John Deere strike imminent?

[Clonehomer]

That's for JD to assess and figure out. Labor negotiations are a snapshot in time, and that snapshot is right now. Sure, it's not a one-year deal, but it's not a twenty-year deal either. It's on JD to perform their own forecasting and know what they can sustainably work with.

Also, if we're being real, I don't exactly see JD collapsing any time soon.

Maybe they have figured it out and that's all they want to give to protect themselves int he next downturn? And it's a 6 year snapshot. And even beyond that, this contract has significant bearing on the next contract. So even calling it only 6 years doesn't really capture what's happening. Look no further than the referenced 1997 contract. That is still having rippling effects on these negotiations.

But like it or not, JD is beholden to the shareholders. So that profit that everyone is speaking of goes to those owners of the company. If they have to pay the labor more, then profits go down and it becomes tougher to raise capital for projects.

 

[MeowingCows]

Maybe they have figured it out and that's all they want to give to protect themselves int he next downturn? And it's a 6 year snapshot. And even beyond that, this contract has significant bearing on the next contract. So even calling it only 6 years doesn't really capture what's happening. Look no further than the referenced 1997 contract. That is still having rippling effects on these negotiations.

But like it or not, JD is beholden to the shareholders. So that profit that everyone is speaking of goes to those owners of the company. If they have to pay the labor more, then profits go down and it becomes tougher to raise capital for projects.

Which is exactly why the union would be smart to cash in on their leverage now. They aren't going to have this level of power again in 6 years, it took a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic to reach it.

There's ways to generate profit -- cutting costs other places. Now that may come to haunt some of the union and other JD employees later, but...that's the risk they're taking.

 

[Sousaclone]

Agreed. And the more it drags on, the more some workers may entertain the thought of crossing the line and then it will just snow ball to where the union will have to agree on terms.

Yeah. Striking going into winter and the holidays probably isn't the best choice. Lot fewer summer side jobs available that could be picked up and all the holiday expenses. Now if you were a major retailer or shipping company a holiday strike might have more leverage.

The real question is if JD plays the long game and the union is the one that comes back to the table, does JD unsweeten the pot or ask for new concessions? Definitely a serious poker game.

 

[7Got6]

That's a little disingenuous isn't it? This isn't a one year deal. JD's profits indicate they can give more right now. There is nothing to say they can give more in 2022 or beyond. Locking in for a multi-year contract based on one of their most profitable years is irresponsible. So, if the deal were to be about getting much more this year and either determining what it will be next year when the time comes, sure. But for all we know, JD could fall on hard times in 2022. The world's messed up right now, stranger things have happened.

Highly cyclical, usually 7 year cycle, business. Most people don’t understand that. The other obvious (or what should be obvious) point is Deere has a responsibility to shareholders to be highly profitable. It’s not a private or nonprofit venture.

 

[7Got6]

Which is exactly why the union would be smart to cash in on their leverage now. They aren't going to have this level of power again in 6 years, it took a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic to reach it.

There's ways to generate profit -- cutting costs other places. Now that may come to haunt some of the union and other JD employees later, but...that's the risk they're taking.

So they just laid off ~5% of salary workers last September for the first time in decades. Probably not sitting well that the Union is turning down a 10% raise for doing the same work.

 

[MeowingCows]

So they just laid off ~5% of salary workers last September for the first time in decades. Probably not sitting well that the Union is turning down a 10% raise for doing the same work.

Too bad for the salary workers. They play by a different set of rules, and that's their choice.

 

[Pope]

Salary employees will now be required to work long hours daily 6 days/week, and the normal shut down period will be scratched. Some will make a crap load of overtime, but they won't be enjoying it.

 

[CyJack13]

So they just laid off ~5% of salary workers last September for the first time in decades. Probably not sitting well that the Union is turning down a 10% raise for doing the same work.

Deere has done a phenomenal job of pissing off pretty much everyone except upper management the last two years.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Highly cyclical, usually 7 year cycle, business. Most people don’t understand that. The other obvious (or what should be obvious) point is Deere has a responsibility to shareholders to be highly profitable. It’s not a private or nonprofit venture.

JD also has a responsibility to their work force that allowed them to be highly profitable. But that is a fact that many have ignored over the last 40 years of Trickle Down economics.

This country started to go down hill when the stockholders and their profits became more important than the workers that actually produced the goods that those same stockholders became wealthy off of. No one is saying that the shareholders should not see a decent return on their investment, but when that return becomes more important than the workers, and the town that they live in, then its time to rethink the agreement between the two parties.

 

[7Got6]

JD also has a responsibility to their work force that allowed them to be highly profitable. But that is a fact that many have ignored over the last 40 years of Trickle Down economics.

This country started to go down hill when the stockholders and their profits became more important than the workers that actually produced the goods that those same stockholders became wealthy off of. No one is saying that the shareholders should not see a decent return on their investment, but when that return becomes more important than the workers, and the town that they live in, then its time to rethink the agreement between the two parties.

So under a new agreement I assume you would be OK with those workers having to give back money when the cycle isn’t as favorable, correct?

Look I understand why they turned down the first offer. But the latest offer from Deere seemed more than reasonable. Do you think any of these workers would make 60K a year with full benefits should Deere relocate? Even 45K a year starting out with full insurance benefits for having a high school diploma seems reasonable. These aren’t tradesmen even. Most walk in without any skill and learn it on the job.

 

[BryceC]

To me, there are factors working in the favor of the company, and factors working in the favor of the workers.

Company:
1. They simply don't have the parts and materials to run the lines at full capacity right now, and they didn't before the strike. They may want to just bide their time, let some inventories build up, and bring back people when they can actually run the lines at full strength.
2. From everything I've heard, the salaried employees have been more productive than you'd think.
3. It was an extremely close vote considering several locations voted yes, and it's a big change going from 90% No to 55% No.
4. It's just getting colder out there.

Workers:
1. It truly is a bumper crop kind of year for Deere and it's a great time to demand more.
2. You can't keep riding your salaried employees.
3. Definitely one of the real points in history where there is a massive shortage of employees. Everybody is hiring.
4. Stock price drop of 5% is pretty significant for 1 day. What happens in the coming weeks will really put some pressure on. If it stays between a 5%-10% drop, I don't think people will be in a big hurry to make another offer. If it goes up to a 25% drop or something crazy, they'll be dying to put money into their hands.

 

[Clonehomer]

To me, there are factors working in the favor of the company, and factors working in the favor of the workers.

Company:
1. They simply don't have the parts and materials to run the lines at full capacity right now, and they didn't before the strike. They may want to just bide their time, let some inventories build up, and bring back people when they can actually run the lines at full strength.
2. From everything I've heard, the salaried employees have been more productive than you'd think.
3. It was an extremely close vote considering several locations voted yes, and it's a big change going from 90% No to 55% No.
4. It's just getting colder out there.

Workers:
1. It truly is a bumper crop kind of year for Deere and it's a great time to demand more.
2. You can't keep riding your salaried employees.
3. Definitely one of the real points in history where there is a massive shortage of employees. Everybody is hiring.
4. Stock price drop of 5% is pretty significant for 1 day. What happens in the coming weeks will really put some pressure on. If it stays between a 5%-10% drop, I don't think people will be in a big hurry to make another offer. If it goes up to a 25% drop or something crazy, they'll be dying to put money into their hands.

This is a point that I don't think the average union worker gave enough credit. Not only does this give the company time to wait this out, but it also provides a benchmark to point to for how efficient the factory should be. If they are anywhere near as efficient with significantly less workers, then why wouldn't the company expect similar numbers once the strike is over?

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Some chatter out there that the union is going to go to court to see if they can have it deemed a lockout now that Deere has said they aren't negotiating anymore.

If it's deemed a lockout, union members become eligible for unemployment and this thing drags on for a long time and gives the union every ounce of the leverage.

I'm obviously not a labor lawyer but that's pretty interesting.

 

[Clonehomer]

Some chatter out there that the union is going to go to court to see if they can have it deemed a lockout now that Deere has said they aren't negotiating anymore.

If it's deemed a lockout, union members become eligible for unemployment and this thing drags on for a long time and gives the union every ounce of the leverage.

I'm obviously not a labor lawyer but that's pretty interesting.

If the latest offer is still available to ratify, then how would it be a lockout? Not negotiating further isn't the same as pulling all offers and I haven't seen any reports that JD has done that. Quite frankly, they'd be smart to just let this one sit and have the union keep voting on it until it passes. Eventually it will.

 

[Pat]

To me, there are factors working in the favor of the company, and factors working in the favor of the workers.

Company:
1. They simply don't have the parts and materials to run the lines at full capacity right now, and they didn't before the strike. They may want to just bide their time, let some inventories build up, and bring back people when they can actually run the lines at full strength.
2. From everything I've heard, the salaried employees have been more productive than you'd think.
3. It was an extremely close vote considering several locations voted yes, and it's a big change going from 90% No to 55% No.
4. It's just getting colder out there.

Workers:
1. It truly is a bumper crop kind of year for Deere and it's a great time to demand more.
2. You can't keep riding your salaried employees.
3. Definitely one of the real points in history where there is a massive shortage of employees. Everybody is hiring.
4. Stock price drop of 5% is pretty significant for 1 day. What happens in the coming weeks will really put some pressure on. If it stays between a 5%-10% drop, I don't think people will be in a big hurry to make another offer. If it goes up to a 25% drop or something crazy, they'll be dying to put money into their hands.

That seems about right. I asked earlier but never got an answer: is the pension good enough that workers are unlikely to go elsewhere, or is there a risk that a large number move on to take advantage of the current market?

 

[Cyismymonkey]

This is a point that I don't think the average union worker gave enough credit. Not only does this give the company time to wait this out, but it also provides a benchmark to point to for how efficient the factory should be. If they are anywhere near as efficient with significantly less workers, then why wouldn't the company expect similar numbers once the strike is over?

Which probably only means salaried workers haven’t yet completely ****** up production. Give em time.

 

[BryceC]

That seems about right. I asked earlier but never got an answer: is the pension good enough that workers are unlikely to go elsewhere, or is there a risk that a large number move on to take advantage of the current market?

Honestly I don’t know the answer to that, one of the factory guys would have to answer. It’s a pension you aren’t getting anywhere else though.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

So under a new agreement I assume you would be OK with those workers having to give back money when the cycle isn’t as favorable, correct?

Look I understand why they turned down the first offer. But the latest offer from Deere seemed more than reasonable. Do you think any of these workers would make 60K a year with full benefits should Deere relocate? Even 45K a year starting out with full insurance benefits for having a high school diploma seems reasonable. These aren’t tradesmen even. Most walk in without any skill and learn it on the job.

Sure when the stockholders sign up for the same deal, and agree to return their dividends to ensure the corporation is still profitable.

We have spent 40 years enriching those at the top of the money train, while ignoring the working class. We have spent decades in stagnate wages, while the investor class has seen their stock value continue to increase. We pass laws to make sure that their investment income is taxed less than the workers wages.

So when. if ever does it end? When we reach the point where only those at the top have money while the rest of us continue to ask "may I have more, PLEASE"?

 

[BCClone]

Yeah. Striking going into winter and the holidays probably isn't the best choice. Lot fewer summer side jobs available that could be picked up and all the holiday expenses. Now if you were a major retailer or shipping company a holiday strike might have more leverage.

The real question is if JD plays the long game and the union is the one that comes back to the table, does JD unsweeten the pot or ask for new concessions? Definitely a serious poker game.

UPS and delivery companies are begging for seasonal help. Even big box stores need help. Not great paying, but still some inflow.

 

[BCClone]

Sure when the stockholders sign up for the same deal, and agree to return their dividends to ensure the corporation is still profitable.

We have spent 40 years enriching those at the top of the money train, while ignoring the working class. We have spent decades in stagnate wages, while the investor class has seen their stock value continue to increase. We pass laws to make sure that their investment income is taxed less than the workers wages.

So when. if ever does it end? When we reach the point where only those at the top have money while the rest of us continue to ask "may I have more, PLEASE"?

Actually Deere has cut their dividends hard over the last 5-6 years. Was just at 3% back in 2015 and now is just in the low to mid 1%s last I saw. So the stockholders have been giving back money they were getting.