Will Iowa State Win Out?
- Thread starter indycyclone
- Start date
I'll give this a go. Here is my rough guess of odds of winning each of the remaining games:
@ Texas: 30%
Baylor: 90%
@ KSU: 30%
Oklahoma: 90%
@ TCU: 50%
.3 * .9 * .3 * .9 *.5 = .03645.
So I'd say there is 3 or 4% chance they win out. Not very good. Depending on how you see the probability of them winning each game you could be higher or lower. And of course the odds aren't really completely independent, as what happens in prior games likely influences the outcome of future games. In any case, it's probably not gonna happen.
@ Texas: 30%
Baylor: 90%
@ KSU: 30%
Oklahoma: 90%
@ TCU: 50%
.3 * .9 * .3 * .9 *.5 = .03645.
So I'd say there is 3 or 4% chance they win out. Not very good. Depending on how you see the probability of them winning each game you could be higher or lower. And of course the odds aren't really completely independent, as what happens in prior games likely influences the outcome of future games. In any case, it's probably not gonna happen.
If Barnes would have been smart enough to give Felix dude a DNP, they beat Oklahoma, and probably comfortably.
We got our hands full and it would be a great win to get.
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This whole thread is insane, almost no chance of winning out. I love how people think Baylor and uo at home are automatic wins, could lose one or both of those.
We finally win a big road game, we're all happy, and yet this thread gets started. Geez. And don't forget to label posters negative if they want to just talk about the next game or shy away from overconfidence. Or vice versa, toast the kool aid drinkers for having higher expectations. smh
I'm as realistic as they get and at some point when you don't lose at home for 2 whole years you just have to start chalking home games up as wins.
Could you do me a favor and look up how many years it's been since a current big 12 team not named Kansas won at Hilton? I'll save you some time. It's been close to 4 years. There's a reason people are confident when we play at home.
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I think it also makes a difference how often you get to Hilton to see a game. When you are there on a regular basis and can see the environment in person, it's hard to imagine us losing.
We almost lost to OSU at home but to suggest that we could lose to BOTH OU and Baylor is pretty insane. I could see losing to one of them if we lay an egg or foul trouble, or injury but it would have to be flukey.
I'm not so sure about the slipping up part. If they can get past what will certainly be a tough game on Saturday in Austin I not only think these guys can win out... I think they will. They certainly seemed to play with a lot more passion, a lot of poise, and more importantly they played with more focus. I think maybe for the first time this season they have their eyes on the prize and they want to take down KU and win the Big XII (or at the very least get a share of the title).
I'll say it again... that loss to Oklahoma in Norman really woke this team up.
Texas is 3-3 at home, with wins against WV, TT and TCU, losses against OSU, Kansas and OU. Texas 6 conference wins have been against TT and TCU twice, WV and at KSU. I understand that Texas SHOULD be better, but they are not a good team. I'd put that have at 40%
KSU is 5-2 at home, and their 2 losses have come in their last 3 games. They have also lost 7 of their last 9 games. They go to Baylor and host Kansas before playing ISU, so that will probably change to losing 9 of their last 11. Simply put, KSU is garbage, and I'd put that game at 50%
TCU is 2-5 at home, but their 2 wins have come in their last 2 wins and they have TT at home before ISU at home, so they are likely to be on a 3 game home win streak having won 3 of their last 6 overall. I'd put TCU at 45%
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I'll be honest unless we're playing KU I generally don't even give a thought to possibility that we could lose. i think this years team might be our best team under Hoiberg.
I haven't been to a game at Hilton since we clinched the conference in 2001. It's hard for me to imagine us losing to OU or Baylor.
