After much thought, my best-case, realistic realignment scenario.

[jakemcilroy]

PAC-12 goes with safety in #'s and adds remaining Big members (minus West Va) + BYU to form the PAC-20

They do 5, 4-team PODS that look something like this:
Oregon, Oregon St, Wash, Wash St
USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford
CU, BYU, Utah, & Kansas
Texas Tech, TCU, Arizona, ASU
Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas St, Okie St

You'd have to get a FOX Sports TV deal and all sign an astronomically long (20+ years) and penalty filled Grant of Rights to build trust and stability.

Then, your FB schedule looks something like: Play everyone in your pod (3 games) Play 2 other pods (8 games) every other year Play 1 FCS game. Iowa games goes away. It sucks but we need long-term stability more than that game. The scheduling is workable. Maybe you play 1.5 pods every year so you play 9 conferences games. Whatever.

11 conference games is a lot but it makes scheduling easier and creates unity and a unique brand. "We're going to play each other." Embrace PAC-20 after dark and get auto bid plus 1 at-large every year into 12 team playoff. Avoid irrelevancy.

Championship game in Vegas.

Discuss....

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

It's going to come down the the power players. Presidents, media companies, politicians, possibly the SOTUS. Whatever the big dogs decide it will sends waves. At this point speculation is a practice in insanity.

 

[dabears32]

It's going to come down the the power players. Presidents, media companies, politicians, possibly the SOTUS. Whatever the big dogs decide it will sends waves. At this point speculation is a practice in insanity.

This. We literally have no idea. We could be totally fine or we could be totally effed. Nobody knows.

The only thing we know is we arent going to the MVC like one troll suggested...

 

[TXCyclones]

PAC-12 goes with safety in #'s and adds remaining Big members (minus West Va) + BYU to form the PAC-20

They do 5, 4-team PODS that look something like this:
Oregon, Oregon St, Wash, Wash St
USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford
CU, BYU, Utah, & Kansas
Texas Tech, TCU, Arizona, ASU
Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas St, Okie St

You'd have to get a FOX Sports TV deal and all sign an astronomically long (20+ years) and penalty filled Grant of Rights to build trust and stability.

Then, your FB schedule looks something like: Play everyone in your pod (3 games) Play 2 other pods (8 games) every other year Play 1 FCS game. Iowa games goes away. It sucks but we need long-term stability more than that game. The scheduling is workable. Maybe you play 1.5 pods every year so you play 9 conferences games. Whatever.

11 conference games is a lot but it makes scheduling easier and creates unity and a unique brand. "We're going to play each other." Embrace PAC-20 after dark and get auto bid plus 1 at-large every year into 12 team playoff. Avoid irrelevancy.

Championship game in Vegas.

Discuss....

The Pac is not going to take religious-affiliate schools. TCU, Baylor, and BYU are not going to be part of the PAC. Their only real hope is going to be ACC who have coveted Notre Dame.

So for argument's sake I could see something more like these 15:

Oregon, Oregon St, Wash, Wash St, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, CU, Utah, Kansas St, Okie St, Texas Tech, Arizona, ASU


***ISU and KU to the B1G***

 

[jakemcilroy]

All strong points above.

 

[jakemcilroy]

It's going to come down the the power players. Presidents, media companies, politicians, possibly the SOTUS. Whatever the big dogs decide it will sends waves. At this point speculation is a practice in insanity.

While true, aren't message boards built for speculation and insanity?

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Glad to have another thread on this.

 

[Win5002]

Its a better chance USC plus 3 or 5 others go join the B1G. Then the Big 12 can add 2-4 of Az/ASU/Utah/Colorado because they are left behind also.

I think BYU & Houston might be as good of tv adds as any of the above 4 and would like to see those also. I'm guess WVU tries to leave but I don't know if they can. I'm sure they would like Cincy one regional partner.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

While true, aren't message boards built for speculation and insanity?

Just trying to calm this storm. We should be focusing on our top 10 team rather than something that literally no one has any idea how it will shake out. Not trying to be overly critical of you, just think it would be better for us to focus on what we can control rather than ruminate in anxiety for another month.

 

[bsaltyman]

Best case scenario is that ISU goes to the Big 10. I still think that can happen. Merging with the PAC 12 would be ok, but not best case scenario in my mind.

 

[I@ST1]

Those Pods won’t work. The original members won’t want an easier path for the newer members to the Championship Game. That’s the thing about Pod systems than people don’t think about.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

Best case scenario is that ISU goes to the Big 10. I still think that can happen. Merging with the PAC 12 would be ok, but not best case scenario in my mind.

I think it's better than a coin flip it could happen. Unless a blue blood ( basically none left outside Clemson, ND, MAYBE Florida State decide to jump ship) Pac 12 doesn't have the punching power it did in the past plus geographically they would need to add more than two teams from California to make it feasible IMO.

 

[SCNCY]

I think it's better than a coin flip it could happen. Unless a blue blood ( basically none left outside Clemson, ND, MAYBE Florida State decide to jump ship) Pac 12 doesn't have the punching power it did in the past plus geographically they would need to add more than two teams from California to make it feasible IMO.

If Fox wanted to make counter powerplay, they'd try and get some of the teams from the ACC to leave to the Big 12 with a new fat Fox media deal. Get eight ACC schools with eight Big 12 to form a new 16 team conference. With eight schools leaving the ACC, would that be enough to end the ACC grant of rights?

 

[buf87]

What is the current media revenue the various conferences receive annually?

 

[jackrabbit]

PROHIBITION ON STATE-FUNDED AND STATE-SPONSORED TRAVEL TO STATES WITH DISCRIMINATORY LAWS (ASSEMBLY BILL NO. 1887) | State of California - Department of Justice - Office of the Attorney General

From the 247 West Virginia site, this attached link indicates that CA state schools (UCLA and Cal-Berkley) can not travel to almost all of the current Big 12 states on state money. Plus the PAC-12 has not invited religious universities in the past. That pretty much rules any PAC-12 and Big 8 merger out.

So the Big 8 schools options are to remain the Big 8 (or invite a few others but who would dare join?) Big 10 (maybe 2 spots), ACC (maybe one or two spots) or most likely either the AAC or MWC. If the PAC-12 were to break up, then a few of the non CA schools and the Big 8 might form a conference.

 

[TXCyclones]

ACC is susceptible to losing schools like UNC, Duke, GaTech, and UVA (all AAU) to the B1G (and could make Notre Dame jump to B1G) , and Clemson & FSU to SEC. Except that would be several, several years out due to the airtight GOR of the ACC.

The PAC could ostensibly lose Colorado, Arizona, Utah, UCLA, USC, Cal, Wash, Oregon and Stanford to the B1G as they are all AAU and this would help build the nationwide footprint of the B1G. I think the Colorado piece would be the critical piece to keeping a somewhat georgraphic contiguous-ish footprint. This would be an incredible super conference spanning every time zone. Maybe even shoot for 32 teams and go to four 8-team pods. But then where would the PAC remnants end up?

 

[Win5002]

PROHIBITION ON STATE-FUNDED AND STATE-SPONSORED TRAVEL TO STATES WITH DISCRIMINATORY LAWS (ASSEMBLY BILL NO. 1887) | State of California - Department of Justice - Office of the Attorney General

From the 247 West Virginia site, this attached link indicates that CA state schools (UCLA and Cal-Berkley) can not travel to almost all of the current Big 12 states on state money. Plus the PAC-12 has not invited religious universities in the past. That pretty much rules any PAC-12 and Big 8 merger out.

So the Big 8 schools options are to remain the Big 8 (or invite a few others but who would dare join?) Big 10 (maybe 2 spots), ACC (maybe one or two spots) or most likely either the AAC or MWC. If the PAC-12 were to break up, then a few of the non CA schools and the Big 8 might form a conference.

I have seen comments before they can get around this if booster money is shifted to cover the cost. That may or may not be true.

If the B1G said fine we will take USC, Stanford, Or., UW, AZ or ASU & Colorado that may get rectified real quick.

 

[Win5002]

What is the current media revenue the various conferences receive annually?

In 2020
Big 12 37-40M
PAC 33.6
ACC Around 33M

ACC sees record revenue distribution in 2019-20

The ACC distributed a record $497.2 million for the 2019-20 financial year, the highest gross revenue ever reported for the league, according to tax documents released Friday.

www.espn.com

B1G 54M with a new deal coming soon.

Big Ten Daily: Big Ten Led All Conferences in 2020 Revenue

The Big Ten's total revenue dropped in 2020, but it was still about $40 million higher than the SEC. The conference lowered payouts to its 12 longest-standing members by about $1.3 million per school to $54.3 million.

www.si.com

SEC 45.5M

Southeastern Conference's revenue increased slightly to $729 million in 2020 fiscal year

The conference had $729 million in total revenue for fiscal year ending Aug. 31, 2020, according to a federal tax return the conference provided.

www.usatoday.com

When you see this the Big 12 with a few backfills is lucky if they made a new contract of 20M and more likely around 15M annually. It won't be pretty.

 

[Win5002]

I saw another board where someone suggested BYU and the 3 service academies(I think Houston is one of the best tv ratings additions). Interesting, they have some national following and the Army vs Navy game is huge ratings but it doesn't do much for basketball. I don't know if that would be football only. Would the league do a few basketball only schools like Creighton and Wichita St? Maybe even New Mexico or New Mexico St. for bball only they draw huge basketball crowds. Those types of basketball additions with BYU and Houston would make basketball a fun product in the league, especially if KU and WVU stay but the travel won't make a lot of sense for WVU.

The service academies is not the first option for anyone but its always there.

 

[CyclonesMoney]

The Pac is not going to take religious-affiliate schools. TCU, Baylor, and BYU are not going to be part of the PAC. Their only real hope is going to be ACC who have coveted Notre Dame.

So for argument's sake I could see something more like these 15:

Oregon, Oregon St, Wash, Wash St, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, CU, Utah, Kansas St, Okie St, Texas Tech, Arizona, ASU


***ISU and KU to the B1G***

Why does the PAC religious affiliated schools?