Official Bowl Watch thread

[cyworship]

Ohio State is probably going to thoroughly trash Northwestern. They will be laser focused, knowing they run up the score something ridiculous and they’ll be in the playoff over OU. Similar to Texas, they have been a team this season that can turn it on and off, and Playoff Committee loves them some cheap “style points”. OU will need to drub Texas to get in, especially if Georgia beats Alabama.

Just to add to this lets say the OSU does thoroughly trash NW and gets the 4th CFP spot, Alabama/Clemson/UCF win, and OU wins a close game with Texas. Does TX stay high enough in CFP poll to get an at large NY6 spot in Feista or Peach?

Cotton = Bama x OSU
Orange = Clemson x ND
Sugar (Big 12 x SEC) = OU x Georgia
Rose (Pac 12 x B1G) = Washington/Utah x Michigan
Peach = UCF x Florida
Fiesta = Texas x LSU ........ There are 2 spots for 4 teams (Texas, LSU, Washington State, or Penn State). Placement based on rank in CFP poll. If Texas is 9ish this week and they lose to OU in a close game do they stay high enough to get one of these two spots? I would propose a scenario where TX loses but plays OU close enough they only drop a couple spots and stay in ranking for an at large Fiesta spot. Big 12 gets two NY6 teams.

Or scenario 2: OU beats Texas handily by a wide margin and that is enough to avenge their only loss of the season and get OU into the playoff. In that case Texas takes the open spot in the Sugar. Or scenario 3: Texas wins and goes to Sugar and OU takes one of the at large spots. Either way the Big 12 gets two NY6 teams.

Now when it comes to the Alamo picking either WVU or ISU that is where I am not sure who they will pick??? WVU will be the higher ranked team around #15 while we will be maybe #20ish. So not sure who they will lean towards? Or the Big 12 only gets one NY6 spot and the Camping World is picking between WVU or ISU. Not sure what their main decision criteria will be? Both teams will likely have 8 wins, both ranked, both decent media talking point stories, etc.

 

[Cardinal and Gold]

This is kind of a no brainer:

Plus FPI, sor, sos and top 25 wins will all increase if they beat Texas. Fpi, sor, and sos will not increase the same if Ohio State beats Northwestern. Creating even a larger margin between the two teams. OU should be in if they win out. There could even be an argument they jump Notre Dame and get in at #3 with a 13th data point and conference champs, with Notre Dame at #4 seed.

 

[CysRage]

This is kind of a no brainer:
View attachment 60326
Plus CPI, sor, sos and top 25 wins will all increase if they beat Texas. Fpi, sor, and sos will not increase the same if Ohio State beats Northwestern. Creating even a larger margin between the two teams. OU should be in if they win out. There could even be an argument they jump Notre Dame and get in at #3 with a 13th data point and conference champs, with Notre Dame at #4 seed.

You can tell this to the playoff committee and the national media when they pick Ohio over OU. The Big Ten bias is terrible.

 

[Cyclonepride]

OU defense against Alabama will be embarrassing.

 

[clonedude]

OU defense against Alabama will be embarrassing.

So would tOSU's defense. Your point is?

Why is it important to look any deeper than your W-L record, your good wins, your bad losses, your SOS, etc? Why is defense looked at? Or offense?

Heck, if OU's 3rd down conversion is bad (I have no idea if it is or not?), should that be a knock on their playoff chances too? How about # of penalties? Should that be a factor too?

 

[Cyclonepride]

So would tOSU's defense. Your point is?

Why is it important to look any deeper than your W-L record, your good wins, your bad losses, your SOS, etc? Why is defense looked at? Or offense?

Heck, if OU's 3rd down conversion is bad (I have no idea if it is or not?), should that be a knock on their playoff chances too? How about # of penalties? Should that be a factor too?

Just an observation, not a judgement on inclusion

 

[delt4cy]

We're witnessing a similar scenario as last year unfold. For our Alamo Bowl dreams, let's hope the CFP committee is consistent.

2017: Ohio St. had an embarrassing blowout loss to a middle of the road Iowa later in the season.
OU had a close loss to middle of the road Iowa State early on and recovered.
OU also beat Ohio State on the road, so putting Ohio State in last year would have been incomprehensible.

This year is similar, but the ESPN spin doctors are already hard at work.
2018: OSU has a blowout loss @ middle of the road Purdue
OU has a last second field goal loss to Top 10ish Texas
The difference is the lack of head to head win obviously.

Technically, OU only has 1 win over a ranked opponent (@ #13 WVU), while OSU has 4 wins (#15 TCU, @ #9 Penn St, @ #18 Mich State, and #4 Mich). Even though the snapshot rankings are meaningless, the ESPN talking heads will be spouting this data en masse this week, just watch. They will also be spouting off on the arbitrary "no defense" garbage while fully ignoring the ying to the defensive yang, a great offense.

All that said, I predict a playoff of:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Oklahoma

That leaves NY6 matchups of:
Sugar - Texas vs. Georgia
Rose - Wash/Utah vs. Ohio St
Fiesta - Michigan vs. UCF
Peach - Penn State vs. Florida

That's a pretty compelling bowl lineup with some classic Blue Blood match-ups.

Iowa State vs. Washington St. in Alamo. Loser of Pac12 Champ will fall to Holiday bowl imo.

I love that matchup! Perfect for our Defense-

 

[Cardinal and Gold]

Big 12 comes in 2nd of p5 conferences with 70% of the league bowl eligible (SEC has 78.5%). If we get 2 teams into NY6 (unlike last years 1) the payout per team should increase and close the gap with big 10’s payout per team. We do have 1 less team eligible this year, but a Ny6 payout will way outweigh a low level bowl’s.

 

[clonedlion]

We're witnessing a similar scenario as last year unfold. For our Alamo Bowl dreams, let's hope the CFP committee is consistent.

2017: Ohio St. had an embarrassing blowout loss to a middle of the road Iowa later in the season.
OU had a close loss to middle of the road Iowa State early on and recovered.
OU also beat Ohio State on the road, so putting Ohio State in last year would have been incomprehensible.

This year is similar, but the ESPN spin doctors are already hard at work.
2018: OSU has a blowout loss @ middle of the road Purdue
OU has a last second field goal loss to Top 10ish Texas
The difference is the lack of head to head win obviously.

Technically, OU only has 1 win over a ranked opponent (@ #13 WVU), while OSU has 4 wins (#15 TCU, @ #9 Penn St, @ #18 Mich State, and #4 Mich). Even though the snapshot rankings are meaningless, the ESPN talking heads will be spouting this data en masse this week, just watch. They will also be spouting off on the arbitrary "no defense" garbage while fully ignoring the ying to the defensive yang, a great offense.

All that said, I predict a playoff of:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Oklahoma

That leaves NY6 matchups of:
Sugar - Texas vs. Georgia
Rose - Wash/Utah vs. Ohio St
Fiesta - Michigan vs. UCF
Peach - Penn State vs. Florida

That's a pretty compelling bowl lineup with some classic Blue Blood match-ups.

Iowa State vs. Washington St. in Alamo. Loser of Pac12 Champ will fall to Holiday bowl imo.

I love that matchup! Perfect for our Defense-

I forget the exact stats but there is a very strong trend betting against Leach offense in a bowl game vs respectable defense. Michigan State killed them last year with a 3 point spread. No doubt strong advantage Iowa State if they played Wash St in a bowl.

 

[CNECloneFan]

This is kind of a no brainer:
View attachment 60326
Plus FPI, sor, sos and top 25 wins will all increase if they beat Texas. Fpi, sor, and sos will not increase the same if Ohio State beats Northwestern. Creating even a larger margin between the two teams. OU should be in if they win out. There could even be an argument they jump Notre Dame and get in at #3 with a 13th data point and conference champs, with Notre Dame at #4 seed.

Rubric schmoobric.

tOSU will get the nod. No matter what.

 

[Cyclonepride]

The coolest part of examining the possibilities is that this doesn’t seem in any way like a lightning in the bottle season. We will be back in this position.

 

[Erik4Cy]

I keep hearing Iowa State to the Texas Bowl in Houston vs SEC team (Auburn) on Thu Dec 27th???

I would much rather have the Alamo Bowl or Camping World Bowl since they are on Fri Dec 28th. Please make it so CFB gods/ISU/AD JP.

 

[isufbcurt]

OU defense against Alabama will be embarrassing.

Why does everyone bag on OU's defense? Yeah they aren't the best but they were better than everyone but one team so far.

 

[isufbcurt]

I think the rankings this week will be a good predictor of how the Committee feels about OU vs OSU.

OU should be 5
But it will be curious if UCF is 6 or 7
and if OSU is 6 or 7

If it's OU, UCF, OSU then I don't see anyway OSU could jump OU if they both win, but if it is OU, OSU, UCF then there is a chance OSU could jump OU if they both win. Very curious to see what the committee does with UCF, will they take the QB injury into consideration?

 

[ArgentCy]

Why does everyone bag on OU's defense? Yeah they aren't the best but they were better than everyone but one team so far.

Umm, they gave up 40 to Kansas. They give up 40 to everyone. I don't know what their DB's problems are but they look like they are running in sand. Pretty sure I could run right by them.

 

[Shawker]

I think the rankings this week will be a good predictor of how the Committee feels about OU vs OSU.

OU should be 5
But it will be curious if UCF is 6 or 7
and if OSU is 6 or 7

If it's OU, UCF, OSU then I don't see anyway OSU could jump OU if they both win, but if it is OU, OSU, UCF then there is a chance OSU could jump OU if they both win. Very curious to see what the committee does with UCF, will they take the QB injury into consideration?

I'm guessing UCF will take a hit with Milton going down. That drastically changes their outlook.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Why does everyone bag on OU's defense? Yeah they aren't the best but they were better than everyone but one team so far.

Why?

109th in total yards at 5388 (ISU had 3933)
111th in yards per game at 449 (ISU had 358)
127th in passing yards at 3439 (ISU had 2524)
64th in rushing yards at 1949 (ISU had 1409)
100th in points per game at 32.8 (ISU had 22.4)

Keep in mind that there are 130 teams in FBS. They were in the lower half of all but one of those categories, and in passing yards they were the 4th worst in all of FBS.

That is why people bag on OU's defense. They didn't win games because of their defense; they won games because their opponents couldn't keep pace putting up points.

 

[CyForPresident]

Why?

109th in total yards at 5388 (ISU had 3933)
111th in yards per game at 449 (ISU had 358)
127th in passing yards at 3439 (ISU had 2524)
64th in rushing yards at 1949 (ISU had 1409)
100th in points per game at 32.8 (ISU had 22.4)

Keep in mind that there are 130 teams in FBS. They were in the lower half of all but one of those categories, and in passing yards they were the 4th worst in all of FBS.

That is why people bag on OU's defense. They didn't win games because of their defense; they won games because their opponents couldn't keep pace putting up points.

What’s wrong with that? They’ve still won 11 of 12 games and if they win on Saturday, beaten everyone they’ve played.

 

[CrossCyed]

There's a lot of people that think bowl projections mean anything and I absolutely don't understand it. The only thing that matters before this weekend's games is the poll coming out Tuesday to see how the committee views OU/Ohio State. Every projection you see doesn't mean anything is more or less likely.

 

[jdoggivjc]

What’s wrong with that? They’ve still won 11 of 12 games and if they win on Saturday, beaten everyone they’ve played.

I didn't say there was anything wrong with it. The question was "why do people bag on OU's defense?" I think I laid out pretty explicitly why.