2025 Big XII Championship Projections

[Dale]

Hey, y'all. This is apparently the 9th year I've done these projections. Is it a coincidence that this has been the best nine-year stretch in ISU football history? You be the judge.

In short: This is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Iowa St.: 39.9% (23.4% 1st, 16.5% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 30.5% (15.9% 1st, 14.6% 2nd)
BYU: 28.0% (15.1% 1st, 12.9% 2nd)
TCU: 25.2% (13.3% 1st, 11.9% 2nd)
Arizona St: 19.0% (9.1% 1st, 9.9% 2nd)
Kansas: 15.0% (7.0% 1st, 8.0% 2nd)
Utah: 11.7% (4.9% 1st, 6.9% 2nd)
UCF: 7.5% (3.0% 1st, 4.4% 2nd)
Houston: 5.2% (2.0% 1st, 3.1% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 4.9% (1.6% 1st, 3.3% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 4.1% (1.6% 1st, 2.5% 2nd)
Arizona: 3.8% (1.4% 1st, 2.3% 2nd)
Baylor: 3.8% (1.3% 1st, 2.5% 2nd)
Colorado: 0.8% (0.2% 1st, 0.6% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.4% (0.1% 1st, 0.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.3% (0.1% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)

No surprise that there's a lot a parity, with no one over a 40 percent change of making the championship game.

Most likely championship game matchups:

Iowa St./Texas Tech: 8.2%
BYU/Iowa St.: 7.2%
Iowa St./TCU: 6.2%
BYU/Texas Tech: 5.0%
Arizona St/Iowa St.: 4.6%
TCU/Texas Tech: 4.6%
BYU/TCU: 4.1%
Iowa St./Kansas: 3.6%
Arizona St/Texas Tech: 3.2%
Arizona St/BYU: 3.1%
Arizona St/TCU: 2.6%
Iowa St./Utah: 2.6%
BYU/Kansas: 2.4%
Kansas/Texas Tech: 2.4%
Texas Tech/Utah: 2.4%
Kansas/TCU: 2.2%

And here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:

ISU record chances:
5-7: 0.2%
6-6: 2.0%
7-5: 7.9%
8-4: 19.3%
9-3: 28.9%
10-2: 26.2%
11-1: 12.9%
12-0: 2.6%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.0%
8-4: 0.1%
9-3: 14.8%
10-2: 77.1%
11-1: 99.2%
12-0: 100.0%

 

[ShopTalk]

Well that's good news!

 

[HFCS]

I’m skeptical of Utah and UCF (7 and 8) making top two although who knows with tie breakers.

The top six you have all seem completely equally likely to make the CCG.

If ISU actually gets in this year I like the chances have come up short in two recent ccg.

 

[Dale]

I’m skeptical of Utah and UCF (7 and 8) making top two although who knows with tie breakers.

I saw a lot of the UCF-North Carolina game yesterday, mostly because my son is a student at UCF. They looked pretty good, but I don't know how much of that was actually the mediocrity of North Carolina.

 

[JM4CY]

I saw a lot of the UCF-North Carolina game yesterday, mostly because my son is a student at UCF. They looked pretty good, but I don't know how much of that was actually the mediocrity of North Carolina.

Mediocrity is generous.

Also, appreciate these threads!!

 

[nrg4isu]

You don't happen to have this on github do you?

 

[swiacy]

The game in Fort Worth vs TCU is circled on my schedule and KU in Ames is noted. TCU is quietly gaining momentum and KU’s QB eats our 3 down lineman D alive.

 

[Dale]

You don't happen to have this on github do you?

Let me clean up the code and throw it on my Github in the next week or two -- basically right now it's commented for me, not for the public.

 

[Dale]

You don't happen to have this on github do you?

Never mind my last post -- I had time to do it today. The Github has the two Python files I use for the main projection. There's another one that figures out the max impact games remaining for Iowa State -- that's quite ugly and needs more TLC before I'm willing to show it to the world.

 

[aeroclone]

Great odds of another 10+ win season. Back to back 10+ seasons would be amazing given that we had never done it before last year.

A win against Arizona this week could really put the pedal down on the hype train. Right now you could easily argue we have a win over Iowa in a series that can often have a fluke result, and then 3 wins over bad teams. Taking care of Arizona would do a lot to deflate that theory.

 

[legi]

@Dale do you have the winning % chance for the clones for each remaining game?

Thanks for putting this together. It’s a fun thread to follow.

 

[Dale]

@Dale do you have the winning % chance for the clones for each remaining game?

The odds my script uses are here.

 

[cycloneworld]

One of my favorite threads all year to follow. Thanks @Dale!

 

[Clonehomer]

After what I saw this weekend, I don’t know how Tech isn’t the favorite to make the game. ISU and TCU play each other, while Tech avoids both. I really think the game will involve two of those three teams barring any more major injuries.

 

[Dale]

After what I saw this weekend, I don’t know how Tech isn’t the favorite to make the game. ISU and TCU play each other, while Tech avoids both. I really think the game will involve two of those three teams barring any more major injuries.

I'd agree with that. But Massey's power ratings have ISU 21st and TT 26th, so for now using Massey's odds leads to Iowa State being the favorite. A couple more TT games like yesterday and most likely they'll be the favorite.

 

[AppleCornCy]

After what I saw this weekend, I don’t know how Tech isn’t the favorite to make the game. ISU and TCU play each other, while Tech avoids both. I really think the game will involve two of those three teams barring any more major injuries.

I’m not sure it’s that clear cut yet. I think Tech looks like the most talented team, but I’m also not sure how good Utah is. I think BYU, Utah, Arizona State, and possibly Baylor and Kansas have the potential to be championship game contenders along with Iowa State, Texas Tech, and TCU.

 

[Chitowncy]

Nice! I also so this posted which I hope gets more publicity:

https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2025/09/21/big-12-past-acc-closing-gap-big-ten-tom-fornelli/

Hope the Big 12 can get some more respect and get 2 in the playoff. If, say, Tech and ISU go undefeated (a dream, but its possible), the winner should get a top 4 bid in my opinion over a 1 or 2 loss SEC or BIG team, and the 12-1 loser should still make the playoff. That's the kind of finish I'm hoping for. An undefeated ISU against another undefeated!

 

[cstrunk]

Love the weekly updates. Thanks.

 

[Dale]

After yesterday's games:

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ODDS:
----------------------------------------
Iowa St.: 49.9% (31.1% 1st, 18.8% 2nd)
BYU: 30.3% (15.9% 1st, 14.4% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 29.3% (15.0% 1st, 14.4% 2nd)
Arizona St.: 28.7% (14.0% 1st, 14.7% 2nd)
Utah: 20.9% (9.2% 1st, 11.8% 2nd)
TCU: 10.2% (4.0% 1st, 6.2% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 7.8% (3.2% 1st, 4.5% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 6.2% (1.9% 1st, 4.3% 2nd)
Baylor: 4.9% (1.6% 1st, 3.3% 2nd)
Houston: 4.2% (1.6% 1st, 2.5% 2nd)
Kansas: 4.1% (1.6% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
UCF: 2.2% (0.7% 1st, 1.5% 2nd)
Arizona: 1.0% (0.3% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Colorado: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.0% (0.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)

MOST LIKELY CHAMPIONSHIP MATCHUPS:
----------------------------------------
Iowa St. vs Texas Tech: 10.6%
BYU vs Iowa St.: 10.4%
Arizona St. vs Iowa St.: 9.4%
Iowa St. vs Utah: 6.6%
Arizona St. vs BYU: 5.2%
BYU vs Texas Tech: 5.0%
Arizona St. vs Texas Tech: 4.2%
Texas Tech vs Utah: 4.0%
BYU vs Utah: 3.4%
Arizona St. vs Utah: 3.3%
Iowa St. vs TCU: 2.8%
Iowa St. vs Kansas St.: 2.5%
Cincinnati vs Iowa St.: 2.3%
Arizona St. vs TCU: 2.1%

IOWA STATE RECORD DISTRIBUTION:
----------------------------------------
5-7 record: 0.0%
6-6 record: 0.5%
7-5 record: 3.6%
8-4 record: 13.0%
9-3 record: 26.5%
10-2 record: 31.5%
11-1 record: 19.8%
12-0 record: 5.0%

IOWA STATE CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS BY RECORD:
----------------------------------------
8-4 record: 0.0%
9-3 record: 9.6%
10-2 record: 72.2%
11-1 record: 99.0%
12-0 record: 100.0%

 

[DurangoCy]

I want to see ISU vs. Tech in the championship. I think that would be a great game.
Keep going clones.