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2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

Just for fun here is winning out...

1770268961196.png

Easy #1 seed.

L at Arizona but win everything else.

1770269006697.png

Clinging to a #1 seed.

Same deal if you flip BYU to a L and Arizona to a W.

Lose both Arizona and BYU and you slip to #2/probably on the 1-2 bubble.

1770269121556.png

Assuming no "stupid" losses (anything outside @ UA and @ BYU) and #2 is probably the floor.

Pull a big road win and a #1 is in reach.

Ws at home and Ls on the road (probably a worst-case scenario) drops you to a #3.

1770269200165.png

#3 is probably about the floor now barring absolute disaster.
 
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UConn is an interesting case to me. Their efficiency metrics (I look mainly at Kenpom and Torvic) are good, but more like a top 10 team than a top 2-3 team. But their resume metrics (WAB and Strength of Record) along with human rankings and bracketologies all have them in the top 3.

I haven't been super impressed when I've watched them, but also the few games I've watched haven't been their best (Kansas, Providence, and Georgetown) based on Torvic game scores.
 
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KennyPratt42 said:
UConn is an interesting case to me. Their efficiency metrics (I look mainly at Kenpom and Torvic) are good, but more like a top 10 team than a top 2-3 team. But their resume metrics (WAB and Strength of Record) along with human rankings and bracketologies all have them in the top 3.

I haven't been super impressed when I've watched them, but also the few games I've watched haven't been their best (Kansas, Providence, and Georgetown) based on Torvic game scores.
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Does this mean you are starting to warm up to the fact they are National Title contenders?
 
CychiatricWard said:
What about their resume is a 4 seed?
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Beating Alabama, absolutely curb stomping Kentucky, 7-1 in Q 1/2 (not their fault they don't get the same number of opportunities, the P5 set it up that way). Still Top 10 NET and in the top 16 in KenPom and Torvik.

I would argue that they're actually PUNISHED for things completely outside their control.
 
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Sigmapolis said:
Just for fun here is winning out...

View attachment 167148

Easy #1 seed.

L at Arizona but win everything else.

View attachment 167149

Clinging to a #1 seed.

Same deal if you flip BYU to a L and Arizona to a W.

Lose both Arizona and BYU and you slip to #2/probably on the 1-2 bubble.

View attachment 167151

Assuming no "stupid" losses (anything outside @ UA and @ BYU) and #2 is probably the floor.

Pull a big road win and a #1 is in reach.

Ws at home and Ls on the road (probably a worst-case scenario) drops you to a #3.

View attachment 167152

#3 is probably about the floor now barring absolute disaster.
Click to expand...
Great spot to be in!!

Feels like a 2 seed is most likely, but a ton to play for. The last few weeks of the regular season are gonna be exciting.
 
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Sigmapolis said:
Just for fun here is winning out...

View attachment 167148

Easy #1 seed.

L at Arizona but win everything else.

View attachment 167149

Clinging to a #1 seed.

Same deal if you flip BYU to a L and Arizona to a W.

Lose both Arizona and BYU and you slip to #2/probably on the 1-2 bubble.

View attachment 167151

Assuming no "stupid" losses (anything outside @ UA and @ BYU) and #2 is probably the floor.

Pull a big road win and a #1 is in reach.

Ws at home and Ls on the road (probably a worst-case scenario) drops you to a #3.

View attachment 167152

#3 is probably about the floor now barring absolute disaster.
Click to expand...
Would have taken that on Nov 1 every time - and that's an extreme understatement
 
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A #2 seed is the modal outcome right now, but a #1 isn't far behind.

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The Cyclones are actually the sixth-most likely #1 seed on BT right now.

1770310477070.png

Remember we were projected here and a #5 seed right before the season on BT.

1770310588833.png

This team has definitely beaten expectations so far.
 
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CHim said:
I thought we tried this year but Creighton and Miss State were not what everyone thought they would be. I wonder how the numbers would look if Creighton was still a top 25 team or whichever spot they started the year at. I thought Miss State was in the 30s to start the year but I could be making that up. So it seems like they tried to schedule a better noncon, some of them just fell off. Shoot even the Syracuse win was starting to look nice when they beat Tennessee right after we played but they have since fallen off a cliff.

We did have some absolute jokes of a noncon schedule for a couple years there but seemed like this year they at least tried to build it out.
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We've gotten extremely unlucky in our trips to Maui and Vegas. We were a top 5 team at the time and got put against the #1 team in Auburn in Maui. Then we play Dayton and Colorado after Colorado upsets UConn in the 1st round.

Then we go 2-0 and beat St. John's and Creighton, two preseason top 25 teams. But because of the dumb format, we're rewarded with Syracuse, one of the worst teams in a stacked field. St. John's isn't the national title contender they were expected to be, and Creighton isn't going to the tournament.
 
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Sigmapolis said:
A #2 seed is the modal outcome right now, but a #1 isn't far behind.

View attachment 167162

The Cyclones are actually the sixth-most likely #1 seed on BT right now.

View attachment 167163

Remember we were projected here and a #5 seed right before the season on BT.

View attachment 167164

This team has definitely beaten expectations so far.
Click to expand...

Which is why people should embrace and enjoy it for that imo.

Better record=higher expectations but nothing is ever a given as about any program out there has experienced.
 
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Cloned4Life said:
I cannot answer for him, but my worry (which is typical for a Cyclone fan) is our "floor". I think our floor is lower than some of these other top teams. I am so very happy we are on the 4-0 stretch we are on, and Torvik has us playing as one of the best teams in the country. Literally could NOT have responded any better than we have since those 2 losses. But the fear is - those 2 losses did happen. And it is not "losing" that is worrisome - it is how we played. Certainly we cannot expect the team will play perfect every game. And they might very well have some rough patches, and have to grind some wins down the stretch. But those 2 games were not just rough, they were dreadfully awful. Like, bad bad - some of the worst basketball of the Otz era.

So IF that 2 game stretch was just an anomaly and not something we will see again - we have a good shot for a deep run. Our best or even near-best can win a national title, and only a handful of teams can say that. And for that I am grateful.
IF that team shows up at all again this year though, it will lose the game. THAT team cannot beat anyone left on the entire schedule, not even a 15 seed.
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I think it’s just the Cincy game that was worrisome. The Kansas game doesn’t bother me a bit. No body was beating Kansas that game at that time. Self had their full attention after they had lost two of three
 
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SolarGarlic said:
We've gotten extremely unlucky in our trips to Maui and Vegas. We were a top 5 team at the time and got put against the #1 team in Auburn in Maui. Then we play Dayton and Colorado after Colorado upsets UConn in the 1st round.

Then we go 2-0 and beat St. John's and Creighton, two preseason top 25 teams. But because of the dumb format, we're rewarded with Syracuse, one of the worst teams in a stacked field. St. John's isn't the national title contender they were expected to be, and Creighton isn't going to the tournament.
Click to expand...

Def helps we scheduled Purdue and got them on the road
 
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madguy30 said:
Which is why people should embrace and enjoy it for that imo.

Better record=higher expectations but nothing is ever a given as about any program out there has experienced.
Click to expand...
I was around when we went to our first NCAA tournament (modern era) and for the first 10-15 years or so of my fandom, just seeing our name appear was a huge deal. High seeding of any kind is a luxury to me.
 
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