I felt a little better about our turd of a performance after Baylor got whipped too.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
We're all diehard fans here. We all watch the games (some multiple times) and we all obsess over this stuff too much. There is absolutely evidence of an "Otz lull" - it's so weird to try to debate against this, as if you're being a better fan than someone who's frustrated that our numbers trend downward as the season goes on (and yes all 4 seasons count, injuries count, it all matters). Hell, even in the 2023-2024 season, our OE metrics did drastically decline during a crappy multi-week stretch from February into early March. It was literally discussed constantly on this very board how frustrating it was to - yet again - see our offensive look like total dogsh*t the further we got into conference play. Our defense was #1 in the country during this timespan, thankfully. And then they recovered for the Big 12 tourney, which was amazing.
AND at the same time, there is obviously/absolutely evidence that his program keeps getting better overall. Which is awesome. We are in great hands.
Neither are related.
As a fan, I love our team and coach, AND I want he and his staff to figure out why our offense sputters at times during this time of year (consistently - year after year, e.g., a very real lull) and figure out new ways to adjust to other teams' adjustments.
They were only called for 10 fouls total in that game, as long as the refs refuse to blow the whistle in Phog Allen, they will beat anyone there. They also only had 4 turnovers
Sorry to say it @Sigmapolis, but I'm kind of dreading your post-Cincinati analytics update.
I gotta tell ya, it's been fun seeing very few losses in the future!
Believe it or not, per Bart T this one was an improvement 
Lol, we'll have 3 more losses by the end of the month if they keep playing like this. 3 the rest of the year is a fantasy.
I do think the offense can take better care of the basketball, improve its efficiency, and that that would lead to better defense. I don’t know that the team can get their metrics back to the top four—who would bet their hard-earned money that Iowa State demolishes even UCF?—so I’m very disappointed. I think at this point you forget about record and just hope you’re playing great ball come March
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TJ's teams have had issues with patience on offense and that seems to be a problem now as well.
Unless something gets fixed, no way in hell they finish 26-5 (13-5). They look like a 0.500 conference team at best right now.
I'll be shocked if we win even two of these games playing like we are now:
@ OSU
@ TCU
vs. KU
vs. Houston
vs. TTU
@ OSU
@ TCU
vs. KU
vs. Houston
vs. TTU
Torvik dropped the team to the #3 line after last week.
Out of morbid curiosity I wanted to see the "floor" -- assume an undefeated home slate but no more road wins. You might be able to imagine worse than that outcome, but I'm not going further.
We've "fallen back into the pack" a bit, certainly, which is going to make a #1 seed hard to achieve at this point, but the good news is we're getting into a slightly thicker slice of the distribution and competing for seed lines with other teams with a few blemishes on their record. So, things are looking up!
85-74 (84% win expectation) against the Golden Knights tonight.
Win this game. Defend the home court. Right the ship. Then we can go from there.
Out of morbid curiosity I wanted to see the "floor" -- assume an undefeated home slate but no more road wins. You might be able to imagine worse than that outcome, but I'm not going further.
We've "fallen back into the pack" a bit, certainly, which is going to make a #1 seed hard to achieve at this point, but the good news is we're getting into a slightly thicker slice of the distribution and competing for seed lines with other teams with a few blemishes on their record. So, things are looking up!
85-74 (84% win expectation) against the Golden Knights tonight.
Win this game. Defend the home court. Right the ship. Then we can go from there.
The way I see it you'd have to go 4-2, maybe even 5-1 against Baylor, Kansas, Houston, BYU, Tech, and Arizona to even sniff a 1 again. But my question analytics-wise is will you have to pound the UCFs and Kansas States now that you dropped a game you shouldn't have, or is a win a win at this point?
Winning big games is going to matter 100x more than pounding mid Big 12 teams.
The season is halfway over, so a lot of the sample size is already accounted for when it comes to how the computers are going to see you. And the computer ratings generally have a "mercy rule" parameter in them (some more than others, KenPom has a "weak" one while Torvik has a "strong" one) where the impact of margin of victory starts to degrade once it gets large enough if you try to run up the score.
I wouldn't worry about doing that at all.
I'd worry about winning all the games you should if you want to be a top-four seed.
And stealing as many Q1A wins as you can from high-level Big 12 peers.
Okay, thanks. Well, that makes me feel a little better. If you have to scrape by Oklahoma State, TCU,... so be it
