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Possible huge snow storm next week?

Weather models are just like real models. Fun to look at but fairly inaccurate on specific knowledge they give you.
 
bawbie said:
Or the technically correct game of "Who's prediction is correct?"

It's only lying if they know the answer and are saying something else. People are so weird - yeah, the weatherman actually knows that your house is only going to get 3" of snow, but he's intentionally ******* with you telling you it's going to be 6".
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So really, the correct game is "Who is the least terrible at their job"
 
Projected totals for central Iowa keep dropping. Those thinking you were going to get a snow day from work or school, prepare to be disappointed.
 
scottie33 said:
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED B/T 03-06Z OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA AND B/T 06-09Z FURTHER NORTH. VERY POTENT 300MB JET
PLACES IOWA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION PROVIDING PLENTY OF DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN 06-18Z
TUESDAY. ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE...SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST AN ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHT BUT THE FORCING WITHIN THE
DGZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW
FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IOWA. THE BEST CROSS SECTION
TO SHOW THE SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE EPV AND THETA-E DECREASING WITH
HEIGHT EXTENDS FROM NW IOWA TO NE MISSOURI. LARGE CROSS HAIR OF
OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ B/T 09-15Z WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING B/T 600-650MB AS WELL AS B/T 700-750MB SHOULD LEAD TO
HEAVY BANDED SNOW DURING THIS TIME IN THE WARNING AREAS. PLUS WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE UVM...700-500MB LAPSE RATES MUCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 6.0 TO 7.5 C/KM AND 50-100 MB RESPECTIVELY. THIS
IS LIKELY ENOUGH TO RELEASE CSI AND CAUSE SOME BRIEF STINTS OF
THUNDERSNOW TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD 6-12 INCH BAND
IS ANTICIPATED...EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SPOTS TO SEE NEAR 15
WITHIN THE TSSN REGION. THIS ROUGHLY FROM DES MOINES TO CARROLL
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH AMES TO IOWA FALLS/MARSHALLTOWN...AND MAYBE
AS FAR EAST AS WATERLOO. EXPECTING SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES
WITH OVER 3 INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

NWS Des Moines talking about Thundersnow from Des Moines to Carrol and to the Northeast through Ames.

Dry slot remains South of Des Moines from Mt. Ayr to Indianola and Northeastward.


This was posted by NWS Des Moines who seems like a very good source of information.
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Hack bloggers.
 
bawbie said:
Seriously. seriously? If you don't want weather forecasts, THEN DON'T READ THEM!!!
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But how will they blame the media and meteorologists for hyping the storm just for to hardly do anything at their location.
 
awd4cy said:
With out them you wouldn't have a clue if tomorrow is going to be 60 degrees or 20 degrees, rain, snow, thunderstorm, etc.
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we does temp swing so much in the winter compared to the summer? it's always within 10 degrees or so in the summer but the winter can be 30-40 degree changes within a day. why is that?
 
mtowncyclone13 said:
we does temp swing so much in the winter compared to the summer? it's always within 10 degrees or so in the summer but the winter can be 30-40 degree changes within a day. why is that?
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Albedo effect.

Snow is white, so it reflects most of the suns energy making very tough to warm up. Effect is most dramatic on fresh snow...the older and dirtier it gets, the more heat it absorbs and warms the air.

Bare ground absobs much more heat, so snow/no snow swings things wildly.

Also there is a much stronger jet stream in winter, which helps drive arctic air.
 
TIL! I love weather threads!

FDWxMan said:
Albedo effect.

Snow is white, so it reflects most of the suns energy making very tough to warm up. Effect is most dramatic on fresh snow...the older and dirtier it gets, the more heat it absorbs and warms the air.

Bare ground absobs much more heat, so snow/no snow swings things wildly.

Also there is a much stronger jet stream in winter, which helps drive arctic air.
Click to expand...
 
FDWxMan said:
Albedo effect.

Snow is white, so it reflects most of the suns energy making very tough to warm up. Effect is most dramatic on fresh snow...the older and dirtier it gets, the more heat it absorbs and warms the air.

Bare ground absobs much more heat, so snow/no snow swings things wildly.

Also there is a much stronger jet stream in winter, which helps drive arctic air.
Click to expand...

IW8simF.gif
 
I live in Ames and my broken ankle from years past is not aching yet, so that means the lower pressure gradiant is not going to affect us that much. This means that we will get very little snow. WOW! Did I just become a meteorologist or what? Yep!! You wanna go out and do karate in the garage? Yep!!
 
mtowncyclone13 said:
we does temp swing so much in the winter compared to the summer? it's always within 10 degrees or so in the summer but the winter can be 30-40 degree changes within a day. why is that?
Click to expand...

Standard deviation for high temperatures in July gets down to like 5 or 6 degrees, and in January gets up to some l thing like 15 to 17.

More info than you probably wanted, but, stats!
 
The NWS in Sioux Falls just tweeted that the track has shifted to the NW and the heaviest snow will be Northwest Iowa now.

Looks like a good day to take off of work and get blizzard blasted (drunk not phallic).
 
The gradients on this are just crazy in Eastern IA and especially the I-380 corridor. you can go from a trace to 1" at the very southern end. potentially be up into 2-4" in CR 4"-6" around Urbana and 8-10" at the very northern end in Waterloo.
 
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