Don't disagree, but that's just the way it is. The domino effect with all the other bracketing rules and principles isn't going to allow them to keep Houston out of Houston.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
I think if you flip Iowa State to the south and Houston to the Midwest it's possible. You can't award a 2 seed the opportunity to play a mile from their campus. I have no dog in the fight but that's just crazy.
True.
It wouldn't be the first time the 4th #1 seed being placed in bracket w/ a 2 seed being at geographic advantage (going from memory), although I think it'd be first time the 2 being in its own city.
I’m not saying I agree but I think the counter argument would be that due to their early season losses they didn’t really clinch a 1 seed until the last day of the regular season, and it’s the last one. So should Houston be punished for earning the top 2 seed when Florida could’ve earned the #3 or #2 overall seed and not had to worry as much about regions? again, not sure I agree with putting that much weight on early season losses, but this season happened to have three teams who dominated start to finish. I think the reality is that most seasons there are regional-final locations that would effectively be homes games for some teams if they make the second weekend. Maybe this is an extreme case, but Houston would still have to win games to benefit
Cross posting from the St. Louis tread.
How likely is our first round opponent the winner of the MVC tournament happening right now… and possibly gasp UNI. I know everyone hates Lunardi but he has UIC as a 15 right now
How likely is our first round opponent the winner of the MVC tournament happening right now… and possibly gasp UNI. I know everyone hates Lunardi but he has UIC as a 15 right now
My bigger fear is getting a 2 seed with Mizzou as the 10 seed in St Louis. Mizzou is not a great team, but there are a ton of Mizzou fans in St Louis.
I have a hunch MVC champ will be 13 seed, almost for certain if it's UNI, UIC might be fringe 13/14. I think ISU is more likely to play NDSU in 3-14 (if UND wins Summit, that could drop to 15).
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
Looking at all the best mid-major teams this morning, it’s painfully obvious that they are struggling to get any shots at major conference teams.
You used to be able to see at least one or two benchmark games (each) when you look at their schedules, but from a random selection of four or five conference one seeds, I saw think I saw one notable game total.
You used to be able to see at least one or two benchmark games (each) when you look at their schedules, but from a random selection of four or five conference one seeds, I saw think I saw one notable game total.
Sure, 3 seed is definitely possible but I would be shocked if ISU was the last 3 seed.
Absolutely wouldn’t be the last, would be the first at worst.
How about a final update to the NET Nitty Gritty information. While there is still the Big XII tourney ahead, keep in mind that the Committee generally doesn't utilize tourney results in their seeding, only for the 68 making it into the field. So this is probably what the Committee will go off of when seeding and bracketing Iowa State.
Iowa State NET 8
25-6, 13-0 NC, 12-6 Conf
Home 16-1, Away 5-5, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 39, RPI SOS 65
KPI 17, SOR 12, WAB 12, BPI 8, POM 7, T Rank 9
Q1 6-6
..Q1a 3-5 (A 3 UA -16, H 7 UH +3, A 10 Purdue +23, H 15 TTU -9, A 19 KU -21, N 22 St John’s +1, A 24 BYU -10, A 40 TCU -7)
..Q1b 3-1 (H 19 KU +18, H 25 Iowa +4, A 47 UC -9, A 49 BU +10)
Q2 10-0
..Q2a 4-0 (H 49 BU +3, H 51 UCF +30, A 78 OSU +13, A 99 KSU +34)
..Q2b 6-0 (H 58 WVU +21, H 67 ASU +21, H 71 CU +30, N 81 Creighton +18, N 85 Syracuse +31, A 132 UU +16)
Q3 2-0 1-0 (H 78 OSU +12, N 111 Miss St +16)
Q4 7-0 (H 260 LBSU +31, H 288 HCU +28, H 302 GSU +40, H 323 EIU +25, H 332 Stonehill +39, H 334 FDU +38, H 352 Alcorn +64)
Notes:
ISU has 16 combined Q1 and Q2 wins and no losses below Q1b. ISU only has one loss below Q1a.
Next games:
3/11-14 Big 12 Tournament
Q2a N 67 ASU or Q1b N 49 BU
*Q1a N 15 TTU
Iowa State NET 8
25-6, 13-0 NC, 12-6 Conf
Home 16-1, Away 5-5, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 39, RPI SOS 65
KPI 17, SOR 12, WAB 12, BPI 8, POM 7, T Rank 9
Q1 6-6
..Q1a 3-5 (A 3 UA -16, H 7 UH +3, A 10 Purdue +23, H 15 TTU -9, A 19 KU -21, N 22 St John’s +1, A 24 BYU -10, A 40 TCU -7)
..Q1b 3-1 (H 19 KU +18, H 25 Iowa +4, A 47 UC -9, A 49 BU +10)
Q2 10-0
..Q2a 4-0 (H 49 BU +3, H 51 UCF +30, A 78 OSU +13, A 99 KSU +34)
..Q2b 6-0 (H 58 WVU +21, H 67 ASU +21, H 71 CU +30, N 81 Creighton +18, N 85 Syracuse +31, A 132 UU +16)
Q3 2-0 1-0 (H 78 OSU +12, N 111 Miss St +16)
Q4 7-0 (H 260 LBSU +31, H 288 HCU +28, H 302 GSU +40, H 323 EIU +25, H 332 Stonehill +39, H 334 FDU +38, H 352 Alcorn +64)
Notes:
ISU has 16 combined Q1 and Q2 wins and no losses below Q1b. ISU only has one loss below Q1a.
Next games:
3/11-14 Big 12 Tournament
Q2a N 67 ASU or Q1b N 49 BU
*Q1a N 15 TTU
Last edited:
How does the NET top 16 stack up…
Duke NET 1
29-2, 12-1 NC, 17-1 Conf
NET SOS 8, RPI SOS 7
KPI 2, SOR 3, WAB 1, BPI 1, POM 1, T Rank 1
Q1 15-2, Q2 5-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 7-0
Michigan NET 2
28-2, 10-1 NC, 18-1 Conf
NET SOS 5, RPI SOS 5
KPI 1, SOR 1, WAB 1, BPI 2, POM 2, T Rank 2
Q1 13-2, Q2 8-0, Q3 5-0, Q4 2-0
Arizona NET 3
29-2, 13-0 NC, 16-2 Conf
NET SOS 16, RPI SOS 13
KPI 3, SOR 2, WAB 3, BPI 3, POM 3, T Rank 4
Q1 15-2, Q2 5-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 7-0
Florida NET 4
25-6, 9-4 NC, 16-2 Conf
NET SOS 9, RPI SOS 12
KPI 4, SOR 5, WAB 4, BPI 4, POM 4, T Rank 3
Q1 11-5, Q2 7-1, Q3 2-0, Q4 5-0
Illinois NET 5
23-7, 9-2 NC, 14-5 Conf
NET SOS 15, RPI SOS 8
KPI 15, SOR 14, WAB 13, BPI 6, POM 5, T Rank 5
Q1 7-7, Q2 7-0, Q3 4-0, Q4 5-0
Gonzaga NET 6
28-3, 12-1 NC, 16-2 Conf
NET SOS 84, RPI SOS 109
KPI 20, SOR 11, WAB 17, BPI 7, POM 10, T Rank 12
Q1 6-2, Q2 4-0, Q3 10-1, Q4 8-0
Houston NET 7
26-5, 12-1 NC, 14-4 Conf
NET SOS 30, RPI SOS 47
KPI 6, SOR 7, WAB 6, BPI 5, POM 6, T Rank 6
Q1 7-5, Q2 11-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 6-0
Iowa State NET 8
25-6, 13-0 NC, 12-6 Conf
NET SOS 39, RPI SOS 65
KPI 17, SOR 12, WAB 12, BPI 8, POM 7, T Rank 9
Q1 6-6, Q2 10-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 7-0
UConn NET 9
27-4, 10-1 NC, 17-3 Conf
NET SOS 44, RPI SOS 28
KPI 5, SOR 4, WAB 5, BPI 10, POM 11, T Rank 8
Q1 7-2, Q2 9-1, Q3 6-1, Q4 5-0
Purdue NET 10
23-8, 10-1 NC, 13-7 Conf
NET SOS 7, RPI SOS 14
KPI 12, SOR 16, WAB 11, BPI 9, POM 8, T Rank 7
Q1 8-8, Q2 5-0, Q3 7-0, Q4 3-0
Michigan State NET 11
25-5, 10-1 NC, 15-4 Conf
NET SOS 23, RPI SOS 21
KPI 7, SOR 6, WAB 7, BPI 13, POM 9, T Rank 11
Q1 9-5, Q2 5-0, Q3 7-0, Q4 4-0
Nebraska NET 12
25-5, 11-0 NC, 14-5 Conf
NET SOS 52, RPI SOS 66
KPI 18, SOR 8, WAB 9, BPI 17, POM 12, T Rank 18
Q1 8-5, Q2 5-0, Q3 6-0, Q4 6-0
Louisville NET 13
22-9, 11-2 NC, 11-7 Conf
NET SOS 25, RPI SOS 34
KPI 27, SOR 26, WAB 21, BPI 11, POM 17, T Rank 14
Q1 7-9, Q2 4-0, Q3 4-0, Q4 7-0
Virginia NET 14
27-4, 12-1 NC, 15-3 Conf
NET SOS 73, RPI SOS 74
KPI 8, SOR 10, WAB 10, BPI 23, POM 20, T Rank 17
Q1 6-3, Q2 9-1, Q3 5-0, Q4 7-0
TTU NET 15
22-9, 10-3 NC, 12-6 Conf
NET SOS 6, RPI SOS 1
KPI 11, SOR 20, WAB 18, BPI 18, POM 15, T Rank 10
Q1 8-8, Q2 4-1, Q3 7-0, Q4 3-0
Vanderbilt NET 16
24-7, 13-0 NC, 11-7 Conf
NET SOS 28, RPI SOS 27
KPI 14, SOR 15, WAB 15, BPI 15, POM 13, T Rank 15
Q1 8-6, Q2 8-1, Q3 2-0, Q4 6-0
Duke NET 1
29-2, 12-1 NC, 17-1 Conf
NET SOS 8, RPI SOS 7
KPI 2, SOR 3, WAB 1, BPI 1, POM 1, T Rank 1
Q1 15-2, Q2 5-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 7-0
Michigan NET 2
28-2, 10-1 NC, 18-1 Conf
NET SOS 5, RPI SOS 5
KPI 1, SOR 1, WAB 1, BPI 2, POM 2, T Rank 2
Q1 13-2, Q2 8-0, Q3 5-0, Q4 2-0
Arizona NET 3
29-2, 13-0 NC, 16-2 Conf
NET SOS 16, RPI SOS 13
KPI 3, SOR 2, WAB 3, BPI 3, POM 3, T Rank 4
Q1 15-2, Q2 5-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 7-0
Florida NET 4
25-6, 9-4 NC, 16-2 Conf
NET SOS 9, RPI SOS 12
KPI 4, SOR 5, WAB 4, BPI 4, POM 4, T Rank 3
Q1 11-5, Q2 7-1, Q3 2-0, Q4 5-0
Illinois NET 5
23-7, 9-2 NC, 14-5 Conf
NET SOS 15, RPI SOS 8
KPI 15, SOR 14, WAB 13, BPI 6, POM 5, T Rank 5
Q1 7-7, Q2 7-0, Q3 4-0, Q4 5-0
Gonzaga NET 6
28-3, 12-1 NC, 16-2 Conf
NET SOS 84, RPI SOS 109
KPI 20, SOR 11, WAB 17, BPI 7, POM 10, T Rank 12
Q1 6-2, Q2 4-0, Q3 10-1, Q4 8-0
Houston NET 7
26-5, 12-1 NC, 14-4 Conf
NET SOS 30, RPI SOS 47
KPI 6, SOR 7, WAB 6, BPI 5, POM 6, T Rank 6
Q1 7-5, Q2 11-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 6-0
Iowa State NET 8
25-6, 13-0 NC, 12-6 Conf
NET SOS 39, RPI SOS 65
KPI 17, SOR 12, WAB 12, BPI 8, POM 7, T Rank 9
Q1 6-6, Q2 10-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 7-0
UConn NET 9
27-4, 10-1 NC, 17-3 Conf
NET SOS 44, RPI SOS 28
KPI 5, SOR 4, WAB 5, BPI 10, POM 11, T Rank 8
Q1 7-2, Q2 9-1, Q3 6-1, Q4 5-0
Purdue NET 10
23-8, 10-1 NC, 13-7 Conf
NET SOS 7, RPI SOS 14
KPI 12, SOR 16, WAB 11, BPI 9, POM 8, T Rank 7
Q1 8-8, Q2 5-0, Q3 7-0, Q4 3-0
Michigan State NET 11
25-5, 10-1 NC, 15-4 Conf
NET SOS 23, RPI SOS 21
KPI 7, SOR 6, WAB 7, BPI 13, POM 9, T Rank 11
Q1 9-5, Q2 5-0, Q3 7-0, Q4 4-0
Nebraska NET 12
25-5, 11-0 NC, 14-5 Conf
NET SOS 52, RPI SOS 66
KPI 18, SOR 8, WAB 9, BPI 17, POM 12, T Rank 18
Q1 8-5, Q2 5-0, Q3 6-0, Q4 6-0
Louisville NET 13
22-9, 11-2 NC, 11-7 Conf
NET SOS 25, RPI SOS 34
KPI 27, SOR 26, WAB 21, BPI 11, POM 17, T Rank 14
Q1 7-9, Q2 4-0, Q3 4-0, Q4 7-0
Virginia NET 14
27-4, 12-1 NC, 15-3 Conf
NET SOS 73, RPI SOS 74
KPI 8, SOR 10, WAB 10, BPI 23, POM 20, T Rank 17
Q1 6-3, Q2 9-1, Q3 5-0, Q4 7-0
TTU NET 15
22-9, 10-3 NC, 12-6 Conf
NET SOS 6, RPI SOS 1
KPI 11, SOR 20, WAB 18, BPI 18, POM 15, T Rank 10
Q1 8-8, Q2 4-1, Q3 7-0, Q4 3-0
Vanderbilt NET 16
24-7, 13-0 NC, 11-7 Conf
NET SOS 28, RPI SOS 27
KPI 14, SOR 15, WAB 15, BPI 15, POM 13, T Rank 15
Q1 8-6, Q2 8-1, Q3 2-0, Q4 6-0
Arizona and Duke having 15 Q1 wins each is insane.
UNI is going to be a 12.
They are going to be evaluated as a 21-6 team due to the Tristan Smith injury. Totally different team with him available.
Agreed. Looking at that, they absolutely deserve 1 seeds. Along with Michigan and Florida the separation from the pack is glaring.
ISU a bit unlucky that OSU couldn't hold up their end of the bargain. If they were just 3 spots higher in the NET the home win goes from a Q3 to a Q2b and the road win goes from a Q2a to Q1b.
That additional Q1 win along with no change in the number of Q2 wins could have helped separate ISU from its neighbors in the S curve.
They need to charge less for a buy game.
They aren’t getting invited to the MTEs.
I would be okay with TJ converting a couple strategically placed Q4 buy games to Q3. It would help the SOS that is pretty glaring at this point. It would also give the team a bit more of a challenge in the early season.
Preseason, Creighton, Syracuse, Oklahoma State, and Mississippi State were 4 teams you'd expect to be Q1 wins.
UIC isn't getting an at large bid. Not with that resume.
