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WILLIAMS: Analyzing Iowa State’s NCAA Tournament situation after a big week

NWICY said:
@Sigmapolis fact or fiction?
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8-9 looks to have about a 5% to 10% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen

12-13 looks to have between a 5% and 15% chance... #12 much higher than #13, which makes sense considering #12s are generally bubble teams while #13s are generally AQ teams, the best AQ teams, but even then the best AQs are pretty far behind the worst bubble squads... so I'd say true but with some caveats

Seems the #12 path is a pretty "efficient" one to the second weekend
 
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MisterO said:
I’m not hoping for a lower seed. I’m merely arguing that some lower seeds aren’t that bad. For example- a 12 would be far better than an 8, 9, or a 10. Not only is there a lower percentage for upsets at those seeds, you’re facing a much better second round opponent if you do get through the first round as a 7-10…
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Statistically a 10, 11 or 12 has a higher chance at the sweet 16. However, being in a play in game negates those odds. A ten seed has the same odds of a sweet 16 as a 10 seed.

Also, an 8 seed has a much better chance of an elite 8 or final 4 than a 12 seed.
 
MisterO said:
The 10 upsets are at a slightly higher percentage- I stand corrected. However, it’s a mere 2 or 3 percentage points which is nothing over 5 years. The 11-6 is practically the same with the 11 winning 37.2%.

My main argument is winning a 7-10, you play a 2 seed. Winning as a 12 you play a 4. We are 1-5 against potential 2 seeds (Tech, Baylor, Kansas). We have a much better chance beating a 4 seed and getting into the Sweet 16. The 6-11’s have a much more difficult second round opponent than a 5-12…that’s all I’m arguing here.
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Why limit yourself to a sweet 16?
 
Numbers confuse some people. Used to be an old saying “Figures can lie and Liars can figure.”
 
Pat said:
I’ll suggest that a little can be gleaned from historical seed performance, but it’s ultimately much more about match-ups. #7 Norte Dame had a good season, but was in no way built to deal with #10 ISU. So keep winning, let the seeds fall where they may, and revel in the fact that this team was picked unanimously by Big 12 coaches to finish last in the conference.
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THANKS EVERYONE FOR CALLING, BUT WE HAVE OUR WINNER
 
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Sigmapolis said:
View attachment 95920

8-9 looks to have about a 5% to 10% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen

12-13 looks to have between a 5% and 15% chance... #12 much higher than #13, which makes sense considering #12s are generally bubble teams while #13s are generally AQ teams, the best AQ teams, but even then the best AQs are pretty far behind the worst bubble squads... so I'd say true but with some caveats

Seems the #12 path is a pretty "efficient" one to the second weekend
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info. I've seen listings in the past but nothing up-to-date.

The difference in % of 12 to S16 compared to 8/9 is higher than I'd expect. But it also shows how much less-frequent for 12's to advance to R32 than an 8 or 9 (and somewhat less than a 10) - so basically, if a 12 does win opening game, it's favorable to advance an additional round -- but you have to get there.
 
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cyclones500 said:
Thanks for the info. I've seen listings in the past but nothing up-to-date.

The difference in % of 12 to S16 compared to 8/9 is higher than I'd expect. But it also shows how much less-frequent for 12's to advance to R32 than an 8 or 9 (and somewhat less than a 10) - so basically, if a 12 does win opening game, it's favorable to advance an additional round -- but you have to get there.
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Right. It says being a #12 or #13 implies a more difficult first game -- which is understandable considering the #8 or #9 games are essentially a coinflip given the two teams are so evenly matched.

This flips the second game because the #8 or #9 has to play the #1, and #1 seeds have by far the best historical and projected performance of any tranche in the tournament. Hard to get past them.

I really hope the squad can play itself up to the #7 or #6 in the next few weeks. The path at the bottom of a regional bracket is almost always easier than the one at the top because of that #1 Death Star is up there.
 
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The most striking thing is the huge difference between percentages of 1 and 3 seeds making the sweet 16.
 
cyfan92 said:
#2 bracket maker, Lukas Harkins put out his update yesterday. He is much higher on ISU than most

heatcheckcbb.com

Heat Check CBB March Madness Bracketology — Heat Check CBB

Heat Check CBB's Lukas Harkins is one of college basketball's most accurate bracketologists. Check out his latest March Madness projections.
heatcheckcbb.com heatcheckcbb.com

View attachment 95944
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Purdue is probably the weakest #2 seed on that.

San Diego State would be a sneaky good #10 seed, though, so a challenge there.

I would assume that'd be in Indianapolis --

-- good drivable range for people from Iowa
-- going to be crawling with Purdue fans, though

I would take that draw. Getting off the #8/#9 line should be the goal.
 
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Sigmapolis said:
Purdue is probably the weakest #2 seed on that.

San Diego State would be a sneaky good #10 seed, though, so a challenge there.

I would assume that'd be in Indianapolis --

-- good drivable range for people from Iowa
-- going to be crawling with Purdue fans, though

I would take that draw. Getting off the #8/#9 line should be the goal.
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SDSU would be an interesting match-up. Both teams pride themselves on defense (SDSU is #2 in defense on KenPom)

They have good a really good guard and 2 good wings. We would match-up well IMO. If that is the match-up and good Tyrese Hunter comes to play. We win
 
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cyfan92 said:
#2 bracket maker, Lukas Harkins put out his update yesterday. He is much higher on ISU than most

heatcheckcbb.com

Heat Check CBB March Madness Bracketology — Heat Check CBB

Heat Check CBB's Lukas Harkins is one of college basketball's most accurate bracketologists. Check out his latest March Madness projections.
heatcheckcbb.com heatcheckcbb.com

View attachment 95944
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I'd love to see TCU make the field, but with the schedule they've got left, it seems like if they got to a 9 seed it would be one of the most impressive feats in their school history.
 
Cyforce said:
Would love to jump to the 6 seed in that Southern region.
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Same. Getting to the 6 seed line would really nice. That would likely take a win against WVU, OSU and either a win and KSU or a win against the 2/3 seed in KC. That would make us 9-8 in Q1 and 11-11 in the first 2 Quads.

The way I see it..
Win 1 more and we are a 8/9 seed
Win 2 and we are a 7/8 seed
Win 3 gets us a 6 seed
 
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NATEizKING said:
Conference record doesn't matter though. In the last real season tournament (2019), here are the teams that got in at 19 wins. With how hard our schedule is and Q1 record, you can bet your ass we are in with 1 more win.

Baylor: 9
Oklahoma: 9
Florida: 10
Ohio St.: 11

None of these were automatic bids, and none were in the play-in game.
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Lock
 
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I’m in the camp that would prefer an 11+ over an 8/9.

Reason being that I don’t think we’re your typical 11+ seed. Too lazy to do the research, but guessing there have not been many double digit seeds that are among top 5 in the country with Quad 5 wins, undefeated in non conference, and just happened to get beat up in the grind of arguably the most difficult round-robin slate ever in best top-to-bottom conference in the country.

With that said, I like our chances of beating a 5 followed by a 4/13 than I do an 8/9 followed by a 1.

There are a small number of elite teams this year, but I think everyone else is very bearable. Especially with our team.

To put this in perspective, that 4 seed could be a Tennessee, Providence, Texas, Illinois kind of team. So yes, I’d absolutely take that.
 
If we end up 11+, that means we aren't playing very well. We'd have to lose out, and even then, might not go lower than a 10.
 
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