2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Just gonna throw this out there but most of the "conference tournament result's don't really matter talk" were made with the assumption Iowa State would have the double bye. The bracket will be all but wrapped up on Friday but we could potentially have the opportunity to pick up a high quality win against Tech on Thursday. I do think that data point will be considered if that scenario played out.

 

[qwerty]

I didn't know if Sig was going to do these post regular season, so I will just post this one and let him take it from there.

 

[WastedTalent]

Just gonna throw this out there but most of the "conference tournament result's don't really matter talk" were made with the assumption Iowa State would have the double bye. The bracket will be all but wrapped up on Friday but we could potentially have the opportunity to pick up a high quality win against Tech on Thursday. I do think that data point will be considered if that scenario played out.

Not sure that's a good enough win to jump anybody. Only small chance is if Michigan St or Illinois lose first round. And those games will be Friday night, and would be losses to Wisconsin or UCLA. Again, probably not bad enough losses.

Looks to me like Iowa St is locked into a 3 seed. Depends how the ASU/Baylor game goes, if it's the top 3 seed or not.

 

[Urbandale2013]

Can anyone explain to me how Illinois or Michigan State would be ahead of us? I feel like our resume is solidly better than either of them

 

[CycloneEggie]

UIC isn't getting an at large bid. Not with that resume

I posted this while the MVC Championship was going on. Now that UNI won, I'm wondering the likelihood that UNI ends up as our 1st round opponent. Brent Blum discussed this a little on the podcast. They are trying to minimize travel. Sounds like we think they will be slotted in about 13 or 14 range... a 3 vs 14 seems possible, but maybe unlikely. Blum also mentioned how Iowa could be a 10 in the same side of the bracket as us if we end up a 2. I hate these possibilities.

 

[Chitowncy]

Not sure that's a good enough win to jump anybody. Only small chance is if Michigan St or Illinois lose first round. And those games will be Friday night, and would be losses to Wisconsin or UCLA. Again, probably not bad enough losses.

Looks to me like Iowa St is locked into a 3 seed. Depends how the ASU/Baylor game goes, if it's the top 3 seed or not.

I'd guess we're locked into at worst a 3 seed, but the two seed battle is completely up in the air between Illinois, MSU and ISU. There's 2 2 seed spots and 3 teams.

 

[Jkclone15]

Can anyone explain to me how Illinois or Michigan State would be ahead of us? I feel like our resume is solidly better than either of them

I think the Cyclones should be ahead of both.

The argument for Illinois is better metrics, especially offense.

MSU's Q1 record is 9-6, ours is 6-6.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Can anyone explain to me how Illinois or Michigan State would be ahead of us? I feel like our resume is solidly better than either of them

It can only be explained if you completely throw out the committee's seeding that was released. We were at 4, Illinois at 8 and Michigan State at 14.

Since that day:

ISU lost @ BYU (ranked), Texas Tech (ranked) and @ Arizona (ranked) and won two games against Utah and ASU.

Illinois lost @UCLA, @ Michigan and beat Oregon and Maryland

Michigan State lost @ Michigan and beat OSU, @Purdue, @ Indiana and Rutgers

Basically, Illinois has done nothing impressive at all to gain 4 spots on us and Michigan State has one impressive win (@Purdue) with admittedly two games better record but that's supposed to jump them 10 spots?

Personally, I think the strength of the Big 12 is enough that this conference deserves a 1 seed (Arizona) and two 2 seeds (Houston, ISU) and two 3 seeds (, KU, Texas Tech) while the Big Ten deserves one 1 seed (Michigan), one 2 seed (Illinois) and three 3 seeds (Michigan State, Nebraska and Purdue).

I think that's a very fair distribution based on relative conference strength since we didn't have the benefit of playing against the bottom of the Big Ten, which has 5 teams with losing records (the Big 12 only has 2).

 

[CycloneEggie]

It can only be explained if you completely throw out the committee's seeding that was released. We were at 4, Illinois at 8 and Michigan State at 14.

Since that day:

ISU lost @ BYU (ranked), Texas Tech (ranked) and @ Arizona (ranked) and won two games against Utah and ASU.

Illinois lost @UCLA, @ Michigan and beat Oregon and Maryland

Michigan State lost @ Michigan and beat OSU, @Purdue, @ Indiana and Rutgers

Basically, Illinois has done nothing impressive at all to gain 4 spots on us and Michigan State has one impressive win (@Purdue) with admittedly two games better record but that's supposed to jump them 10 spots?

Personally, I think the strength of the Big 12 is enough that this conference deserves a 1 seed (Arizona) and two 2 seeds (Houston, ISU) and one 3 seed (Texas Tech) while the Big Ten deserves one 1 seed (Michigan), one 2 seed (Illinois) and two three seeds (Michigan State and Purdue).

I think that's a very fair distribution based on relative conference strength since we didn't have the benefit of playing against the bottom of the Big Ten, which has 5 teams with losing records (the Big 12 only has 2).

Nebraska is going to get a 2 or 3 seed as well.

 

[NENick]

It can only be explained if you completely throw out the committee's seeding that was released. We were at 4, Illinois at 8 and Michigan State at 14.

Since that day:

ISU lost @ BYU (ranked), Texas Tech (ranked) and @ Arizona (ranked) and won two games against Utah and ASU.

Illinois lost @UCLA, @ Michigan and beat Oregon and Maryland

Michigan State lost @ Michigan and beat OSU, @Purdue, @ Indiana and Rutgers

Basically, Illinois has done nothing impressive at all to gain 4 spots on us and Michigan State has one impressive win (@Purdue) with admittedly two games better record but that's supposed to jump them 10 spots?

Personally, I think the strength of the Big 12 is enough that this conference deserves a 1 seed (Arizona) and two 2 seeds (Houston, ISU) and one 3 seed (Texas Tech) while the Big Ten deserves one 1 seed (Michigan), one 2 seed (Illinois) and two three seeds (Michigan State and Purdue).

I think that's a very fair distribution based on relative conference strength since we didn't have the benefit of playing against the bottom of the Big Ten, which has 5 teams with losing records (the Big 12 only has 2).

You forgot Kansas. I'm guessing them and TTech are both in the 3/4-seed discussion.

 

[Cyclonepride]

You forgot Kansas. I'm guessing them and TTech are both in the 3/4-seed discussion.

They're forgettable this year lol. Yes, I agree.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Nebraska is going to get a 2 or 3 seed as well.

It's Monday morning guys, leave me alone

 

[NYCYFan]

I continue to be baffled at the love Gonzaga gets from the net rankings. They've had one quality win in almost 3 months and that was St. Mary's at home. Their quality wins are UCLA and Kentucky who are barely above mediocre and Alabama. That's it, that's their resume. They should be closer to 15 in the net rankings than 6.

 

[NYCYFan]

Can anyone explain to me how Illinois or Michigan State would be ahead of us? I feel like our resume is solidly better than either of them

Michigan State has 3 more Quad 1 wins, neither team has any really bad losses. They probably deserve to be ahead of Iowa State if we're being honest.

 

[Urbandale2013]

Michigan State has 3 more Quad 1 wins, neither team has any really bad losses. They probably deserve to be ahead of Iowa State if we're being honest.

They have 4 resume wins. Arkansas, "N" North Carolina, Illinois, and @Purdue. We have 4 resume wins. "N" St Johns, @Purdue, Kansas, and Houston. Our worst loss is to bubble team Cincinnati or TCU who is solidly in. Their worst loss is to Minnesota who isn't even really close to a bubble team.

As others said we were the 4th overall seed. Michigan State was the 14th overall seed. We should move down some and they should have moved up some, but I don't see how the records support Michigan State over us.

 

[SolarGarlic]

It can only be explained if you completely throw out the committee's seeding that was released. We were at 4, Illinois at 8 and Michigan State at 14.

Since that day:

ISU lost @ BYU (ranked), Texas Tech (ranked) and @ Arizona (ranked) and won two games against Utah and ASU.

Illinois lost @UCLA, @ Michigan and beat Oregon and Maryland

Michigan State lost @ Michigan and beat OSU, @Purdue, @ Indiana and Rutgers

Basically, Illinois has done nothing impressive at all to gain 4 spots on us and Michigan State has one impressive win (@Purdue) with admittedly two games better record but that's supposed to jump them 10 spots?

Personally, I think the strength of the Big 12 is enough that this conference deserves a 1 seed (Arizona) and two 2 seeds (Houston, ISU) and two 3 seeds (, KU, Texas Tech) while the Big Ten deserves one 1 seed (Michigan), one 2 seed (Illinois) and three 3 seeds (Michigan State, Nebraska and Purdue).

I think that's a very fair distribution based on relative conference strength since we didn't have the benefit of playing against the bottom of the Big Ten, which has 5 teams with losing records (the Big 12 only has 2).

Yeah it feels like most fans and analysts have completely thrown out what the committee told us and are basically going by their preferred bracketologist/s. The truth is we have no clue other than what they told us 2 weeks ago, and the committee almost always has multiple teams on different seed lines than the consensus going into the weekend.

 

[FerShizzle]

I would be okay with TJ converting a couple strategically placed Q4 buy games to Q3. It would help the SOS that is pretty glaring at this point. It would also give the team a bit more of a challenge in the early season.

Extend an olive branch to UNI or Drake for a buy game or a home/neutral/home series.

Or maybe one of the other MVC schools in a neighboring state.

TJs teams are typically rolling early so I don’t worry about a let down as much as previous coaches.

 

[NYCYFan]

They have 4 resume wins. Arkansas, "N" North Carolina, Illinois, and @Purdue. We have 4 resume wins. "N" St Johns, @Purdue, Kansas, and Houston. Our worst loss is to bubble team Cincinnati or TCU who is solidly in. Their worst loss is to Minnesota who isn't even really close to a bubble team.

As others said we were the 4th overall seed. Michigan State was the 14th overall seed. We should move down some and they should have moved up some, but I don't see how the records support Michigan State over us.

Their rankings during the reveal is a legit argument in favor of Iowa State, I forgot that Michigan State was ranked so low, so in that sense you're right but if you look at the meat of their resumes which is mainly Quad 1 wins and strength of schedule (since their records are fairly similar), Michigan State has an edge. Also, if we're to look at eye test, Iowa State has struggled a lot since the bracket reveal whereas Michigan State has looked pretty strong. Is the spread between their play since the bracket reveal which IMO has been a significant spread enough to account for 10 spots difference in the rankings? Maybe, tough to know really.

The one argument in favor of Iowa State is their reveal rankings and it could be a big one so we'll see. I just think the overall resume of Michigan State is a little stronger and they certainly at the least have an argument for jumping Iowa State.

 

[not-the-manager]

Nebraska is going to get a 2 or 3 seed as well.

Nebraska getting Q1 wins out of Minnesota, Northwestern, and Indiana makes me want to abolish the NET. Their fans certainly think a 2 is in play, but I don't see them beating Purdue and Michigan State

Can anyone explain to me how Illinois or Michigan State would be ahead of us? I feel like our resume is solidly better than either of them

They have 4 resume wins. Arkansas, "N" North Carolina, Illinois, and @Purdue. We have 4 resume wins. "N" St Johns, @Purdue, Kansas, and Houston. Our worst loss is to bubble team Cincinnati or TCU who is solidly in. Their worst loss is to Minnesota who isn't even really close to a bubble team.

As others said we were the 4th overall seed. Michigan State was the 14th overall seed. We should move down some and they should have moved up some, but I don't see how the records support Michigan State over us.

We don't have to like it but Bracket Matrix is telling us Michigan State would likely be ahead of Iowa State as of today. I agree with @NYCYFan , the bracket people I've seen have cited Q1 record—specifically Q1A—as the knock against Iowa State relative to the teams on the 2 and 3 lines. Illinois is the only 2 Iowa State could catch at this point, I think. They have one more Q1 win, and maybe people are valuing SOS, but Iowa State is ahead in SOR and WAB. I think we're big Wisconsin fans this week. If they stay hot and can beat Illinois Friday that could be enough, though we're talking about such tiny differences at this point. Illinois' home win over Tech also makes me wonder if that's the difference right now. I doubt it, but it makes me wonder. It is nice that Iowa State might play Tech on Thursday vs. Friday, as @BillBrasky4Cy said

 

[Letterkenny]

I posted this while the MVC Championship was going on. Now that UNI won, I'm wondering the likelihood that UNI ends up as our 1st round opponent. Brent Blum discussed this a little on the podcast. They are trying to minimize travel. Sounds like we think they will be slotted in about 13 or 14 range... a 3 vs 14 seems possible, but maybe unlikely. Blum also mentioned how Iowa could be a 10 in the same side of the bracket as us if we end up a 2. I hate these possibilities.

Bring it on.