Assuming
the reporting about 1st/2nd from each pod is accurate, and ignoring further down tiebreak rules:
If St. John's beats Baylor:
- Iowa State goes to the championship game if Auburn beats Michigan by less than 8
- Iowa State goes to the third-place game otherwise
If Baylor beats St. John's:
- Iowa State goes to the championship game if Auburn beats Michigan by less than 8 AND Baylor beats St. John's by less than 12
- Iowa State goes to the third-place game if only one of those happens
- Iowa State goes to the consolation games if neither happens