There are going to be teams worse than Iowa State that will make the tourney. IMO it all comes down to this game tonight and BU at home. Win both, they are in. Win one, they are probably in. Win neither, probably out.
Will we make the ncaa tournament (PIG doesn't count)
- Thread starter Gunnerclone
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The better Oklahoma State does the better our RPI will look. The win in Stillwater might end up being one of our better wins.
I think if they lose both then we cant have any more bad losses. 10-8 might still get us in without winning any games against Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia though.
Exactly, a rebuilding year next year is easier to deal with following a solid tourney seed and appearance. Then again, much depends on frame of reference. As a kid I watched all the ISU and iowa games in the Orr and Davis days, so I still think a 5 year span with a couple 7-10 seed appearances, one year a higher seeded appearance, and a couple where you rebuild and miss the tourney is pretty solid. Certainly it's good enough for me to thoroughly enjoy ISU hoops and keep the meltdowns at a minimum. I agree, I would rather consistently make the tourney even with poorer seeds rather than rebuilding for 2-3 years to have a big run with a senior-laden team. That's what I loved about Fred's time. All he did was pretty much turn over nearly his whole roster the first 4 years and just kept getting in the tourney.
I agree that there will be at-large teams worse than ISU...**** close losses. Hopefully we can get hot and go 9-9 in Big 12 play and win a game in the B12 tournament.
And keep in mind Mizzous was in a weak SEC, and FSU and Clemsons occurred prior to the PIG.
KenPom and Sagarin are high on ISU this year. Those metrics continue to gain acceptance in selection.
All the stressing about top 50 RPI wins is overblown. Your RPI takes all that into account, so saying "Team A has a better RPI, but Team B has one more win over the RPI top 50" is kind of nonsense. What it means is that Team B probably also had some worse losses. Again, all of which is figured into the RPI.
Personally much like the CFP I think the committee should just determine criteria and let that determine seeds. In other words, say that RPI will be weighted 50%, Kenpom 30%, and Sagarin 20% for example. No reason to allow bias and cherry picking pieces of the RPI data by a committee.
Is that really saying much? Imo it's possible that no Big 12 loss is a "bad" loss, and besides at 10-8 without beating KU, BU, WVU means only one unaccounted for loss. I guess @UT or home against OU could be bad, but that would still mean we have 10/11 good wins.
I'm not optimistic we go 10-8, but if we do will be in imo.
"Getting hot," and finishing 9-9 in conference, don't exactly go together. 9-9 means we finish 4-6, which isn't exactly hot. Unless of course, you're figuring a loss tonight and saturday, which would mean we finish 4-4.
I think we'll need to play better than we have to finish 9-9, and I think we've played well (for this team) so far.
I understand your point but I think a winning record in conference will be necessary. My question for you is as follows: How comfortable (percent chance) do you give us of making the NCAA Tourbament is we finish 9-9 conference and then get beat by Kansas State in the first round of the Big 12? Assume that our RPI is in the mid 40's.
Going by recent history that's 100%. That RPI goes in to the 50's then the chances go down significantly and we're probably looking at the PIGs.
With a 17-14 record even? The tourney hasn't gotten that easy to get in. If we go 9-9, winning a game in Kansas City would be almost a must.
You realize the 17 wins isn't a big deal considering we only played 12 non conference games. Computers love us. I think we go 10-8 anyways so I'm not going to sweat it
Computers aren't everything. Committee has to like us too. I guess maybe we would be the first team in history to finish 17-14 to get in at large.
On other note, I think we are in with 10-8 and first round loss in Kansas City.
Considering we played one less game than almost every other team I wouldn't be surprised by that. It's not like the committee won't realize that when looking at our win total
I agree with this, but I think 10-8 is the floor. My predictions are:
WVU- Win
@KU- Loss
@texas- Win
Oklahoma- Win
@K-State- Loss
TCU- Win
@TT- Win
Baylor- Loss
OSU- Win
@WVU- Loss
I think we go 11-7 and are easily in. We could do even better that that because KSU is very beatable (we've already beaten them) but given how we've played on the road, I couldn't mark all of them as wins. Also think we have a good shot of knocking off Baylor. I may change that prediction if we start playing like I know we can. We could go from having threads like this to talking about a 5 or 6 seed in the dance. This team has the potential and we are very close to going on a run.
Wanted a bigger name opponent IIRC, probably helped our RPI not playing another cupcake but it won't stop the negative posters on here saying "well we only have __ wins!"
