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Translating HS stats to College stats

cyclonenum1

cyclonenum1

Well-Known Member
Nov 30, 2006
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Obviously, I have expressed my skepticism of Eikmeier and what he will be able to do at ISU.

Last night I was watching Arkansas play and they were talking about one of the Arkansas players (Patrick Beverly, G, 6-1, 180) and how prolific of a scorer he was in HS. It made me think of the many discussions we have had on this site about Eikmeier. So I decided to do a little research on Patrick Beverly and look at how his HS stats compare to his Freshman and Sophomore (so far) stats at Arkansas:

HS - Chicago Marshall (Sr. Year)
37 ppg
8 steals pg
6 asst pg
6 rebound pg
56% fg%
45% 3pt fg%
91% ft%

(scored 40+ 9 times, scored 30+ 18 times, made 9 threes in a career high 48 point game)

Freshman - Arkansas
14 ppg
2 steals pg
3 asst pg
4 rebound pg
42% fg%
39% 3pt fg%
81% ft%

(he was named the SEC newcomer of the year for his freshman performance)

Sophomore (so far) - Arkansas
12 ppg
1 steals pg
2 asst pg
7 rebound pg
39% fg%
37% 3pt fg%
66% ft%

This kid played a very high level of competition in HS and was ready to start right away in college. He also had what could be termed great success for a freshman (unless you compare it to the Durants, Conleys, Odens, and Beasleys of the world). And his stats fell considerably accross the board because playing in the SEC is far tougher than playing HS BB in Chicago.

What are your thoughts as to what Eikmeier will have for stats as a freshman at ISU coming from Fremont, NE Bergan HS?
 
8 ppg, 40% threes, 91% ft(that has nothing to do with school size) 3 as. 2 reb.
 
We get it. Don't you think you have beaten this horse to death?

That being said, I don't think he will have any stats. I think with Haluska's emergence, Ike redshirts.
 
As a freshmen I expect him to be a role player. He may be brought in if we want to stretch the defense. I don't expect him to start or be a serious scoring threat unless teams are collapsing on the post and he can get open looks from 3. Hard to say how he will develop as a player in McD's system.
 
One I can't help to think of when I think of Eik is Teddy Dupay. Dupay played against much tougher competition, but averaged 42ppg and 46% 3pt in high school. That translated to about 10ppg in college and 39% 3pt.
 
The real truth is none of us know how his game will translate. He could be the next Kirk Hinrich, or the next Troy Skinner.
 
I would be tickled if we get 10ppg out of him as a freshman. Actually, that would be phenomenal.
 
Hopefully McDermott feels comfortable with Buckley, Garrett, Staiger, Haluska, and Petersen that Eikmeier can redshirt.

If he does play, I wouldn't expect to see more than about 6-8 minutes a game and his stats will be similarly small. That is, unless he's just awesome beyond any reasonable expectation. :)
 
Can you analyze Raef LaFrenz's stats from his tiny HS tucked away in the Mississippi River valley of NE Iowa and see how those translated to college stats?
 
benjay said:
Hopefully McDermott feels comfortable with Buckley, Garrett, Staiger, Haluska, and Petersen that Eikmeier can redshirt.

If he does play, I wouldn't expect to see more than about 6-8 minutes a game and his stats will be similarly small. That is, unless he's just awesome beyond any reasonable expectation. :)
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Don't forget we also have Boozer and Lee. I think both these guys could be important to the team next year.
 
WTF?

That's what I think. Analyzing a kid's stats at Arkansas to continue a discussion about Eik? Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
 
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I think his stats will probably go up or at least stay the same.

There has been quite a few freshman in the Big 12 recently that have had great numbers and I think the college game is evolving to fit the style of play that a lot of freshman have. I mean, Beasley is breaking records that people like Wayman Tisdale set decades ago. Augustin, Durant, Rush, Ford, Stinson, a whole bunch of guys who were freshman that were really good. You can definitely make the case that the game is more open than ever to players coming in and smashing records.

For example Beasley as a junior averaged 20.1 ppg, 10.4 rpg and 4.0 bpg. So far this year he is averaging 25.7 ppg, and 12.6 rpg. His block numbers are down from high school.

Eikmeier as a junior averaged 25.9 ppg, and 5.5 apg. Since I don't know his rpg we can't extrapolate that number, but if his scoring increases just like Beasley's then he will average about 33.1 ppg for us next year if he doesn't redshirt.

I struggled a bit with why Beasley's numbers would go up like that in the Big 12 but Beverly from Arkansas had his numbers go down but there was a couple of reasons that I could think of.

First off the Big 12 is not the SEC and if you look at Beverly's stats that becomes pretty clear. Beverly is playing powerhouses like LSU all the time. In four career games against LSU Beverly has only had 14, 9, 9, and 17 points. That average of 12.25 points is almost 25 points off of his high school numbers. If Beasley had to play LSU you would expect him to score only about 6 or 7 points based on Beverly's performance, so it is safe to assume that Wes would also struggle against SEC teams.

The other reason is probably that there are a lot of new coaches in the Big 12 who are anxious to get their own players playing. Pretty much only Scott Drew, Bill self, and Rick Barnes have been there for any amount of time. McDermott is one of the longer tenured coaches after only 1.75 years. I didn't bother to check but since the SEC has been around a lot longer I bet their coaches have been too, so they probably have a bunch of established players and they play favorites/don't play the freshman as much. Because McDermott has had a lot of players leave, especially guards, I would bet Eikmeier will put up great numbers.

Hope this look at the Big 12 and SEC helped you out with what to realistically expect from Eikmeier his first year.
 
DeMarcus Nelson from Duke is still the all-time California State leader in scoring with 3462 points.....and California has produced a lot of good players. In his first year at Duke, he averaged 19.2 minutes and 6.2 ppg. Keep in mind that 20 minutes per game is pretty good for a freshman at Duke.

Translation: high school scoring doesn't mean anything.

DeMarcus is a very good player now as a senior, but still averages only like 15.6 ppg. Eik is obviously not a Oden or Durant, so it will most likely take time for him to really contribute. If he has the skills, he will get used to the better competition, and will be a good player. You don't have to average 30 ppg to be a good player.
 
markshir said:
I think his stats will probably go up or at least stay the same.

There has been quite a few freshman in the Big 12 recently that have had great numbers and I think the college game is evolving to fit the style of play that a lot of freshman have. I mean, Beasley is breaking records that people like Wayman Tisdale set decades ago. Augustin, Durant, Rush, Ford, Stinson, a whole bunch of guys who were freshman that were really good. You can definitely make the case that the game is more open than ever to players coming in and smashing records.

For example Beasley as a junior averaged 20.1 ppg, 10.4 rpg and 4.0 bpg. So far this year he is averaging 25.7 ppg, and 12.6 rpg. His block numbers are down from high school.

Eikmeier as a junior averaged 25.9 ppg, and 5.5 apg. Since I don't know his rpg we can't extrapolate that number, but if his scoring increases just like Beasley's then he will average about 33.1 ppg for us next year if he doesn't redshirt.

I struggled a bit with why Beasley's numbers would go up like that in the Big 12 but Beverly from Arkansas had his numbers go down but there was a couple of reasons that I could think of.

First off the Big 12 is not the SEC and if you look at Beverly's stats that becomes pretty clear. Beverly is playing powerhouses like LSU all the time. In four career games against LSU Beverly has only had 14, 9, 9, and 17 points. That average of 12.25 points is almost 25 points off of his high school numbers. If Beasley had to play LSU you would expect him to score only about 6 or 7 points based on Beverly's performance, so it is safe to assume that Wes would also struggle against SEC teams.

The other reason is probably that there are a lot of new coaches in the Big 12 who are anxious to get their own players playing. Pretty much only Scott Drew, Bill self, and Rick Barnes have been there for any amount of time. McDermott is one of the longer tenured coaches after only 1.75 years. I didn't bother to check but since the SEC has been around a lot longer I bet their coaches have been too, so they probably have a bunch of established players and they play favorites/don't play the freshman as much. Because McDermott has had a lot of players leave, especially guards, I would bet Eikmeier will put up great numbers.

Hope this look at the Big 12 and SEC helped you out with what to realistically expect from Eikmeier his first year.
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Please tell me you are being sarcastic....
 
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