Remember when everyone wondered why OU was so quiet during all the conference realignment crap? They've probably been working behind the scenes hardcore on an exit plan all along.
Oklahoma Contemplating Leaving Big XII
- Thread starter sdclone
- Start date
I am an UCONN fan and we will be playing you guys soon.
The fact OU president just openly stated that they are looking means they already found a landing spot and ready to move. No president would make that kind of comment unless he is leaving the conference. With OU to the PAC-12, OSU/UT/TTECH will surely follow. PAC-12 might just take OU and OSU, but I doubt it. Unfortunately for the B12, this is most likely the end game.
I think your comments are off regarding revenue. BE's new TV contract is projected to be $19M to $23M per team per year.
Looking at your recent revenue of $46.1M per year, you would be 7th out of 9 schools (including TCU) in the BE with total revenue generated. You will have higher revenue than just USF and Cincy. Other BE schools all make more with UCONN, UL and WVU making much more. Remember this is with the crappy BE contract now, BE already turned down $1.4B deal with ESPN so they expect more. When it is all said and done, BE should get more than $18M per year in the new TV deal.
Based on USW&R for academic rankings, 5 BE schools (UCONN, RU, Pitt, SU and TCU) would rank higher than Kansas, KSU, Missouri and ISU.
Regardless what media has been saying about the BE, BE would be much more stable with addition of several B12 schools.
It it most likely BE will take 3 of you to go to 12. It is possible BE might take the other 2 left behind to go to 14 if TV deal will justify it.
There is a window until next 9/12 for the BE to get the membership finalized before they sit down with the TV folks. It looks like things are moving pretty fast now with OU and A&M openly looking at other conferences.
I think the low end schools better start working on a plan with the acc and be. It would make sense 2 add the b12 schools to the be. The be is up and coming in football and the b12 teams would be a good fit, plus the basketball would be an added bonus and give the clones even better access to their current recruiting hotbeds. I would much rather join the b10 but thats all but a lost hope unless they want 2 keep up with the pac and are limited on options. Id still rather be in the b12 than any. Texas isnt invincible and with the addition of other op programs their power will be reduced. Here's to hoping for a bowl game and tourney birth to show our worth.
Did Fred see the BE scenario coming? Is that an extra reason to recruit the Northeast so hard (besides the awesome recruits)?
See you out there in a few weeks. I guess I'll take the time I'm there to start learning about our new conference...
He is right. No BE school would consider the B12 with its current setup especially considering BE got a pot of gold waiting by Nov of 2012 in the new TV contract.
Texas got a huge ego and they want to run the conference. Schools with options like Nebraska, OU and A&M know that it won't work for long term. Texas will most likely concede the Longhorn Network and join the PAC-16.
ISU, KU, KSU and Missouri better be looking hard at the BE. That's the only life boat left and it will close by next year.
I can see 4 super conferences forming. One in the West (PAC-16), one in the mid-west (B1G), one in the south (SEC) and one in the Northeast (BE or BE/ACC/B12 merger).
I don't think ACC will survive for the long term because they overlap with the SEC. SEC might just pick bunch of schools off there. Schools like VTECH, Maryland and NCST are attractive to the SEC with new states. Northeast will need a super conference. There is no way TV networks like ESPN will blow up the northeast because there are simply too much population there for TV eyeballs.
It is a good thing OU is ending this thing now. I did not think last year B12 was gonna last and nothing has changed my mind. As long as Texas gets what it wants, there will be no stability in any conference Horns are in.
Can't wait to square off with you guys in Stores. I do agree with most of your analysis on how the big east will consume the big12. But, you have a few figures that aren't quite right:
1) in USN&WR ISU ranks ahead of TCU, so we'd be 5th in the big east...not that any of the conference realignment has anything to do with academics.
2) This year, ISU's TV revenue will jump by $8M due to our slice of the TV pie being bigger with A&M, NU, and CU not getting anything. So all other things being equal ISU will pass Pitt, Syracuse and TCU in total revenue when the 2010-2011 revenue figures are out. That would make ISU 4th out of 9 in the Big East, $4M behind UConn and $8-10M behind WVU and Louisville.
But then, of course, when he goes on record and says things like he does, it does nothing but sabotage that whole "goal".
Great points.
Consider also that several of the current Big East teams will become targets for expansion by other conferences. Some of the names above ISU on both lists probably disappear. The problem then becomes that the conference potentially drops in value, resulting in less revenue for each member.
I am not buying that expenses will jump Big Time. We would be in a football division with KSU, KU, TCU, L'ville and Cinn most likely. That is not much farther than we travel now. When you add non-football sports, our division is likely Notre Dame, Marquette, DePaul, ??? Plus the football teams. The main games would be against Midwest teams. ISU travels by plane to OK and TX right now. So to east coast, we would to and the distance is not much different especially to DC, PITT AND WVU. Also, we might even bus some lower sports to Milwaukee or Chicago.
This Big East Talk Might Be a Waste Also
IMO if 16 team confernces are the direction of things to come- the Big East and Big 12 are probably gone.
The only question, does the NCAA step in and make this an orderly process or is this going to be a wild west shoot out with the Big 10, ACC, SEC and Pac 12 in a tug-o-war to get the most desirable schools - Texas, OU, ND.
My struggle is I just don't see how 16 team conferences make sense from a competition standpoint. IMO the Big East basketball set-up is a mess during the regular season. The only thing that saves it is the excitement of the Big East Hoops Tournament, which is essentially a mini NCAA Tournament because 6-8 of the top 40 teams in the country are playing.
Maybe someone needs to explain to me the benefits of 16 team conferences. Heck the Pac 12 sounds like it is going in the direction of having regional networks- why not just go with 9 or 10 team conferences then?
IMO if 16 team confernces are the direction of things to come- the Big East and Big 12 are probably gone.
The only question, does the NCAA step in and make this an orderly process or is this going to be a wild west shoot out with the Big 10, ACC, SEC and Pac 12 in a tug-o-war to get the most desirable schools - Texas, OU, ND.
My struggle is I just don't see how 16 team conferences make sense from a competition standpoint. IMO the Big East basketball set-up is a mess during the regular season. The only thing that saves it is the excitement of the Big East Hoops Tournament, which is essentially a mini NCAA Tournament because 6-8 of the top 40 teams in the country are playing.
Maybe someone needs to explain to me the benefits of 16 team conferences. Heck the Pac 12 sounds like it is going in the direction of having regional networks- why not just go with 9 or 10 team conferences then?
I don't know if there are any benefits but it doesn't really matter because that is what people are thinking. Its kinda like wall st. when the market goes up or down a lot of times is because of what people think; not what are actually facts. Until conferences stabilize at 16 any conf with less is subject to being raided.
Re: This Big East Talk Might Be a Waste Also
I have that term copyrighted. :wideeyed:
I don't think Big East is gone. Two reasons. First, I think ACC is not going to expand nor lose any teams. They don't care about keeping up with the Jones. Second, ECU and UCF are BCS schools in waiting. They are not small schools. ECU has a large stadium and their attendance is bigger than Duke And Wake Forest combined. UCF has the largest undergrad enrollment of any campus in the country and is in a recruiting hotbed. They would become members in a second. Also, Big East has both Texas and Florida markets and I don't expect that to change because USF and TCU would not be expansion targets for Big Ten or SEC.
I have that term copyrighted. :wideeyed:
I don't think Big East is gone. Two reasons. First, I think ACC is not going to expand nor lose any teams. They don't care about keeping up with the Jones. Second, ECU and UCF are BCS schools in waiting. They are not small schools. ECU has a large stadium and their attendance is bigger than Duke And Wake Forest combined. UCF has the largest undergrad enrollment of any campus in the country and is in a recruiting hotbed. They would become members in a second. Also, Big East has both Texas and Florida markets and I don't expect that to change because USF and TCU would not be expansion targets for Big Ten or SEC.
Pots of Gold?
I think the natural thought process is each new TV deal is going to be a pot of gold. I'm don't believe that is a sure thing. Last time I looked the TV networks aren't in the money printing business. I think there will be winners and loser in the TV negotiations over the next 3 - 5 years.
I also think that for every $ that ESPN is willing to invest with individual schools like the Longhorns, BYU, ND, etc it takes away from money it will spend on conferences. In the case of the Big 12's next TV deal in 2016- how could the Big 12 have negotiated the "best" deal for the conference, when Texas (one of the crown jewels) has already got their own deal.
I think the natural thought process is each new TV deal is going to be a pot of gold. I'm don't believe that is a sure thing. Last time I looked the TV networks aren't in the money printing business. I think there will be winners and loser in the TV negotiations over the next 3 - 5 years.
I also think that for every $ that ESPN is willing to invest with individual schools like the Longhorns, BYU, ND, etc it takes away from money it will spend on conferences. In the case of the Big 12's next TV deal in 2016- how could the Big 12 have negotiated the "best" deal for the conference, when Texas (one of the crown jewels) has already got their own deal.
The Big East is going nowhere...the Big East as we know it today may be going somewhere but the conference as a whole will be solid with the addition of Big 12 leftovers on top of cherry picking UCF and UEC and the like. I know it's far from a done deal by I'm really thinking a move out east would be a great thing for ISU. Of course ISU leadership (AD/President) will bemoan the loss of revenue because their paychecks come from that revenue but from a comptetive/win/loss/fan enjoyment standpoint it's actually pretty exciting in both football and BB.
The ACC Doesn't Have a Choice
I don't think any conference can sit on the sidelines. You can't tell me that the SEC or Big 10 wouldn't drool over adding schools like UNC, VA, MD, etc.
I do think the ACC will survive, because I think it complements the SEC- but I see the ACC adding schools like Syracuse, Pitt, UConn and Louisville. Today BC is a lone wolf as the only NE school in the ACC and I think the ACC moves to strengthen their TV footprint in that highly populated area.
I don't think any conference can sit on the sidelines. You can't tell me that the SEC or Big 10 wouldn't drool over adding schools like UNC, VA, MD, etc.
I do think the ACC will survive, because I think it complements the SEC- but I see the ACC adding schools like Syracuse, Pitt, UConn and Louisville. Today BC is a lone wolf as the only NE school in the ACC and I think the ACC moves to strengthen their TV footprint in that highly populated area.
Completely disagree. I get excited about watching Texas, Tech, ATM, Mizzou and OU come into JTS. Rutgers, UCONN, S. Florida, Cinci? No thanks.
