To your question, all I can say is... maybe? For every kid that gets the early offer, blows up and has to take that larger money bag (or whatever greener pasture) -- there will be a select few that actually stay committed. I think someone like Lazard would possibly stay true, Breece...who knows? Every situation is genuinely unique because it depends on what is important to the kid and family.
Big picture though, I agree with what you say next. I'm not really worried at all, and that was the unsaid part of my post above. The football program and culture is really healthy right now. The most critical thing at this point is keeping this football staff intact...not necessarily keeping every coach but keeping as many of them as possible, especially CMC. Hopefully we can keep Mouse and the Professor for several more years too. The player-led culture that's blossomed the last couple years in particular is what is going to keep this thing going, and I think that component will also attract the 'right kind' of players we can be successful at a high level with at Iowa State.