU/UT/SEC/ESPN/Fox settlement will proceed any new B12 TV deal. There is no flippin way OU and UT stay in the B12 until B12 GOR expiration.

Any additional realignment will occur after that settlement. For sure, the P12 will attempt to expand based on comments from the new P12 commish earlier this week. They cannot afford to stand pat. The ACC will also look to expand in some fashion so that they can somehow re-do their terrible deal with ESPN. And the B10 will likely resume exploration of expansion after the B12 Settlement Agreement. At least one of those conferences will expand in some fashion after the Settlement Agreement. The odds of ISU remaining in the B12 are less than 50%.
 
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cykadelic2 said:
The OU/UT/SEC/ESPN/Fox settlement will proceed any new B12 TV deal. There is no flippin way OU and UT stay in the B12 until B12 GOR expiration.

Any additional realignment will occur after that settlement. For sure, the P12 will attempt to expand based on comments from the new P12 commish earlier this week. They cannot afford to stand pat. The ACC will also look to expand in some fashion so that they can somehow re-do their terrible deal with ESPN. And the B10 will likely resume exploration of expansion after the B12 Settlement Agreement. At least one of those conferences will expand in some fashion after the Settlement Agreement. The odds of ISU remaining in the B12 are less than 50%.
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You are setting yourself up for a massive disappointment.
 
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cykadelic2 said:
The OU/UT/SEC/ESPN/Fox settlement will proceed any new B12 TV deal. There is no flippin way OU and UT stay in the B12 until B12 GOR expiration.

Any additional realignment will occur after that settlement. For sure, the P12 will attempt to expand based on comments from the new P12 commish earlier this week. They cannot afford to stand pat. The ACC will also look to expand in some fashion so that they can somehow re-do their terrible deal with ESPN. And the B10 will likely resume exploration of expansion after the B12 Settlement Agreement. At least one of those conferences will expand in some fashion after the Settlement Agreement. The odds of ISU remaining in the B12 are less than 50%.
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PAC 12 is screwed. They may try to poach some Big 12 schools, but why would you go there for less money? The new PAC 12 deal is going to be less than the current one. ACC is screwed in the length of their GOR...no way they get to redo that. In fact, the only thing that could happen is that the BIG or SEC poaches teams from the ACC, which would cause ESPN to do a new ACC contract at a much lower rate. The new Big 12 is solidly the #3 conference and their new contract will be less than the BIG/SEC, but more than the ACC/PAC.
 
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surly said:
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“C” is for cervix? Promoting women's health?
 
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cykadelic2 said:
The OU/UT/SEC/ESPN/Fox settlement will proceed any new B12 TV deal. There is no flippin way OU and UT stay in the B12 until B12 GOR expiration.

Any additional realignment will occur after that settlement. For sure, the P12 will attempt to expand based on comments from the new P12 commish earlier this week. They cannot afford to stand pat. The ACC will also look to expand in some fashion so that they can somehow re-do their terrible deal with ESPN. And the B10 will likely resume exploration of expansion after the B12 Settlement Agreement. At least one of those conferences will expand in some fashion after the Settlement Agreement. The odds of ISU remaining in the B12 are less than 50%.
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This is not going to happen. We will be in the B12 for a long time.
 
cykadelic2 said:
The OU/UT/SEC/ESPN/Fox settlement will proceed any new B12 TV deal. There is no flippin way OU and UT stay in the B12 until B12 GOR expiration.

Any additional realignment will occur after that settlement. For sure, the P12 will attempt to expand based on comments from the new P12 commish earlier this week. They cannot afford to stand pat. The ACC will also look to expand in some fashion so that they can somehow re-do their terrible deal with ESPN. And the B10 will likely resume exploration of expansion after the B12 Settlement Agreement. At least one of those conferences will expand in some fashion after the Settlement Agreement. The odds of ISU remaining in the B12 are less than 50%.
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UT/OU can absolutely be held to stay until 2024. They can leave, but the Big 12 will retain those media rights come hell or high water. The Big 12 has zero incentive to let them go.

Those comments from the PAC 12 commissioner are about limiting PAC 12 after dark. PAC 12 could’ve added 4 teams this past summer and had the Big 12 potentially disband. Why poach the Big 12 now after it’s significantly strengthened itself?

ACC can add, but ESPN has to agree to pay for them. ESPN has the ACC on discount for the next decade. Why exactly would ESPN get rid of their discount?

And the Big 10 is only adding subscriptions. Good luck with that.
 
cykadelic2 said:
The OU/UT/SEC/ESPN/Fox settlement will proceed any new B12 TV deal. There is no flippin way OU and UT stay in the B12 until B12 GOR expiration.

Any additional realignment will occur after that settlement. For sure, the P12 will attempt to expand based on comments from the new P12 commish earlier this week. They cannot afford to stand pat. The ACC will also look to expand in some fashion so that they can somehow re-do their terrible deal with ESPN. And the B10 will likely resume exploration of expansion after the B12 Settlement Agreement. At least one of those conferences will expand in some fashion after the Settlement Agreement. The odds of ISU remaining in the B12 are less than 50%.
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No.
 
knowlesjam said:
The new Big 12 is solidly the #3 conference and their new contract will be less than the BIG/SEC, but more than the ACC/PAC.
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Due to USC, the new P12 deal with their existing 12 schools will be higher than the new B12 deal with their currently projected 12 schools. With expansion into the Central Time zone and the addition of weekly 11 AM CT games, their per school payouts can go higher which is why they likely expand especially if a new entrant like Amazon gets engaged in the bidding.
 
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Hoggins said:
UT/OU can absolutely be held to stay until 2024. They can leave, but the Big 12 will retain those media rights come hell or high water. The Big 12 has zero incentive to let them go.

Those comments from the PAC 12 commissioner are about limiting PAC 12 after dark. PAC 12 could’ve added 4 teams this past summer and had the Big 12 potentially disband. Why poach the Big 12 now after it’s significantly strengthened itself?

And the Big 10 is only adding subscriptions. Good luck with that.
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Sure OU/UT can be held to stay but if the price is right as part of a settlement agreement, they will be released from the GOR in the form of straight up cash or ESPN/Fox/SEC funding the placement of the Remaining 8 in the B10, ACC and/or the P12. As mentioned before, there is no way OU and UT stay through GOR expiration, they will settle in advance and ESPN will help pay in some fashion.

Those comments from the P12 Commish strongly suggested moving games from After Dark to the 11 AM CT window. They cannot accomplish that movement with solely non con games with the B10 and ACC via the "Alliance" and enhance their own media package. Bowlsby has publicly stated that and I agree. In order to get weekly 11 AM CT games in their own package, they have to expand with schools in the Central Time zone.

And it would have been financially inept on the B12's part to dissolve before a GOR and Exit Fee Settlement was reached with OU/UT/SEC/ESPN. OU and UT were hoping for dissolution to skirt the Settlement but obviously that didn't happen. Just because B12 dissolution hasn't already occurred doesn't mean it still can't happen. There is nothing binding on the R8's end to that would still preclude dissolution.

The B10 doesn't have to expand with ISU/KU but their are multiple benefits in do so (e.g. solving their FB scheduling issues by going to 4 pods). And any potential payout decreases for existing schools are mitigated by ESPN/Fox essentially moving payouts for ISU/KU from their existing B12 deals to the B10, by stimulation of BTN streaming subs and by a new entrant such as Amazon desiring additional inventory from ISU/KU.
 
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cykadelic2 said:
Due to USC, the new P12 deal with their existing 12 schools will be higher than the new B12 deal with their currently projected 12 schools. With expansion into the Central Time zone and the addition of weekly 11 AM CT games, their per school payouts can go higher which is why they likely expand especially if a new entrant like Amazon gets engaged in the bidding.
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Have you seen the conference ratings? The Pac12 may have historical brands but they don’t have much better value. ACC conference title game beat by AAC in ratings.

If any of the remaining Big 12 members had enough value to get the ACC or Pac12 anywhere near close to the Big or SEC, they’ll be invited to the Big or SEC.

Why would a Big 12 team leave to be a satellite orphan of either conference without getting BIG or SEC money in return? The Pac12 and ACC are clearly are in a very similar position as New Big 12, and that’s with their top brands. Adding 4 was in part about getting those conferences backfill candidates, thus securing the floor outcome of the Big 12 to be the “3” in P3. You don’t leave for anything less than BIG or SEC.

Plus, ESPN controls the ACC and SEC. If they benefited from KU or any other Big 12 brands ending up in the ACC, it should have been done soon after OuT announced. Two more losses and there’s likely no exit fee or settlement to make. Imo espn doesn’t want the ACC to survive, or rather knows it can’t.

Do we prefer adding a Big 12 West or Big 12 East?
 
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Hoggins said:
Agreed, but the other power 5 conferences just passed on expansion so I would except everyone to sign a new GOR in the next 1-2 years
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I doubt if any of the 8 remaining teams are going to jump at the chance to sign away their GOR rights, until there is no probability, that any of the other 4 power conferences are not going to expand. Just because the Pac 12, ACC and Big 10 said that they were not expanding now, does not mean that they cannot change their mind in the next few years before this all gets worked out.
 
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It will be interesting to see if the Pac12 makes a run at Houston. Pretty low penalty if they back out now? Imo they already did or thought about it (recall article stating TCU and Houston top targets).

SMU is basically TCU without the Big 12 equity put in, but the Pac12 will struggle to get anyone else Imo.
 
cykadelic2 said:
Due to USC, the new P12 deal with their existing 12 schools will be higher than the new B12 deal with their currently projected 12 schools. With expansion into the Central Time zone and the addition of weekly 11 AM CT games, their per school payouts can go higher which is why they likely expand especially if a new entrant like Amazon gets engaged in the bidding.
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So Lincoln Riley goes to USC and all of a sudden people will give a **** about the PAC12? lol
 
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cykadelic2 said:
Due to USC, the new P12 deal with their existing 12 schools will be higher than the new B12 deal with their currently projected 12 schools. With expansion into the Central Time zone and the addition of weekly 11 AM CT games, their per school payouts can go higher which is why they likely expand especially if a new entrant like Amazon gets engaged in the bidding.
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Not sure I understand "Due to USC" statement.

USC was in the Pac12 when the current Pac12 agreement was signed. AND when that deal was signed the Pete Carroll glory days were still in the rear view mirror.

Sure there is optimism with bringing in Lincoln Riley, but a TV partner isn't going to pay a Lincoln Riley premium. If Riley has 3-4 good years he could move on for a bigger paycheck- NFL or SEC/Big10.

In fact, if you were correct that USC has exceptional value- why not jump to Big 10 or SEC? IMO a 4 team Pac12 package would be attractive to the SEC or Big10.
 
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