2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

I think it’s just the Cincy game that was worrisome. The Kansas game doesn’t bother me a bit. No body was beating Kansas that game at that time. Self had their full attention after they had lost two of three

That Cincinnati game isn't a terrible loss (I think they're pretty far from being <75 so it should stay as a Q1 game as a road loss) but it is definitely the largest weakness in the CV right now.

And, to be honest, we don't have many "big time" wins.

at Purdue (!!!) definitely

After that one, though?

St. John's on a neutral court?
Iowa at home?

...already starting to run dry.

Good news is the monstrous 2/14 to 3/2 run is almost nothing but resumé-stuffing opportunities.



We'll have a strong case when you can say you took down KU, UH, and TTU and went undefeated at home and nabbed a tough one from BYU in Provo (if they can actually do these things).

That Arizona game might be a de facto play-in for a #1 seed.

Not for them -- they're probably safe even with that loss -- but maybe for us.

 

[ForeverIowan]

It really feels like this teams floor is a 2 seed. It would take a pretty rough end to the year to fall to a 3 seed.

Win the next two games and Im comfortable stating the below:

Win Out = 1 seed
1 Loss = 1 seed
2 Losses = Selection Sunday likely to be really exciting. Coin flip between 1/2 seed.
3 or More Losses = 2 seed.

Protect Hilton and things are going to get really interesting.

 

[mj4cy]

It really feels like this teams floor is a 2 seed. It would take a pretty rough end to the year to fall to a 3 seed.

Win the next two games and Im comfortable stating the below:

Win Out = 1 seed
1 Loss = 1 seed
2 Losses = Selection Sunday likely to be really exciting. Coin flip between 1/2 seed.
3 or More Losses = 2 seed.

Protect Hilton and things are going to get really interesting.

To remain a 2, I think we need to win a minimum 2 out of this cluster of games:

KU
HOU
@BYU
Tech
@Zona

 

[kevdiv48]

To remain a 2, I think we need to win a minimum 2 out of this cluster of games:

KU
HOU
@BYU
Tech
@Zona

Agreed. Holding serve at home is no guarantee with this quality of opponents. on the flip side @ BYU looks (slightly) less daunting.

 

[cyclones500]

To remain a 2, I think we need to win a minimum 2 out of this cluster of games:

KU
HOU
@BYU
Tech
@Zona

I agree, 2 of those 5 and strong likelihood of 2 seed, 3 of 5 and I'd feel more "safe."

Also:
* Hope there isn't major surge among (too many) other teams vying for that.
* Avoid a bad loss. At TCU (as of now) would be Quad 1, need to TCOB vs. ASU and at Utah.

 

[MeanDean]

I agree, 2 of those 5 and strong likelihood of 2 seed, 3 of 5 and I'd feel more "safe."

Also:
* Hope there isn't major surge among (too many) other teams vying for that.
* Avoid a bad loss. At TCU (as of now) would be Quad 1, need to TCOB vs. ASU and at Utah.

Yeah, if the other teams vying for a #2 seed take a dump, as long as one of the 3 or 4 seed teams don't pull a lot of upsets.

Most of it is in ISU control. But some of it is not. Best to just keep winning and see where we end up.

 

[KennyPratt42]

Does this mean you are starting to warm up to the fact they are National Title contenders?

No not really, more interested in what is causing that discrepancy. In digging into the numbers a little a couple factors seem to be playing teams like Florida and Kansas early in the year when they weren’t playing as well as they are now, but getting some of the credit in their resume metrics for their recent success and moving up rankings. Then also having some close wins in conference play against average teams (Georgetown, Providence twice, Seton Hall, Villanova) that didn’t seem to hurt their resume metrics as much as efficiency metrics, which don’t take wins/losses into account.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Agreed. Holding serve at home is no guarantee with this quality of opponents. on the flip side @ BYU looks (slightly) less daunting.

As always Hilton must be protected. Tough stretch for sure but there are no excuses to not win all the games in Ames. Fair or not that is the expectation especially tosolidify 2 seed and keep a 1 in play.

 

[ForeverIowan]

To remain a 2, I think we need to win a minimum 2 out of this cluster of games:

KU
HOU
@BYU
Tech
@Zona

If we dont win at minimum two of those we may have bigger problems on our hands than seed line. To go 1-4 or 0-5 in those games late in the year would not be a great indicator of our chances in the tournament.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I was curious what losing the "big five" games would do.





Still a respectable #4 seed but definitely back down to Earth.

 

[Kettes]

Keeping off the 4 seed is a must. That is a complete and utter f'n disaster!

If we hold at home, which we should, we'll be fine. Not much difference in a 2 or 3 seed.

 

[Sigmapolis]

@Kettes, yeah, avoiding the #1 seeds for as long as possible is an imperative.

Those #3s up there in the Sweet Sixteen don't scare me nearly as much as the #1s.

Avoid the #1 until you've got a least an Elite Eight under your belt.

 

[mj4cy]

If we dont win at minimum two of those we may have bigger problems on our hands than seed line. To go 1-4 or 0-5 in those games late in the year would not be a great indicator of our chances in the tournament.

Maybe maybe not...

In 2021-2022, we lost 7 of the final 11 games before making a Sweet 16 run.

 

[VeloClone]

That Cincinnati game isn't a terrible loss (I think they're pretty far from being <75 so it should stay as a Q1 game as a road loss) but it is definitely the largest weakness in the CV right now.

And, to be honest, we don't have many "big time" wins.

at Purdue (!!!) definitely

After that one, though?

St. John's on a neutral court?
Iowa at home?

...already starting to run dry.

Good news is the monstrous 2/14 to 3/2 run is almost nothing but resumé-stuffing opportunities.

View attachment 167168

We'll have a strong case when you can say you took down KU, UH, and TTU and went undefeated at home and nabbed a tough one from BYU in Provo (if they can actually do these things).

That Arizona game might be a de facto play-in for a #1 seed.

Not for them -- they're probably safe even with that loss -- but maybe for us.

Cincy is NET 79 so it is currently a Q2a loss.

 

[CySmurf]

The top 10-12 teams this year are absolutely loaded.

You have your Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Uconn title contenders, but I could easily see teams like Kansas, Illinois, and Florida beating any of those teams right now.

Not surprised you didn't mention us...true Hawkeye fans, like yourself, can't bring themselves to admit we have a legit shot at a Final Four and possible National Championship...but you keep being you. ;-)

 

[NENick]

Saying "should win the rest of the home games" is fine, but right now winning at BYU seems more reasonable than beating Houston at home. This team can beat Houston, but I expect it's going to be a war.

Baylor next! This has been a long week!

 

[xboxfever]

@Kettes, yeah, avoiding the #1 seeds for as long as possible is an imperative.

Those #3s up there in the Sweet Sixteen don't scare me nearly as much as the #1s.

Avoid the #1 until you've got a least an Elite Eight under your belt.

Why avoid the #1’s when you can just be a 1 seed?

 

[Sigmapolis]

Cincy is NET 79 so it is currently a Q2a loss.

They're #49 on Torvik, so I thought there's no way they're close to 75 in NET.

Oops.

Come on Bearcats pick up a little steam help us out.

This team can beat Houston, but I expect it's going to be a war.

That game is always a brawl -- on the order of the Battle of Passchendaele.

Why avoid the #1’s when you can just be a 1 seed?

I guess functionally that outcome would be the same thing if you're trying to avoid them.

 

[NYCYFan]

It really feels like this teams floor is a 2 seed. It would take a pretty rough end to the year to fall to a 3 seed.

Win the next two games and Im comfortable stating the below:

Win Out = 1 seed
1 Loss = 1 seed
2 Losses = Selection Sunday likely to be really exciting. Coin flip between 1/2 seed.
3 or More Losses = 2 seed.

Protect Hilton and things are going to get really interesting.

The floor is definitely lower than 2 seed even if they go something like 5-4 in the last 9 games depending on who the losses are to. The Cyclones have an excellent out of conference resume but the in conference resume as of now is lacking meat so they probably need at minimum need 2 wins against the good teams and avoid more than one bad loss to the Baylor, TCU, Utah and Arizona State group to be confident in a 2 seed at minimum. The competition for the top 2 seeds this season is extraordinarily tough.

 

[clonechemist]

Maybe maybe not...

In 2021-2022, we lost 7 of the final 11 games before making a Sweet 16 run.

100% this. Feels like the correlation between the last chunk of conference play, the conference tourney, and the Big Dance is very low.

Of course I want this team to dominate everyone from here on out to get a 1 seed and the easiest possible path…. But at the end of the day this teams legacy will come down to how they perform in the tournament.