Tiger isn't winning at Carnoustie. He'll be lucky to make the cut. Bellerive is a different story, though. His iron play is as good as anyone on tour, about 2 guys hit it measurably farther than he does and even that's not consistent, and it seems as if his driver is getting better. He needs to figure out the putting. That's worrisome, however his putting was very good beginning the year so it's hard for me to believe it's an age or eyesight thing. He's gone through this putting stuff before and come out the other side all while having back issues that affect those short game shots more than others. If you look at Memorial, he boat races that thing with an okay putting performance.
Chamblee has made a good point that this comeback is essentially another swing change. Tiger's never been all that good in the first year of one of those and we have 4 of them to use as data points. At the end of the day, if you told me in January that we would have what we have in Tiger: A guy who seems very healthy, who hits it as far as anyone, who is in the top 5 or 7 in SG: Approach, but he hasn't won even though he's had 3 or 4 chances, I think anyone would have taken that. Hell, most people, before the Honda/Valspar runs, would have taken just the health piece.
He'll never be back in the fashion of 00-01 or 06-07 Tiger, but he's competitive right now with a lot of room for fairly easy, logical improvement. He's got the hard stuff done, now he just needs the putter there.
