We are #4 in both KenPom and BartTorvik right now. Big jump in BT as we were at #8 yesterday I believe.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
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Agree 100%. Highest rated KenPom offense since KenPom was created in I think I heard early 2000s. Their lead guard (Kylan Boswell (14 ppg)) is currently out with a hand injury as well and expected back. True frosh Keaton Wagler getting better every game. Think I also heard they are the tallest team in the country.
Keep them OUT of our region please.
Anyone who doesnt think Illinois is a top 5ish team and true national title contender is seriously sleeping on them.
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The top 10-12 teams this year are absolutely loaded.
You have your Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Uconn title contenders, but I could easily see teams like Kansas, Illinois, and Florida beating any of those teams right now.
You have your Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Uconn title contenders, but I could easily see teams like Kansas, Illinois, and Florida beating any of those teams right now.
You forgetting anyone?
Although I may have not agreed with it at times, CBS Sports always had an article on Sunday nights titled "Tomorrows top 25 today" in which a writer (Matt Norlander?) predicted the new weekly AP Poll. Not necessarily his view but how he thought the voters would present the new weekly rankings. No article this week. It was a nice reference to what each team in the poll did since the last one for those like me that don't follow every game of every team or forgot they "lost to X, but beat Y" and how he thought those results would influence the voters. Voters don't follow metrics as closely as wins/losses (or for some on here) but the cream at the top is pretty thick this year. I think we could possibly move up a spot but more than likely stay put.
No, I left out Iowa State, Purdue, Nebraska, Gonzaga, Michigan St, and Vanderbilt because I think they are all elite teams, but have a Final 4 ceiling instead of championship material.
The eventual national champion will come from the group of 7 I mentioned. This year's ISU team is really good but I dont think they are as deep or talented as teams like Florida or Michigan.
No way UConn is in that 4. If they do end up a 1 seed, I hope we’re the 2 in their bracket.
Ok, so technically they dont have the offense, currently ranked 34th, the criteria to be national champions going back to UCONN in 2014 is a top 25 offense and defense both.
They also beat BYU, Kansas, Illinois, and Florida, have lost once , and have the #4 ranked defense. I also just remembered the part where Hurley has won national championships before.
What about them besides being just outside the Top 25 in offense screams "not a title contender" and who would your replace them with?
Iowa has zero chance. Solid Round of 32 team that would need to pull a huge upset or hope for bracket chaos to make the Sweet 16.Iowa?
And what about Iowa state and all the metrics say we aren’t a title contender at this point in the season? Every metric says we are right there with the best of them. Or is that your weird ability to not be able to admit we are good?
To me, it is the eye test right now. Obviously they have "earned" a great ranking because of the wins. And Hurley and the program clearly have a championship pedigree. But they are not as talented as they were in those title years. And they just are not executing as well as their record indicates. For comparison - I am really anxious to see our stretch against KU, BYU, Tech, Houston, and Arizona. I hope we can prove that we are better than UConn.
I cannot answer for him, but my worry (which is typical for a Cyclone fan) is our "floor". I think our floor is lower than some of these other top teams. I am so very happy we are on the 4-0 stretch we are on, and Torvik has us playing as one of the best teams in the country. Literally could NOT have responded any better than we have since those 2 losses. But the fear is - those 2 losses did happen. And it is not "losing" that is worrisome - it is how we played. Certainly we cannot expect the team will play perfect every game. And they might very well have some rough patches, and have to grind some wins down the stretch. But those 2 games were not just rough, they were dreadfully awful. Like, bad bad - some of the worst basketball of the Otz era.
So IF that 2 game stretch was just an anomaly and not something we will see again - we have a good shot for a deep run. Our best or even near-best can win a national title, and only a handful of teams can say that. And for that I am grateful.
IF that team shows up at all again this year though, it will lose the game. THAT team cannot beat anyone left on the entire schedule, not even a 15 seed.
@NoCreativity, you named 7 potential champions and 6, including ISU, in a group just below. I believe the Cyclones are the best of that 2nd group and would add them and Houston, who you omitted, with the 1st group.
Yeah, sorry, I forgot about Houston. I would agree that we are at the top of the 2nd tier. We definitely have the metrics and star players right now to win a national championship, I just think we need to break through to a Final 4 first before we even begin to talk about that.
A majority of the other teams on the list have done it before except for Lloyd from Arizona.
I wouldn’t replace them. I’m just saying they’re not in the UA, Duke, Mich conversation. They aren’t better than ISU or IL.
Which by what you are saying we are certainly a national title contender. The way we look at our best still matters, and when we play that way we can beat anyone and have shown that to boot. Who knows how things shake out but every team, sans maybe Arizona has some weaknesses, so we are not alone there. To say we aren’t in the conversation for a contender is dishonest at best.
Looking at the 9 regular season games left, depending of course on how the other top teams do, I really think it would take an 8-1 finish for a one seed. Win all the home games, don't slip up against TCU or Utah(!), and beat either BYU or AZ on the road. Maybe 7-2, beating both of the last 2 will do it, if the losses are 2 of Houston, TT, KU.
If you look at torvik or kp game rankings, isu is very consistent overall, with one dip. If you look at top 10 teams, almost every ither team has that dip too. Some are earlier in the season. The one exception is arozona has been insanely consistent. If guy look at duke, they match us withb that dip almost to a t.
So disagree about other top teams not having that floor. I wpuld have tjought the same.. my guess is because we watch all isu games so notice the difference, where we havent seen all the lows of the other top teams.
