After much thought, my best-case, realistic realignment scenario.

[exCyDing]

Best Case: Big 10
Worst Case: Revamped Big XII

Best case is pretty easy to see. ACC would be better than the PAC, PAC would be better than a revamped Big XII, which would pretty much be the floor.

I don't see Big XII members going to the AAC if there's any more than four left without a conference. I could see max two AAC members being added if the remaining 8 stick together, given that former Big XII investigations into expansion showed nobody put the conference on better financial footing. Adding more than two just continues to dilute the value. If this is the eventual outcome, the conference will perpetually be a target of further expansion talks as the Big 10, ACC and PAC hurtle towards further consolidation.

 

[CyLyte2]

I saw another board where someone suggested BYU and the 3 service academies(I think Houston is one of the best tv ratings additions). Interesting, they have some national following and the Army vs Navy game is huge ratings but it doesn't do much for basketball. I don't know if that would be football only. Would the league do a few basketball only schools like Creighton and Wichita St? Maybe even New Mexico or New Mexico St. for bball only they draw huge basketball crowds. Those types of basketball additions with BYU and Houston would make basketball a fun product in the league, especially if KU and WVU stay but the travel won't make a lot of sense for WVU.

The service academies is not the first option for anyone but its always there.

I thought about that too. Army-Navy is HUGE. And all three would be good attendance draws. Air Force actually has a fair amount of value in the athletics and a good regional partner for BYU. Basketball is fairly meaningless and will work itself out.

 

[TXCyclones]

Why does the PAC religious affiliated schools?

Huh?

 

[trett10s]

The remaining 8 members of the Big 12 should stay as a league, collect the balance of TV revenue due them over the next 4 years and take their time in figuring out their next moves. Don't throw a guaranteed contract + $150 million from OK & TX away. ESPN, TX and OK are banking on the remaining schools joining other conferences to allow them out of the contract and the fees. If we add any team, add Cincy. 9 teams, 8 league games + 4 other games. Each year the league champion will get in the playoffs. Prove our worth standing alone.

 

[jackrabbit]

Why does the PAC religious affiliated schools?

From what I have seen, it is nothing official. But the PAC-12 has had decades to invite BYU and they have not. I think Baylor is to close to being like BYU and the PAC-12 would not even consider them. TCU is closer to being like USC and Stanford but still more religious than those two. I doubt that the current PAC-12 would invite TCU. So that is your first whammy (game show reference). Plus you get into the state of CA travel ban. Texas is on the states that CA state employees can not travel too. So a second whammy.

 

[MeanDean]

5 pods? How does that work for a conference champion playoff????

 

[Win5002]

I thought about that too. Army-Navy is HUGE. And all three would be good attendance draws. Air Force actually has a fair amount of value in the athletics and a good regional partner for BYU. Basketball is fairly meaningless and will work itself out.

Basketball revenue is not near as large but it doesn't take as much revenue to compete. The Big East has done well in terms of monetizing their product, and there is always talk about requiring the NCAA to fund their operations through means other than taking money from the NCAA basketball tourney which would help monetize basketball. So I don't think the league should discount that, especially if Kansas doesn't find a home in the B1G. A league that has KU, Baylor, ISU, BYU and one of the Arizona schools has a lot of basketball content. Then if we threw in any of those basketball only schools Creighton, NM or NM St., WSU its pretty good. Especially if Cincy, was added as a bridge to WVU.

I still hope ISU could be one of the last B1G additions added because they are in the footprint & AAU if the B1G goes to 24 but I don't hold out a lot of hope. It might help if the SEC gets NC & Virginia instead of the B1G that might make a spot or two open in the B1G.

 

[SolarGarlic]

I'm hoping for chaos at this point that gets us to 48 teams. Then hope we win the natty and force our way into that 48. I don't see why not.

 

[CyLyte2]

When you start adding "basketball only" members from anywhere let alone the WAC you're just screaming desperation. And Creighton isn't leaving the Big East for a reconstituted Big 12.

 

[heitclone]

The Pac is not going to take religious-affiliate schools. TCU, Baylor, and BYU are not going to be part of the PAC. Their only real hope is going to be ACC who have coveted Notre Dame.

So for argument's sake I could see something more like these 15:

Oregon, Oregon St, Wash, Wash St, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, CU, Utah, Kansas St, Okie St, Texas Tech, Arizona, ASU


***ISU and KU to the B1G***

I don't think the current pac 12 would touch those teams but if the b1g raids the CA teams, all bets are off.

 

[CyLyte2]

The two most appealing teams left for the BIG or Pac are Iowa State and Kansas.

 

[CyclonesMoney]

Huh?

My bad I was trying to get into a meeting. I meant to say, why doesn’t the PAC 12 not like religious affiliated schools”.

 

[Cyclones1969]

Basketball revenue is not near as large but it doesn't take as much revenue to compete. The Big East has done well in terms of monetizing their product, and there is always talk about requiring the NCAA to fund their operations through means other than taking money from the NCAA basketball tourney which would help monetize basketball. So I don't think the league should discount that, especially if Kansas doesn't find a home in the B1G. A league that has KU, Baylor, ISU, BYU and one of the Arizona schools has a lot of basketball content. Then if we threw in any of those basketball only schools Creighton, NM or NM St., WSU its pretty good. Especially if Cincy, was added as a bridge to WVU.

I still hope ISU could be one of the last B1G additions added because they are in the footprint & AAU if the B1G goes to 24 but I don't hold out a lot of hope. It might help if the SEC gets NC & Virginia instead of the B1G that might make a spot or two open in the B1G.

Do you seriously think that espn did all of this to lose acc teams?

i think you need to worry more about the big boy football league taking the power teams from the big 10 more than being able to get two espn schools to fox.

 

[NetflixAndClone]

The Pac is not going to take religious-affiliate schools. TCU, Baylor, and BYU are not going to be part of the PAC. Their only real hope is going to be ACC who have coveted Notre Dame.

So for argument's sake I could see something more like these 15:

Oregon, Oregon St, Wash, Wash St, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, CU, Utah, Kansas St, Okie St, Texas Tech, Arizona, ASU


***ISU and KU to the B1G***

TCU really isn't religious anymore it use to be, but it is pretty much secular now. It wasn't too long ago that they switch from Texas Christian to pretty much full time "TCU".

 

[Clonehomer]

Best case: Big10 takes ISU and KU
2nd Best: PAC takes ISU and a combination of Big12 teams
3rd Best: Big10 takes top PAC schools and the Big12 takes 4-6 of the best remaining PAC schools
4th Best: All other conferences stay put. Big12 adds BYU, Houston, UCF, and whoever.
Armageddon: Big10 takes KU and Mizzou, SEC takes OSU, PAC takes TTU and TCU. ACC takes WVU and ND. AAC takes ISU, KSU, TCU, and Baylor.

I don't think the Armageddon has much chance of happening, but as bad as that is even a slight chance is too much for me.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Best Case: Big 10
Worst Case: Revamped Big XII

Best case is pretty easy to see. ACC would be better than the PAC, PAC would be better than a revamped Big XII, which would pretty much be the floor.

I don't see Big XII members going to the AAC if there's any more than four left without a conference. I could see max two AAC members being added if the remaining 8 stick together, given that former Big XII investigations into expansion showed nobody put the conference on better financial footing. Adding more than two just continues to dilute the value. If this is the eventual outcome, the conference will perpetually be a target of further expansion talks as the Big 10, ACC and PAC hurtle towards further consolidation.

The worst case is WVU and KU go to the ACC and the Pac takes Tech/TCU/Baylor/OSU. If you don’t think this is possible just go to one of their boards for a non-Cyclone perspective; many of them are holding out hope for it and discussing the Texas schools trying to link arms with OSU for the Pac. And KU hoops in the ACC is certainly something I could see ESPN negotiate if it brought about the heat death of the Big 12.

This would put us in the American with K-State and our next closest conference mates would be Tulsa and Cincinnati. The American’s profile would barely move with adding only two schools in ISU and KSU; our media revenue would be around $7M a year, a $30M decrease.

That’s the worst case scenario as I see it

 

[TXCyclones]

TCU really isn't religious anymore it use to be, but it is pretty much secular now. It wasn't too long ago that they switch from Texas Christian to pretty much full time "TCU".

They still require each student to take religious studies classes. ***still religious***

 

[Cyclonepride]

I'm hoping for chaos at this point that gets us to 48 teams. Then hope we win the natty and force our way into that 48. I don't see why not.

I'm trying to imagine the immensity of the mess that would cause with all the contracts involved. Not only would you have the difficulty and expense of extracting all those teams from their obligations, but then you'd have to hope that you could negotiate a completely new contract for the conference (presumably the SEC) that covered all your expenditures and provided the compensation levels that would make all the new members happy. And if you're ESPN, you probably killed the value of many of the contracts you are obligated for.

 

[TXCyclones]

The worst case is WVU and KU go to the ACC and the Pac takes Tech/TCU/Baylor/OSU. If you don’t think this is possible just go to one of their boards for a non-Cyclone perspective; many of them are holding out hope for it and discussing the Texas schools trying to link arms with OSU for the Pac. And KU hoops in the ACC is certainly something I could see ESPN negotiate if it brought about the heat death of the Big 12.

This would put us in the American with K-State and our next closest conference mates would be Tulsa and Cincinnati. The American’s profile would barely move with adding only two schools in ISU and KSU; our media revenue would be around $7M a year, a $30M decrease.

That’s the worst case scenario as I see it

Pretty optimistic that anyone would think KU/WVU are more desirable than Iowa State. Our numbers and academics put us in a far more desirable overall spot.

 

[ForeverIowan]

Pretty simple IMO:

Best Case: Big Ten.

2nd Option: Pac 12 as it currently stands sticks together and looks to add four others to get to 16.

Worst Case: B1G poaches the top six Pac 12 schools (Wash, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA) The rest of Pac 12 and Big 12 merge and pick up BYU/Boise State/Houston.

*KU might jump for a better situation for bball and WVU makes no sense geographically.

That is so simple minded however. So much more still to play out.