THT Going into the Draft
- Thread starter JM4CY
- Start date
Whenever we discuss guaranteed money, I think of Royce White.
He made 3.4 million dollars as the 16th pick and did not play in the NBA. (maybe a couple of games?)
As I was looking up his salary I saw a list of 2012 draft picks. Everyone raves about the Warriors drafting ability but they chose Festus Ezeli (OK player but not great) with the 30th pick and he sign a roughly $ 2,000,000 rookie contract. Five picks later they signed Draymond Green who had to work his way on to the team and eventually signed a 2 year contract worth $850,000 per year.
He made 3.4 million dollars as the 16th pick and did not play in the NBA. (maybe a couple of games?)
As I was looking up his salary I saw a list of 2012 draft picks. Everyone raves about the Warriors drafting ability but they chose Festus Ezeli (OK player but not great) with the 30th pick and he sign a roughly $ 2,000,000 rookie contract. Five picks later they signed Draymond Green who had to work his way on to the team and eventually signed a 2 year contract worth $850,000 per year.
While it is true the NBA Barganing agreement doesn't require the team drafting the player to give them a guaranteed contract most the deal 31-45ish actually do get negotiated money in their contracts often up near to the level of the last pick of the First round.
Also a number of second round picks are "bought" for up to 2 million by teams, and if that occurs the GM is heavily invested in those players succeeding.
It is far preferable to be a 1at round pick, but I just wanted to point out the drop off isn't a mile if THT slips to the early 2nd round.
FWIW I still believe a team in the 20's will take a chance on Talen's physical tools and age. We have to remember a lot of the mocks are from one person's perspective and some may be scared off by his uneven play others look at his potential and have him as a last half pick in their eyes. All he needs is one GM out of the #15-#30 to have the optimistic outlook for him to be a first rounder.
Cleveland?! May God have mercy on his soul/career. Maybe Beilein can turn that thing around.
The thing that doesn't get said enough is, there are really only a handful of picks that actually matter in the NBA draft. Teams don't rely on the draft to build their teams, some are jockeying a season or two ahead to get in a position to make a free agency move for would be free agents years down the road.
Most of these picks are a 2 or 3 year investment at best, even the top picks aren't guaranteed to stick around so there is just very little risk in drafting a guy who has some potential or intangibles, THT has both of those. Worst case scenario, a kid doesn't pan out, you GL them and sign a free agent.
Most of these picks are a 2 or 3 year investment at best, even the top picks aren't guaranteed to stick around so there is just very little risk in drafting a guy who has some potential or intangibles, THT has both of those. Worst case scenario, a kid doesn't pan out, you GL them and sign a free agent.
True...but from the player's perspective that is huge! How many guys are hoping to stick or slide into the first round...that have late first round grades/early second round grades? But may or may not fit the need of a team? There are many factors at play...team needs may push a kid out of the first round or a team not taking someone expected to go early and it throws off who is available at certain picks. The uncertainty would be crazy on draft night for those late first round players!
20-30 is a fair assessment. A lot of people don't understand or can't see it, but there was a lot of good that THT did this year. Albeit very overshadowed by his poor performances late in the year. But if you think that "question mark/red flag" will keep the late 1st round teams from taking a chance, all you need to do is look at Arfernee Simons.
If THT was coming back next year, everyone would expect a big jump from him and predict all-conference honors.
But he sucks because he declared for the draft.
Yeah, okay.
But he sucks because he declared for the draft.
Yeah, okay.
As a Cavs fan, I would be ecstatic if the draft fell like that. Culver or Reddish with THT.
Worst case for THT he falls to the second round, but he’s so young and talented with a freakish wingspan and good weight for his size that a team will still sign him to a two way contract and let him play in the G-League.
His readiness has very little relevance. The fact that he can clearly develop into somebody who IS ready is why he's draftable.
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
There almost needs to be an entrance requirement for these NBA Draft threads to see if posters understand that teams are looking long-term with picks, and not necessarily at right-now contributions.
We've had guys going through this for a few years now. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out.
We've had guys going through this for a few years now. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out.
Why would anyone just assume that I'm not hoping for the best for THT? I've never said that, and never would because it's the exact opposite of how I feel. I would love it if THT gets drafted in the 1st round and excels in the NBA. It would be awesome for both him and for Prohm and ISU.
That has absolutely nothing to do with my opinion of what I would do if I were an NBA GM. And I believe some on here can't look objectively at this through their cardinal and gold glasses.
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
If you were an NBA GM, you would have been trained to make the decisions that they make, and you'd do exactly what they do.
They aren't just hiring off the street at random.
Yes, the cost of missing on a late first rounder isn’t very high. Doesn’t hurt as much as missing in the NFL.
It's pretty much a crapshoot anyway, but you obviously understand that. Their success rate isn't very good and wouldn't be very hard for any of us to match or beat.
All I'm saying, and it could be a completely wrong approach, I fully admit that, is that I would try to draft more on guys that are more ready to go now instead of on potential. This whole idea that you need to take a teenager because juniors and especially seniors are too old is total BS IMO.
So you have teams taking 7'4" guys that haven't shown the ability to really do anything, but hey they are 18 years old and just think what they MIGHT become with years and years of training and adding weight and muscle, etc. Who cares that stats show their knees will never hold up, right?
Anyway, best of luck to THT! I really hope he does great. If he does, it will because he has worked diligently on his weaknesses, and I really hope he is.
Knowing the NBA drafts for talent and potential isn’t cardinal and gold classes. They love youth, and they love measurables. They will take the younger talented freshman over the polished less talented senior every time.
THT is a rare type teams will be interested in.
