The Athletic- Big XII Predictions

[Statefan10]

We're starting to see some consistent issues with Matt Campbell teams that are handicapping season potentials.

1) Slow starts. Other than maybe 2017 against UNI, his teams have NOT been good in opening games, and even that one took awhile to get rolling. Usually it takes 3-4 games to get things sorted out before they go on a tear.

2) He can't beat Iowa. It is what it is until it isn't. We can't get over the hump until he can win that game.

3) Special teams are bad. A lot of missed field goals throughout the season (Texas aside). Muffing punts. Fair catching with room to run. Shanked punts.

I still think he's the best coach ISU has had in my lifetime, by a wide margin, but if these things don't change, 8 wins is probably the ceiling. And if we were guaranteed 8 wins every year, given our past, it seems just fine to me.

#2 on your list can be attributed almost entirely to #3. The past two years, we've essentially lost the game on special teams. 2018 we couldn't punt to save our lives (rugby style) and ended up shanking one late in the game to allow them a short field to score. And then obviously last year's huge f*** up.

 

[madguy30]

We're starting to see some consistent issues with Matt Campbell teams that are handicapping season potentials.

1) Slow starts. Other than maybe 2017 against UNI, his teams have NOT been good in opening games, and even that one took awhile to get rolling. Usually it takes 3-4 games to get things sorted out before they go on a tear.

2) He can't beat Iowa. It is what it is until it isn't. We can't get over the hump until he can win that game.

3) Special teams are bad. A lot of missed field goals throughout the season (Texas aside). Muffing punts. Fair catching with room to run. Shanked punts.

I still think he's the best coach ISU has had in my lifetime, by a wide margin, but if these things don't change, 8 wins is probably the ceiling. And if we were guaranteed 8 wins every year, given our past, it seems just fine to me.

He's at least been close with Iowa and Iowa's been pretty good during his time at ISU. CPR barely beat Iowa when they were pretty marginal or just flat bad.

Finishing out the season on the upswing is something I want to see.

 

[heitclone]

Last year is totally different if we make a couple of plays, Stanley threw two gift wrapped INT's in the 2nd half at JTS last year, catch one of those and we win. Jalen Hurts did the same thing in Norman, we had a dropped INT that gave them at TD and White dropped a pick 6 early on, make one of those plays and we win. As great as Campbell is and as much as he preaches about the details, his teams really have trouble with the little things. Special teams mistakes, penalties, turnovers etc. It makes some sense with as much roster turnover we've had the last 3 years but we're due for things to click. Hopefully having a roster of his recruits and a lot of 2/3 year players can get us over that hump.

 

[Statefan10]

Last year is totally different if we make a couple of plays, Stanley threw two gift wrapped INT's in the 2nd half at JTS last year, catch one of those and we win. Jalen Hurts did the same thing in Norman, we had a dropped INT that gave them at TD and White dropped a pick 6 early on, make one of those plays and we win. As great as Campbell is and as much as he preaches about the details, his teams really have trouble with the little things. Special teams mistakes, penalties, turnovers etc. It makes some sense with as much roster turnover we've had the last 3 years but we're due for things to click. Hopefully having a roster of his recruits and a lot of 2/3 year players can get us over that hump.

I would also like to throw in there the loads of false start penalties we've had at the most inopportune times.. On the goal line, on third and short, etc.

 

[JP4CY]

Fair assessment. I don't want to get "politcky" but I expected OSU to contend before the season and still for the most part do. If they can keep it between the lines, I think Bedlam might decide it.

 

[LincolnWay187]

Last year is totally different if we make a couple of plays, Stanley threw two gift wrapped INT's in the 2nd half at JTS last year, catch one of those and we win. Jalen Hurts did the same thing in Norman, we had a dropped INT that gave them at TD and White dropped a pick 6 early on, make one of those plays and we win. As great as Campbell is and as much as he preaches about the details, his teams really have trouble with the little things. Special teams mistakes, penalties, turnovers etc. It makes some sense with as much roster turnover we've had the last 3 years but we're due for things to click. Hopefully having a roster of his recruits and a lot of 2/3 year players can get us over that hump.

Thanks for reminding me of all the dropped INTs last year...ugh...

 

[Al_4_State]

Last year is totally different if we make a couple of plays, Stanley threw two gift wrapped INT's in the 2nd half at JTS last year, catch one of those and we win. Jalen Hurts did the same thing in Norman, we had a dropped INT that gave them at TD and White dropped a pick 6 early on, make one of those plays and we win. As great as Campbell is and as much as he preaches about the details, his teams really have trouble with the little things. Special teams mistakes, penalties, turnovers etc. It makes some sense with as much roster turnover we've had the last 3 years but we're due for things to click. Hopefully having a roster of his recruits and a lot of 2/3 year players can get us over that hump.

There is definitely a disconnect between Campbell's focus on details and last year's team's ability to execute details.

 

[surly]

I said last year how important that Iowa game was to getting ISU off on the right foot, to wit I got much blowback centered around Iowa doesn't play in the B12. Well, this year the Clones don't have to deal with them, which to my way of thinking if you're Cy fan is a good moment in this otherwise dreadful year.

Of the frontrunners, oSu's schedule is the only one that looks to be better formatted than ISU's. At TCU without their QB, then having OU in Ames is a gift. Maybe this is the year to make that run at the title.

 

[Statefan10]

I said last year how important that Iowa game was to getting ISU off on the right foot, to wit I got much blowback centered around Iowa doesn't play in the B12. Well, this year the Clones don't have to deal with them, which to my way of thinking if you're Cy fan is a good moment in this otherwise dreadful year.

Of the frontrunners, oSu's schedule is the only one that looks to be better formatted than ISU's. At TCU without their QB, then having OU in Ames is a gift. Maybe this is the year to make that run at the title.

And again, the Iowa game has no effect on how we do in the Big 12. All it does is give us an extra win at the end of the year, which certainly would be nice.

In 2017 we lost close to Iowa and then played Akron after, who we dominated. We lost to Texas after our QB decided to have a meltdown, but then rattled off 4 straight wins including @ #3 OU and vs. #4 TCU. Our next loss was to WVU on Nov. 4th. Do you really think that Iowa game had implications on the WVU game two months later? No.

In 2018 our opener got cancelled and our starting QB went down against Iowa. We played #5 OU at home the next week. Lost in a close battle, but don't think the Iowa game had anything to do with that loss nor the loss @ TCU two weeks later in which we still couldn't figure out our QB situation. In comes Purdy who rattles off 7 wins out of 8 games to finish the season, and the lone loss comes @ #13 Texas. That Texas loss had nothing to do with losing to Iowa.

Last year we lose to Iowa in a heartbreaker and then blow the doors off of LMU. We then go and lose to Baylor in which we gave up a two minute drill drive and lose on a field goal by a guy who hadn't made a kick in his career yet. Win 5 of the next 7, with the two losses coming to OSU and OU by 8 points combined. Do any of those losses stem from losing to Iowa the 2nd game of the year? No.

 

[DrClone]

Understand your point. Might have been good coaching if the staff didn't have confidence in making the catch. But I agree with your points.

 

[Aclone]

Not sure if I can hook this prediction to my veins or not

i just signed up for the Athletic a few weeks ago. Is that their whole conference preview? That could’ve been written in 10 minutes.

That was only a small portion of the article.

Maybe this will help?

Sleeper team
The Cyclones might not be much of a true sleeper anymore as a preseason top-25 team, but they might have what it takes to sneak into the Big 12 championship game this year. Purdy is a special player. He’s surrounded by a speedy cast of skill players and supported by a defense that has been very effective in league play under Jon Heacock. Over the past three seasons, Matt Campbell’s squads have defeated every team in the conference at least once. This year’s team is deeper and more talented. If it can play with better week-to-week consistency, Iowa State can do what Baylor did in 2019: win a bunch of close games and end up in Arlington in December. — Max Olson

 

[coolerifyoudid]

I said last year how important that Iowa game was to getting ISU off on the right foot, to wit I got much blowback centered around Iowa doesn't play in the B12. Well, this year the Clones don't have to deal with them, which to my way of thinking if you're Cy fan is a good moment in this otherwise dreadful year.

Of the frontrunners, oSu's schedule is the only one that looks to be better formatted than ISU's. At TCU without their QB, then having OU in Ames is a gift. Maybe this is the year to make that run at the title.

Looking at those schedules, TCU really has the best home/away schedule of anyone. 5 home games with only 1 of their 4 away games being against a projected top-half team (Texas).

 

[surly]

Looking at those schedules, TCU really has the best home/away schedule of anyone. 5 home games with only 1 of their 4 away games being against a projected top-half team (Texas).

TCU isn't a top-four contender though. I was speaking about schedules for those expected to challenge for the title: ISU, oSu, OU, Texas.

 

[VeloClone]

And again, the Iowa game has no effect on how we do in the Big 12. All it does is give us an extra win at the end of the year, which certainly would be nice.
...
Last year we lose to Iowa in a heartbreaker and then blow the doors off of LMU. We then go and lose to Baylor in which we gave up a two minute drill drive and lose on a field goal by a guy who hadn't made a kick in his career yet. Win 5 of the next 7, with the two losses coming to OSU and OU by 8 points combined. Do any of those losses stem from losing to Iowa the 2nd game of the year? No.

But if ISU beats Iowa last year I'm pretty sure that the Iowa State bench would have been about 25 degrees cooler in Waco.

 

[tyler24]

We're starting to see some consistent issues with Matt Campbell teams that are handicapping season potentials.

1) Slow starts. Other than maybe 2017 against UNI, his teams have NOT been good in opening games, and even that one took awhile to get rolling. Usually it takes 3-4 games to get things sorted out before they go on a tear.

2) He can't beat Iowa. It is what it is until it isn't. We can't get over the hump until he can win that game.

3) Special teams are bad. A lot of missed field goals throughout the season (Texas aside). Muffing punts. Fair catching with room to run. Shanked punts.

I still think he's the best coach ISU has had in my lifetime, by a wide margin, but if these things don't change, 8 wins is probably the ceiling. And if we were guaranteed 8 wins every year, given our past, it seems just fine to me.

Remember, all consistency starts with inconsistencies. I will guarantee Campbell sees the patterns that are showing up in his career and is working to identify why they are occurring.

Also, the foundation of this program is looking like it's just about set. I would imagine this year or next year being huge seasons for us. I think Campbell has what he needs now with his talent and instilling his mindset into players.

I think we are going to see things we have never seen at Iowa State before under this staff. Let's enjoy it and not become an entitled fan base like Nebraska or Iowa. Enjoy the ride!

 

[isutrevman]

We're starting to see some consistent issues with Matt Campbell teams that are handicapping season potentials.

1) Slow starts. Other than maybe 2017 against UNI, his teams have NOT been good in opening games, and even that one took awhile to get rolling. Usually it takes 3-4 games to get things sorted out before they go on a tear.

2) He can't beat Iowa. It is what it is until it isn't. We can't get over the hump until he can win that game.

3) Special teams are bad. A lot of missed field goals throughout the season (Texas aside). Muffing punts. Fair catching with room to run. Shanked punts.

I still think he's the best coach ISU has had in my lifetime, by a wide margin, but if these things don't change, 8 wins is probably the ceiling. And if we were guaranteed 8 wins every year, given our past, it seems just fine to me.

For as much as we preach "winning in the margins", we were really bad in the margins last year. Which is surprising because we were pretty good in Campbell's first 3 years.

 

[CyGuy5]

In my opinion it comes down to Tom Manning and the secondary. If Manning doesn't make the same mistakes as last season and the secondary improves we've got a good shot at going to Dallas (I hope)

 

[Aclone]

We're starting to see some consistent issues with Matt Campbell teams that are handicapping season potentials.

If you want to talk about consistencies, let’s talk about the ones that aren’t...well, that are equally the result of a program building up from being a dumpster fire.

A. Units Improve
I don’t know where to start, Quarterback or the Defensive Line?

First, not only is Brock Purdy the best quarterback in Cyclone history, his backups are likely the most talented QB recruits in ISU history.

Including Brock.

I’ve been watching recruiting for over forty years.

Talent on the DL has been a sea change, going not only back to the Brent Curvey etc. group, but back to the man eaters of the late Seventies. I won’t debate the talent at the top, but depth goes deeper—talent three deep on a four man front depth chart—than I’ve ever seen it. Ever.

And it’s not even close.

Safeties? Best shape I’ve ever seen them in. Corners? Despite the questions left over from last season (mostly due to injury it’ll inexperience), there’ll be answers. The linebackers have a burly starting trio—and more depth than Dan McCarney ever dreamed about. The WR room is...breathtaking to me.

And I might have accidentally skipped the tight ends.

The OL room is the next one to take a big step, between this year and next.

And as far as the kickers and punters...that’s an issue of Narveson not panning out—despite a strong leg—and Corey Dunn’s inconsistency. Given that all four of the punters and kickers are officially “seniors“, perhaps this year’s recruiting will offer a long term solution.

* By the way, your #3 was an exaggeration, and doesn’t belong on the list. For example, shanked punts were a problem at the start of 2018–and resolved by avoiding rugby style punts thereafter.

Missed kicks? That stabilized when they started only making attempts inside Assalley’s range. More obsolete data.

The main changes about catching had to do with rules changes about all placement.

Take out those exceptions and everything else on the list seemed pretty much within the statistical norm for imperfect college students making their fair share of mistakes.

I’ll even point out that the coverage units have been very good.

 

[Aclone]

#2 on your list can be attributed almost entirely to #3. The past two years, we've essentially lost the game on special teams. 2018 we couldn't punt to save our lives (rugby style) and ended up shanking one late in the game to allow them a short field to score. And then obviously last year's huge f*** up.

You realize the last shanked rugby style punt that season was like in the Iowa game, right?

I know it was bad, but people probably shouldn’t blur that across the whole season.

 

[Neptune78]

In my opinion it comes down to Tom Manning and the secondary. If Manning doesn't make the same mistakes as last season and the secondary improves we've got a good shot at going to Dallas (I hope)

As Jay eluded to in the kick-off show, hopefully McCall has an influence in the coaches room and brings some new twists to the offense.