GMac Era By the Numbers
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Compare these numbers to Mike Anderson's three and a half years at Mizzou and it would make you want to jump off a bridge. The worst part is they seemed like comparable hires at the time.
The fact that Anderson is currently getting more out of a bare cupboard year than McD is in a stars aligning year makes me sick to my stomach.
The fact that Anderson is currently getting more out of a bare cupboard year than McD is in a stars aligning year makes me sick to my stomach.
So our non-conference records are 9-5, 10-5, 11-4, 11-4. Most agreed at the beginning of the year that this was his toughest non-conference schedule so far. It may yet play out that way. Looks to me like maybe we could give Mac a little more rope. I don't think he's hung himself just yet.
My suggestion is that if you are sick to your stomach then...Go to the bathroom and PUKE YOUR GUTS OUT!!!!!:yes:
Talked to my bro-in-law and he confirms that McDud is a real DUD!!!!:biglaugh:
I disagree with this fully for the most part.
Sure, you can't directly apply if A > B and B > C then A > C in basketball. However, you can make inferences about a team. Every team has its weakness in which defenses it doesn't play well against. There's always one game that is the exception. For example 2004-05's championship North Carolina basketball team lost to Santa Clara in its first game by 11. They might not have matched up well against SC's defense.
HOWEVER, when you look at a team and you constantly see those types of games, not just one or even two, you can make huge inferences about the team. When I see NDSU beating Dickinson State at home by only 7, not even a Division 1 basketball team, or Utah Valley who is independent because they just joined Division 1.......all losses to low conference teams....and then ISU can barely beat them at home as ISU is in a power conference...it tells me something. Well, one it could mean we don't match up with NDSU well, or two the fact we've played like this the last month or so (exception is Duke to be honest) tells me it's more than "we don't match up well."
We need to make adjustments. There's no reason this team should be underperforming like this
Wow......what hits me the most is only 15 wins against teams that finished the season with a winning record. 15 wins in 3 years! That is not good at any level, no matter which school's team you coach.
Not exactly accurate. Texas A&M has played Texas, Florida State, Oregon State, Houston, Texas Tech, and Mississippi and others. A little tougher than NDSU I would say. They lost to Texas Tech by y early in the season. They beat Oregon State, which is not saying a lot, but still it is a major conference team. Texas coach also called their 6 point win "a huge step backward". What did GMac say about a two point win over NDSU? "We lacked a lot of things. We were just lucky we had Charles Boozer on our team and they didn't. He saved us!" Great insight coach!
That's what surprised me too...here's the breakdown of that too..games we won where the team ended up with a winning record
06-07
UL-Monroe (18-14), North Dakota State (20-8), Missouri (18-12), Nebraska (2x..17-14), Oklahoma (16-15)
07-08
Purdue (25-9), Oklahoma State (17-16), Nebraska (20-13)
08-09
Milwaukee (17-14), Northern Iowa (23-11), Houston (21-12), Mercer (17-15), Nebraska (18-13), Baylor (24-15)
Overall (over 3 years)
Average record over those three seasons of opponents: 19.4 - 12.9
If you take away only TWO of our marquee wins which would be Purdue and Baylor from last year...
the average record goes to: 18.5 - 13.1
Avg opponent record from power conference teams: 19.4 - 12.3
Avg opponent record from power conference excluding Purdue and Baylor games: 17.7 - 13.8
06-07 to 07-08 Averages
Average opponent record : 18.9 - 12.6
Average record excluding Purdue: 18 - 13.1
Avg opponent record from power conference teams: 18.8 - 13.2
Avg opponent record from power conference excluding Purdue: 17.6 - 14
07-08 to 08-09 Averages
Average opponent record: 20.2 - 13.1
Average record excluding Purdue and Baylor: 19 - 13.4
Avg opponent record from power conference teams: 20.8 - 13.2
Avg opponent record from power conference excluding Purdue and Baylor: 18.3 - 14
The reason I computed some statistics without the Purdue and Baylor wins is because the cardinality of this set (the size) is so low, that those games greatly inflate the averages. Just look at the last statistics...the average wins went down by almost 2.5 games when taking out those TWO games.
NDSU's 06-07 is a little inflated too..this was a year they were transitioning to D1 and were in the "independent" league. That record includes playing 3 less than D1 teams, plus 12 of those games were against their "conference" opponents in IPFW, Utah Valley, Texas-Pan American, NJIT, South Dakota State, and Winston Salem. They were good that year still..
Also 06-07 a number of wins we had were basically all because of Mike Taylor (i.e. the Minnesota game we won by 5 where MN ended up 9-22 that year).
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Simply put McDermott hasn't won a "big" game at ISU yet. Johnny Orr was the master of protecting the home court during the conference season (including beating highly ranked teams at Hilton) and sneaking into the NCAA tourney. We need that again. We must win at LEAST six of 8 conference games a year every year at home to even have a chance of going to the NCAA tourney. McDermott almost beat KU at home a few years ago, almost beat Texas a couple of years ago, and almost beat Oklahoma at home last year. We need to get over the hump this year and knock off either Texas or Kansas in Ames.
Here is the only number that matters to me: 0.
That is, 0 NCAA tourney appearances.
Who is the last ISU coach to go 4 years with 0 NCAA tourney appearances, and what year was that?
ISU is no powerhouse, but they are a school that should get to the NCAA tourney more than 1 in 4.
That is, 0 NCAA tourney appearances.
Who is the last ISU coach to go 4 years with 0 NCAA tourney appearances, and what year was that?
ISU is no powerhouse, but they are a school that should get to the NCAA tourney more than 1 in 4.
McDermott's two biggest wins were against Purdue in 07-08 who was a 6 seed in the 2008 tournament and lost in the 2nd round to Xavier and then against Baylor last year who lost to Penn State in the NIT championship game. We also beat UNI last year who was a 12 seed and lost in the first round to Purdue.
Baylor is actually misleading. They ended up 24-15 last year, but they finished the regular season 17-13. If you look at the Big 12 tournament and NIT, they went 7-2.
We have won exactly 2 games in the last 3 years against teams who made the tournament.
Then you literally know nothing.
You have clearly given up on this team, and that is a complete shame and a sign of a very poor fan.
Also, 0 NIT appearances. 0 CBI appearances.
A more relevant question would be about post season, not just NCAA tournament. Johnny Orr took us to our first NCAA tournament since 1944 in his fifth season, BUT we went to the NIT the year before.
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Since we are talking so many numbers, and key wins.......here is something more to chew on......and something that seems to get forgotten:
The previous coach who got fired for whatever reason (Wayne Morgan) beat Kansas twice and beat Texas twice, when both teams were ranked in the top 25. Also, in his 3 years, he had a 9-11 record against teams ranked in the top 25. GMac can't even sniff that success here or anywhere he has been, yet Morgan lost his job.
I don't believe Morgan was a strong in-game coach, but sometimes you don't need to be if you get the strong recruits. There are a lot of coaches out there who can recruit better than they can coach, and have great winning success. There are also coaches out there who can recruit talent, but then have no idea what to do with it (I won't mention any names).
Sometimes all it takes is to recruit a player who can be a strong leader, almost a coach on the floor (Tinsley, Fizer, Blalock, Stinson)
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Yep, just for a point of reference, here's during the Morgan years..games we won against a team who ended up with a winning record
03-04
UNI (21-10) NCAA tournament
Xavier (26-11) NCAA tournament(Elite 8)
Missouri (16-14) NIT
Nebraska (18-13) NIT
Iowa (16-13) NIT
Kansas (24-9) NCAA tournament (Elite 8)
Texas (25-8) NCAA tournament (Sweet 16)
Colorado (18-11) NIT
NIT against Georgia (16-14)
NIT against Florida State (19-14)
NIT against Marquette (19-12)
04-05
Bucknell (23-10) NCAA tournament
Oklahoma (25-8) NCAA tournament
Texas (20-11) NCAA tournament
Kansas (23-7) NCAA tournament
Texas Tech (22-11) NCAA tournament
Kansas State (17-12)
NCAAA tournament against Minnesota (21-11) NCAA tournament
05-06
Northern Iowa (23-10) NCAA tournament
Iowa (25-9) NCAA tournament
Northwestern State (26-8) NCAA tournament
Colorado State (16-15)
Kansas State (15-13)
Nebraska (19-14)
Colorado (20-10) NIT
Oklahoma State (17-16)
That is 26 wins against teams with winning records in the Morgan era to McDermott's 15. A major difference is that 13 of those wins were against teams who made the NCAA tournament that year, and 8 of those wins were against teams who made the NIT. Meaning only 5 of those wins were against teams who didn't make a post season tournament. I believe in the McDermott era, only 2 or 3 of the 15 wins were against teams who ended up making either the NIT or the NCAA Tournament.
20 of those wins were against teams in power conferences too and the average record of every team in this? 20.4 - 11.3
Average record of opponents who made a post season tournament? 21.2 - 10.7
And of course, we went deep in the NIT final four AND the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament in three seasons and never had a losing record. It's kind of important to note even in two of the three years Morgan was here, he had at least half as many wins against winning teams as GMac has had in his first three years total. Not only that, but the one year that wasn't at least half, was 1/2 game less than what would be half.
Oh, and if you want to talk this "Wayne Morgan" had more talent ********, just looking at the recruiting alone of Wayne Morgan years vs. McDermott. I'm looking at the Rivals rankings and their Top150 from each year. These are for players who actually played at least one game for us.
Wayne Morgan
4 stars - 3
3 stars - 8
2 stars - 3
0 stars - 1
Top 50
Shawn Taggart (35th) - 4 star
Top 75
Will Blalock (74th) - 4 star
Rahshon Clark (67th) - 4 star
Top 150
Curtis Stinson (127th) - 3 star
Greg McDermott
5 stars - 1
4 stars - 1
3 stars - 13
2 stars - 4
0 stars - 2
Top 25
Craig Brackins (20th) - 5 star
Top 100
Chris Colvin (99th) - 4 star
Top 150
Diante Garrett (123rd) - 3 star
Okay, so in the Greg McDermott era, the average star rating of players is 2.95 and for Wayne Morgan it was 3.0 on the dot. McDermott recruited 3 players on the Rivals150 list, although maybe 4 since Dendy was #74 before going to JUCO and also Gilstrap is in the top 25 for ESPN's ratings. You could easily put that number to 5.
Not only that, but Greg McDermott has recruited two potential NBA lottery picks in Wesley Johnson and Craig Brackins (although Brackins now isn't a lottery pick)..so let's say two first round draft picks at this point. Also he recruited Gilstrap, who many believe will be drafted somewhere in the draft and some scouts will tell you late 1st. So that number could even be 3 first rounders.
Average Rivals150 rankings of players Morgan recruited was 75.75 and for McDermott it has been 80.67. That's not much of a difference.
I really don't buy into the "Wayne Morgan had more talent around him" and all this ****..maybe for the first year he did, but the other years? No, sorry it's about even in my humble opinion.
Wayne Morgan
4 stars - 3
3 stars - 8
2 stars - 3
0 stars - 1
Top 50
Shawn Taggart (35th) - 4 star
Top 75
Will Blalock (74th) - 4 star
Rahshon Clark (67th) - 4 star
Top 150
Curtis Stinson (127th) - 3 star
Greg McDermott
5 stars - 1
4 stars - 1
3 stars - 13
2 stars - 4
0 stars - 2
Top 25
Craig Brackins (20th) - 5 star
Top 100
Chris Colvin (99th) - 4 star
Top 150
Diante Garrett (123rd) - 3 star
Okay, so in the Greg McDermott era, the average star rating of players is 2.95 and for Wayne Morgan it was 3.0 on the dot. McDermott recruited 3 players on the Rivals150 list, although maybe 4 since Dendy was #74 before going to JUCO and also Gilstrap is in the top 25 for ESPN's ratings. You could easily put that number to 5.
Not only that, but Greg McDermott has recruited two potential NBA lottery picks in Wesley Johnson and Craig Brackins (although Brackins now isn't a lottery pick)..so let's say two first round draft picks at this point. Also he recruited Gilstrap, who many believe will be drafted somewhere in the draft and some scouts will tell you late 1st. So that number could even be 3 first rounders.
Average Rivals150 rankings of players Morgan recruited was 75.75 and for McDermott it has been 80.67. That's not much of a difference.
I really don't buy into the "Wayne Morgan had more talent around him" and all this ****..maybe for the first year he did, but the other years? No, sorry it's about even in my humble opinion.
:notworthy::notworthy: Thanks for making this, must of taken forever.
Average in games where opponent has winning record: 15 - 44
FAIL.
Average in games where opponent has winning record: 15 - 44
FAIL.
Why do I feel like we will get to the the Fiesta Bowl before we get to the NCAA tourney again?
And all this "Star Rating Talk" Get me a 1 star from anywhere that can box out and play help out defense.
I predicted a few weeks ago we will start 0-5 in conference. I think I might be right on that. Of course I would love to be wrong. Our guys have to really circle the wagaons and prove people wrong. Play with some passion and like every game is an elimination game (b/c it almost is)
And all this "Star Rating Talk" Get me a 1 star from anywhere that can box out and play help out defense.
I predicted a few weeks ago we will start 0-5 in conference. I think I might be right on that. Of course I would love to be wrong. Our guys have to really circle the wagaons and prove people wrong. Play with some passion and like every game is an elimination game (b/c it almost is)
