2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[KennyPratt42]

For anyone watching Tennessee's NCAA tournament games this week, take note that they had one of their best offensive games of the season against Virginia (and a slightly below average defensive game) and one of their best defensive games of the season against Miami (OH) (and an average offensive game).





But maybe the most interesting thing is that they have been remarkably consistent this year. A standard deviation of 8.4 for defensive efficiency is really low. As two comps, Arizona is 9.9 and Houston is 10.4 which were the next two lowest I found when quickly looking.

 

[SolarGarlic]

For anyone watching Tennessee's NCAA tournament games this week, take note that they had one of their best offensive games of the season against Virginia (and a slightly below average defensive game) and one of their best defensive games of the season against Miami (OH) (and an average offensive game).

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But maybe the most interesting thing is that they have been remarkably consistent this year. A standard deviation of 8.4 for defensive efficiency is really low. As two comps, Arizona is 9.9 and Houston is 10.4 which were the next two lowest I found when quickly looking.

Gillespie is on a heater currently, but he's very streaky. Hopefully a new building and ISU defense gets him out of his current rhythm. Boswell had the best shooting game of his season vs. Virginia. But I continue to feel this is a good matchup. Gillespie is small and may have trouble finding the skip pass that kills our defense. Boswell is a turnover machine. Ament is hobbled. I'm feeling confident, which never ends well.

 

[RagingCloner]

Gillespie is on a heater currently, but he's very streaky. Hopefully a new building and ISU defense gets him out of his current rhythm. Boswell had the best shooting game of his season vs. Virginia. But I continue to feel this is a good matchup. Gillespie is small and may have trouble finding the skip pass that kills our defense. Boswell is a turnover machine. Ament is hobbled. I'm feeling confident, which never ends well.

the confidence i have in this game is what is terrifying me as well

 

[bawbie]

I tend to look at Torvic games scores a lot to see how teams are trending and if teams tend to play better or worse against certain types of teams. It’s not a perfect stat, but does a decent job distilling down how a team performed in a game.

Iowa St now has 22 games with a game score of 96 or higher. For me a 99 or 100 for a top team means you played about was well as you can for a significant portion of the game and 96-98 means means you likely played about as well as you can for a decent percentage of the game, but might have had an average or bad stretch. 90-95 means you played well, but weren’t at your very best for the game as a whole.

By my quick count. Duke has 26, Arizona and Michigan each have 24, Florida has 22, Purdue has 21, Houston has 20, Illinois has 20, and UConn has 19. The thing that separates a team like Arizona is that their floor is so high even compared to a team like Duke, their low score of the season is an 85.

I thought it was notable that Tennessee has no games lower than 70, and only 3 below 82 (@Syracuse, @Florida, @Vandy)

they've been quite consistent. in fact, since mid-Jan they only have two games below 90.

 

[Cyclonepride]

This is impressive

 

[Letterkenny]

This is impressive

Even more impressive because we don't really play at a slow pace that limits posessions.

 

[KennyPratt42]

Gillespie is on a heater currently, but he's very streaky. Hopefully a new building and ISU defense gets him out of his current rhythm. Boswell had the best shooting game of his season vs. Virginia. But I continue to feel this is a good matchup. Gillespie is small and may have trouble finding the skip pass that kills our defense. Boswell is a turnover machine. Ament is hobbled. I'm feeling confident, which never ends well.

Boswell put up by far his most 3's of the season, but going 4 of 9 isn't that far off from his season 3pt % (39.4%). Gillespie is going to put up a ton of shots and can win them games but also shoot them out of games. One of the keys for us is if Toure, Lipsey, Batemon, and Heise can turn Gillespie over and also force him into bad shots.

I also wouldn't necessarily call Boswell a turnover machine, he averages 1.6 per game which is similar to Toure at 1.7 and Lipsey at 1.5 (although Lipsey does play a handful more minutes per game than those two). Both Ament and Gillespie turn it over at a fairly high rate, 2.3 turnovers per game.

 

[alexssdean12]

I thought it was notable that Tennessee has no games lower than 70, and only 3 below 82 (@Syracuse, @Florida, @Vandy)

they've been quite consistent. in fact, since mid-Jan they only have two games below 90.

Iowa State has a higher ceiling vs Tennessee has a lower floor. If both teams play their best I'm taking Iowa State, if they game gets real messy and a bad scoring night for Iowa State probably leans more Tennessee

 

[KennyPratt42]

Iowa State has a higher ceiling vs Tennessee has a lower floor. If both teams play their best I'm taking Iowa State, if they game gets real messy and a bad scoring night for Iowa State probably leans more Tennessee

I think you mean Tennessee has a higher floor. But I agree completely, if we play really well Tennessee will be able to keep it respectable but we should win. If they can get it in a kind of ugly half court game it will be really tough for us (not impossible because of our defense, but tough).

 

[alexssdean12]

I think you mean Tennessee has a higher floor. But I agree completely, if we play really well Tennessee will be able to keep it respectable but we should win. If they can get it in a kind of ugly half court game it will be really tough for us (not impossible because of our defense, but tough).

Yep that's what I meant lol.

If we have a game like TCU, Cincinnati, or @Kansas I don't see how we win. But if we play like we did against Tech or Arizona in those loses I see us coming away with the win

 

[bawbie]

Gillespie is on a heater currently, but he's very streaky. Hopefully a new building and ISU defense gets him out of his current rhythm. Boswell had the best shooting game of his season vs. Virginia. But I continue to feel this is a good matchup. Gillespie is small and may have trouble finding the skip pass that kills our defense. Boswell is a turnover machine. Ament is hobbled. I'm feeling confident, which never ends well.

I think he's comparable to Christian Anderson from TTU. Actually, very comparable. Anderson is a couple inches taller and averages a couple more assists a game, but they take a similar number of 3s, 2s and FTs a game - Gillespie takes a couple more 2s, and Anderson shoots a bit better (41% vs 34%) from deep.

One thing about Gillespie is that he's struggled on 2-pt shots, Anderson was 59% on 2pters, Gillespie was 48%, and only 42% against top 50 competition. He shot 58% at the rim and 34% on other 2pt shots.

Anderson was 4-14 from 3 with 10 assists and 7 turnovers in the two games against us in the last month. Obviously those games had different outcomes, but he didn't play great in either.

 

[SolarGarlic]

Boswell put up by far his most 3's of the season, but going 4 of 9 isn't that far off from his season 3pt % (39.4%). Gillespie is going to put up a ton of shots and can win them games but also shoot them out of games. One of the keys for us is if Toure, Lipsey, Batemon, and Heise can turn Gillespie over and also force him into bad shots.

I also wouldn't necessarily call Boswell a turnover machine, he averages 1.6 per game which is similar to Toure at 1.7 and Lipsey at 1.5 (although Lipsey does play a handful more minutes per game than those two). Both Ament and Gillespie turn it over at a fairly high rate, 2.3 turnovers per game.

Toure does have TO issues with a TO rate of 20.2. Boswell has a TO rate of 24.6. His usage rate is only 14.6%, so he doesn't handle it a lot but he will turn it over when he does. For reference, Jefferson has a TO rate of 16.7 on a 28.9% usage rate, and a lot of our fans consider him a liability in that regard.

What your numbers tell me is that Gillespie and Ament are ball dominant, and obviously, Gillespie is really the straw that stirs the drink.

 

[KennyPratt42]

Toure does have TO issues with a TO rate of 20.2. Boswell has a TO rate of 24.6. His usage rate is only 14.6%, so he doesn't handle it a lot but he will turn it over when he does. For reference, Jefferson has a TO rate of 16.7 on a 28.9% usage rate, and a lot of our fans consider him a liability in that regard.

That's fair and lines up with the little bit I've watched of them, Boswell doesn't have it in his hands a lot. Toure was the comp I had in my mind for him in regards to turnovers, but Boswell might be a little worse. What are Ament and Gillespie's TO and usage rates?

 

[SolarGarlic]

That's fair and lines up with the little bit I've watched of them, Boswell doesn't have it in his hands a lot. Toure was the comp I had in my mind for him in regards to turnovers, but Boswell might be a little worse. What are Ament and Gillespie's TO and usage rates?

Gillespie 25.9% usage rate with 15.2 TO rate
Ament 28.1% usage rate with 16.3 TO rate

 

[not-the-manager]

I think he's comparable to Christian Anderson from TTU. Actually, very comparable. Anderson is a couple inches taller and averages a couple more assists a game, but they take a similar number of 3s, 2s and FTs a game - Gillespie takes a couple more 2s, and Anderson shoots a bit better (41% vs 34%) from deep.

One thing about Gillespie is that he's struggled on 2-pt shots, Anderson was 59% on 2pters, Gillespie was 48%, and only 42% against top 50 competition. He shot 58% at the rim and 34% on other 2pt shots.

Anderson was 4-14 from 3 with 10 assists and 7 turnovers in the two games against us in the last month. Obviously those games had different outcomes, but he didn't play great in either.

That gives me hope. Anderson shoots 2s, 3s, and passes out of traps well, which often spells doom for Iowa State's defense. It's sounding to me like Gillespie is more of an Oweh than an Anderson or Saunders

 

[KennyPratt42]

Gillespie 25.9% usage rate with 15.2 TO rate
Ament 28.1% usage rate with 16.3 TO rate

That would have been my guess, something similar to Jefferson for both.

 

[SolarGarlic]

That gives me hope. Anderson shoots 2s, 3s, and passes out of traps well, which often spells doom for Iowa State's defense. It's sounding to me like Gillespie is more of an Oweh than an Anderson or Saunders

Gillespie is a much better passer than Oweh. He's a true combo guard that runs the show.

 

[not-the-manager]

Gillespie is a much better passer than Oweh. He's a true combo guard that runs the show.

Fair enough, but I'll roll the dice with Toure against anyone who doesn't regularly hit tough shots like Bradley or Anderson. A team that can repeatedly nail backbreakers is the worst matchup for Iowa State

 

[CascadeClone]

Fair enough, but I'll roll the dice with Toure against anyone who doesn't regularly hit tough shots like Bradley or Anderson. A team that can repeatedly nail backbreakers is the worst matchup for Iowa State

Don't forget all those trees inside they have to rebound misses. I think I am more worried about that.

We need TURNOVERS so that we don't get outshot by 10. And if no JJ, they will need to hit 3s at a good rate

Basically, they need a repeat of the KY game. And even if they do, it will be a lot closer, because Tenn won't give up with 12 minutes left.

 

[Letterkenny]

Iowa State has a higher ceiling vs Tennessee has a lower floor. If both teams play their best I'm taking Iowa State, if they game gets real messy and a bad scoring night for Iowa State probably leans more Tennessee

Tennessee did lose to Syracuse. That's a far worse loss than anything we have. Their Missouri loss is worse than any of ours too. Cincinnati was basically a bubble team.