Next day thoughts after having some dwell time.
There's a lot of issues to talk about. Many of them don't have short term solutions. The one that does is rotations. Rotations this year are mindblowing. I understand the roster is flawed and leads to some of the rotation issues, but Coach Prohm suddenly looks like Fran this year with his rotations. We play 10 guys, we play guys that have no business being on the court. We sit guys that appear to be making strides.
If you look at BPM stats vs minutes distribution it's awful. In conference play 36% of our available minutes are being played by our worst four guys in terms of BPM. All four are below -2. Play should be based on performance not whatever it's based on right now. The rotation needs to get shorter and weighted towards the guys that are performing. Change the rotations to get a minutes distribution of something like below. It isn't going to fix all the flaws we have, but it's one thing that can change immediately. Numbers listed below are minutes proposed/conference play BPM/overall BPM.
Haliburton - 38/7.9/10.5 - this one is obvious, he's getting and will continue to get 95% of available minutes
Bolton - 38/4/2.4 - He's made great strides through the year. He's not TH, but with our roster flaws he needs to get TH minutes
Solo - 26/1.9/0.9 - I don't really care about starting vs not starting, but Solo has been our best most consistent big even with early season issues.
T Lew - 26/-1.2/2.9 - Early in the year his defense was awful. It's still not good, but it's improved. Cut the crap and let him play.
Tre Jackson - 26/1.4/-0.6 - This might be higher minutes than he deserves, but given the roster he's one of the few positive BPM guys
Note on those 5 first. Bolton, Solo and Tre have all improved their BPM as the year progressed. They have earned more time. T Lew has regressed, but I'm going to give him a pass based on the bizarre minutes he has received. I also think that 5 can be successful. Tre/TH and Bolton have all been shooting about 36% in conference play. We know T Lew can shoot. Solo running high ball screens for TH/Bolton with the rest of the group spacing is our best shot on the offensive end.
That leaves 46 minutes to spread among the rest.
Nixon will need to be in some of the minutes that TH and RB are out, but that is about it. 6/-2.1/-1.1
Conditt needs time on the floor, but in spots and situations he can be successful. 20/-3.3/4
When the situation isn't right for Conditt, Jacobsen gets some of those 20 minutes ~/-2.4/-1.6
ZG has progressed through the year and honestly there aren't better options 20/0.9/0.5
Grill has a lot of potential but he's just not ready 0/-7.6/-3.7
That rotational change would make a significant difference in my opinion and with most of our remaining games being against the bottom half it puts us in a position to finish well in my opinion. Will Coach Prohm make the change? I highly doubt it and in the end if that's his downfall that's on him.
There's a lot of issues to talk about. Many of them don't have short term solutions. The one that does is rotations. Rotations this year are mindblowing. I understand the roster is flawed and leads to some of the rotation issues, but Coach Prohm suddenly looks like Fran this year with his rotations. We play 10 guys, we play guys that have no business being on the court. We sit guys that appear to be making strides.
If you look at BPM stats vs minutes distribution it's awful. In conference play 36% of our available minutes are being played by our worst four guys in terms of BPM. All four are below -2. Play should be based on performance not whatever it's based on right now. The rotation needs to get shorter and weighted towards the guys that are performing. Change the rotations to get a minutes distribution of something like below. It isn't going to fix all the flaws we have, but it's one thing that can change immediately. Numbers listed below are minutes proposed/conference play BPM/overall BPM.
Haliburton - 38/7.9/10.5 - this one is obvious, he's getting and will continue to get 95% of available minutes
Bolton - 38/4/2.4 - He's made great strides through the year. He's not TH, but with our roster flaws he needs to get TH minutes
Solo - 26/1.9/0.9 - I don't really care about starting vs not starting, but Solo has been our best most consistent big even with early season issues.
T Lew - 26/-1.2/2.9 - Early in the year his defense was awful. It's still not good, but it's improved. Cut the crap and let him play.
Tre Jackson - 26/1.4/-0.6 - This might be higher minutes than he deserves, but given the roster he's one of the few positive BPM guys
Note on those 5 first. Bolton, Solo and Tre have all improved their BPM as the year progressed. They have earned more time. T Lew has regressed, but I'm going to give him a pass based on the bizarre minutes he has received. I also think that 5 can be successful. Tre/TH and Bolton have all been shooting about 36% in conference play. We know T Lew can shoot. Solo running high ball screens for TH/Bolton with the rest of the group spacing is our best shot on the offensive end.
That leaves 46 minutes to spread among the rest.
Nixon will need to be in some of the minutes that TH and RB are out, but that is about it. 6/-2.1/-1.1
Conditt needs time on the floor, but in spots and situations he can be successful. 20/-3.3/4
When the situation isn't right for Conditt, Jacobsen gets some of those 20 minutes ~/-2.4/-1.6
ZG has progressed through the year and honestly there aren't better options 20/0.9/0.5
Grill has a lot of potential but he's just not ready 0/-7.6/-3.7
That rotational change would make a significant difference in my opinion and with most of our remaining games being against the bottom half it puts us in a position to finish well in my opinion. Will Coach Prohm make the change? I highly doubt it and in the end if that's his downfall that's on him.
