2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

agree with all but my gut says Michigan State will be ahead of Iowa State even if they get smacked tomorrow. Iowa State just did at Arizona. Illinois and Iowa State are fighting for the last 2 I think, they’ve been equally shaky the last two+ weeks
I think the three big 10 teams are probably Michigan State then Illinois then Purdue, but I have a hard time knowing where they will put us and UConn in relation to those 3 and each other.
 
I see it as a toss up between ISU and Illinois for last 2nd and top 3rd seed. Agree with the point that Mich State losing is comparable to ISU losing at AZ. If they beat Michigan then they likely jump Houston
 
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If Florida grabs the last #1 seed over Houston that could throw a giant wrench in regards to the seeding. You can't award Houston the South regional (which is in Houston TX) as a 2 seed, can you??

Also, I'd think the committee would like to avoid having the #1 and #2 seed from the same conference.

Things could get weird. My best guess.

East: 1. Duke 2. Uconn 3. Mich St
Midwest: 1. Michigan 2. Houston 3. Nebraska
South: 1. Florida 2. Iowa State 3. Gonzaga
West: 1. Arizona 2. Illinois 3. TTech
 
If this is why you don’t solely trust computer algorithms was a picture, this is the one I would use

I agree it is on the pessimistic side.

I don't think a #3 is outlandish at this point, though.

We'd be annoyed at the committee but they do those kinds of things sometimes.
 
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I agree it is on the pessimistic side.

I don't think a #3 is outlandish at this point, though.

We'd be annoyed at the committee but they do those kinds of things sometimes.
Oh, I have us as the best 3 or worst 2, so I agree. I just don't think that the committee would (as a lot of bracketologists did) move Illinois above us when we both lost two games, and ours were tougher.
 
No data to back this up but the group seems to play better when they're maybe slighted a bit so in that context maybe a 3 is better for them.
 
If Florida grabs the last #1 seed over Houston that could throw a giant wrench in regards to the seeding. You can't award Houston the South regional (which is in Houston TX) as a 2 seed, can you??

Also, I'd think the committee would like to avoid having the #1 and #2 seed from the same conference.

Things could get weird. My best guess.

East: 1. Duke 2. Uconn 3. Mich St
Midwest: 1. Michigan 2. Houston 3. Nebraska
South: 1. Florida 2. Iowa State 3. Gonzaga
West: 1. Arizona 2. Illinois 3. TTech
Houston can play in the South region as they are not the host. I believe the committee tries to keep the top 4 teams from each conference in different regions if they are a 1-4 seed, so Houston will likely get the South with Florida, assuming they stay ahead of Tech. Iowa State will likely be in the East or Midwest.
 
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Houston can play in the South region as they are not the host. I believe the committee tries to keep the top 4 teams from each conference in different regions if they are a 1-4 seed, so Houston will likely get the South with Florida, assuming they stay ahead of Tech. Iowa State will likely be in the East or Midwest.

If Im Florida, and I rightfully earn the 1 seed over Houston, I would be irrate to have to play in their backyard. That is an enormous advantage to Houston (who didn't earn it). That just doesn't seem right.