ISU has had ice cold games. Indiana State and Cincy for example. Cincy is a much better defensive team, but it's certainly possible. Naz still ain't right. Massey ratings have ISU with a 66% chance to win, which really would make an Iowa win not entirely unlikely.
That said, this is a game ISU absolutely needs to have. I think they are at genuine risk of not making the tourney if they don't beat Iowa, because they would only have 1 decent win in the noncon. ISU doesn't have a strong noncon like they have in the past.
Is he trying to prop Iowa up as a "decent win"?
I don't know I wouldn't doubt it he panders to the hok fans pretty hard under the guise of being the "level-headed ISU fan". I have a different word for what that is. Maybe he just saw the "big 12 is down this year! hype" before the season and latched on to it. RPI/non-con won't be an issue again in this conference. Maybe for seeding but there is no "genuine risk" of missing the tournament based on this game. The conference season will decide our fate just like it always does.