So, where do we go from here?

[Jayshellberg]

IMO if Gabe comes back, pretty good chance he starts.

The difference is where Gabe fits in the scoring hierarchy. This year he was our 2nd/3rd option in offense.

Gabe can be a solid starter on an NCAA Tournament team if he is a 4th/5th option. So they key as you point out is a scoring wing and solid post guy through the portal.

I also think Gabe can get his shot back over the summer.

With Brockington gone, it would be nice to have Gabe's leadership back. Especially if we lose Conditt, Walker, Jackson and Enaruna. Be nice to have some continuity of leadership to continue culture TJ & staff instilled this season.

Hopefully Gabe returns because he buys into the system and doesn’t put himself above the team. Those characteristics are hard to find in this day and age. Plus, his defensive skills are well documented.

Although Gabe did not shoot the rock well from beyond the arc, he really showed me something in the post-season on his ability to hit the mid-range jumper. Personally, I would like to see him continue to take advantage of this strength instead of focusing on becoming a better three-point shooter. Gabe may never be a good three point shooter, but he could be a very good two point shooter, IMO.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I think another thing this would help with would be getting more FT attempts. In conference play, ISU was last in FTA. WVU and TTU both attempted nearly 120 more FTs than ISU.

Team FT, sorted by FTA, Conference Games Only​

Index	Team	G	FTM	FTA	PCT
1	West Virginia	18	292	370	0.789
2	Texas Tech	18	267	370	0.722
3	Kansas	18	257	353	0.728
4	Texas	18	263	347	0.758
5	Baylor	18	230	325	0.708
6	Kansas State	18	228	321	0.710
7	Oklahoma State	18	204	302	0.675
8	TCU	18	192	290	0.662
9	Oklahoma	18	203	272	0.746
10	Iowa State	18	166	253	0.656

This must have dipped tremendously toward the end of the season. I remember checking prior to our first game v.s. K-State (early Feb) and we were ahead of them by a wide margin at the time.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

Jones showed flashes that he can be a finisher. The reasons he struggles offensively at the rim are things that could be fixed. Both he and Conditt may have needed better coaching as big men, I don’t think Prohm is a guy who develops big men on offense, hate to say it but Fran seems to do that thing well. I really hope TJ and staff can develop post scorers. Ft shooting may be another story.

I am very excited to see what RJ does next year. Don’t see him playing 25-30 minutes but I think he could slightly increase minutes while producing much more on offense.

On CF podcast Cristopherson always says Jones is a guy you’d want to play with.

I'm not sure. I mean, Garza, yes, but that wasn't all Fran. That kid had to put in the work himself to become what he became.

Rebraca and Ogundele were bad this year.

Can't remember his name, but they had a big athletic dude during the Hoiberg era that was stuck on the bench behind underwhelming Woodbury his whole career. Showed flashes early but never really produced for them.

I'll stop before this gets moved to the ISR board.

 

[Cyclones1969]

You can't teach the touch he has at his size. You can help a player put on good weight. NBA teams will be more than happy to wait a year or two as he continues to develop his body, his feel for the game and versatility are pretty incredible for a player with that length.

He absolutely has to go through the evaluation process. He needs to know what they see in him, his strengths and non obvious weaknesses, and what they want to see from him going forward.

If he is hesitant, then the coaches need to make him do it.

If they don’t, they’re doing him a disservice

 

[bostrem00]

IMO if Gabe comes back, pretty good chance he starts.

The difference is where Gabe fits in the scoring hierarchy. This year he was our 2nd/3rd option in offense.

Gabe can be a solid starter on an NCAA Tournament team if he is a 4th/5th option. So they key as you point out is a scoring wing and solid post guy through the portal.

I also think Gabe can get his shot back over the summer.

With Brockington gone, it would be nice to have Gabe's leadership back. Especially if we lose Conditt, Walker, Jackson and Enaruna. Be nice to have some continuity of leadership to continue culture TJ & staff instilled this season.

Gabe is what he is. Look back at his years in Minneapolis. He’s a mercurial shooter. That lost shot wasn’t ever a constant season to season.

 

[CyCloned]

With Brockington and Conditt both going pro today things are slightly clearer, but I was assuming Brockington was going, and George is not going to change things a lot one way or the other. Great Cyclone, but he was not going to score 15 ppg next year,

 

[dabears32]

9-3 in the non-con vs 12-0 this year isn't a huge issue. Need to get to 9-10 conference wins if we want to make Des Moines in March.

With IB leaving, I think Des Moines is a MASSIVE stretch unless we land several 5-star type transfers

9-10 conference wins aint getting us the 4 seeded needed for Des Moines

 

[NoCreativity]

It's AJ Green or bust at this point now since IB left. I just don't see how they are any better next year now without a significant offensive talent like Green replacing him.

 

[WhoISthis]

I agree with much of this, but I'll quibble a few points...

I agree that rosters are going to be fluid going forward, but I still think the plan for building a program for TJ is to have a core of guys who stay year-to-year, continually add experience and skill, and set the cultural tone for the locker room while transfers cycle in and out. That there will be four-year guys in the genre of Ejim, Niang, Mitrou-Long, Morris, and Thomas that the transfers would supplement.

Right now, the roster only has one guy like that in Hunter. Hopefully the incoming class adds to that. But it is going to take some time until those guys are the upperclassmen leading the team.

I think the program significantly overachieved last year. I think even if the roster has some pretty significant upgrades in talent and experience, which you are already in a deficit with Brockington and Conditt leaving, that it could "regress to the mean" and feel somewhat disappointing in discreet W/L accomplishments compared to this year even if the underlying program is ultimately improving.

I know some people make fun of me and my interest in advanced metrics, and they have a point. "Nobody cares if the team was #6 in Torvik defensive efficiency -- they care they're going to be hoisting a banner for 'Sweet Sixteen' in Hilton next fall. How are you such a total and complete NERD!?!"

I think the metrics are going to be very telling for next year, though. Iowa State was #44 overall on Torvik, #184 on offense, and #6 on defense. I'm willing to see the defense slide slightly -- only slightly -- if that means a significant increase on offense and a move into the middle of the Big 12.

The Final Four teams are ranked (overall/offense/defense) --

Kansas (3, 6, 13)
Duke (6, 1, 51)
Villanova (8, 9, 18)
North Carolina (16, 17, 35)

Not that I'm predicting a Final Four anytime soon, but if you want to at least be in that conversation, you probably need to be in the top 20 in efficiency. They've got a long ways to go.

I don’t know, we’re in a different era than even a lot of those guys you mentioned. 2 years is kind of long term now.

underclassmen are nice because they may be more likely to accept lesser roles, then become more later. But you can recruit the underclassmen (Jones) and you can recruit the star you hope they develop into (IB) every year.

More risk of not landing what you need every year? Perhaps, but less risk on misses, both in talent and roster construction. We think these freshmen will be what’s eventually needed and multiple year guys, but that’s a ton of uncertainty.

Imo culture and leadership isn’t really about having long-tenured players. It’s about recruiting the right guys, whether they be here 1 or 4 years.

Going to the Sweet 16 in Year 1 after 2–22 is impacting our perception of achievement imo. A legacy from when programs were not so year-to-year in nature.

Making the tournament by one game/shot with that offense is fortunate (regression to the mean risk), while also affording for plenty of room for realistic improvement. Unless one thinks this staff not able to create better offense until Year 3 when these unproven recruits are in just their second season. That would be damning, particularly given the annual nature of rosters now.

I’d be surprised if losing IB and Conditt appreciably changed our capability to play great defense. Incremental improvements at the other 12 roster spots is how the offense improves.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

9-10 conference wins aint getting us the 4 seeded needed for Des Moines

10-8 in the Big 12 would do the trick, if the Big 12 is metrically as good next year as it was this year. It would probably require a solid non con too, something like 10-2. A win or two in KC wouldn't hurt either.

 

[Trice]

Tre Jackson is gone

 

[CycloneErik]

I agree with much of this, but I'll quibble a few points...

I agree that rosters are going to be fluid going forward, but I still think the plan for building a program for TJ is to have a core of guys who stay year-to-year, continually add experience and skill, and set the cultural tone for the locker room while transfers cycle in and out. That there will be four-year guys in the genre of Ejim, Niang, Mitrou-Long, Morris, and Thomas that the transfers would supplement.

Right now, the roster only has one guy like that in Hunter. Hopefully the incoming class adds to that. But it is going to take some time until those guys are the upperclassmen leading the team.

I think the program significantly overachieved last year. I think even if the roster has some pretty significant upgrades in talent and experience, which you are already in a deficit with Brockington and Conditt leaving, that it could "regress to the mean" and feel somewhat disappointing in discreet W/L accomplishments compared to this year even if the underlying program is ultimately improving.

I know some people make fun of me and my interest in advanced metrics, and they have a point. "Nobody cares if the team was #6 in Torvik defensive efficiency -- they care they're going to be hoisting a banner for 'Sweet Sixteen' in Hilton next fall. How are you such a total and complete NERD!?!"

I think the metrics are going to be very telling for next year, though. Iowa State was #44 overall on Torvik, #184 on offense, and #6 on defense. I'm willing to see the defense slide slightly -- only slightly -- if that means a significant increase on offense and a move into the middle of the Big 12.

The Final Four teams are ranked (overall/offense/defense) --

Kansas (3, 6, 13)
Duke (6, 1, 51)
Villanova (8, 9, 18)
North Carolina (16, 17, 35)

Not that I'm predicting a Final Four anytime soon, but if you want to at least be in that conversation, you probably need to be in the top 20 in efficiency. They've got a long ways to go.

Sig has a very good point here. I'd be willing to slip a little farther defensively to get some offense, but in such a minute way that it's really splitting hairs. Simple answer is that we need both to move on ahead.

I also wouldn't say a Sweet Sixteen repeat is an expectation I'll carry into next year. Tournament berth, sure, but what happens then is so wild that it's hard to get carried away, especially at a school where we've only gone that far 6 times.
At the same time, I won't be pencilling in a ceiling of 10 wins. That's for sure.

 

[CyCloned]

Things are happening fast now. The team might look completely different by the middle of April.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Sig has a very good point here. I'd be willing to slip a little farther defensively to get some offense, but in such a minute way that it's really splitting hairs. Simple answer is that we need both to move on ahead.

I also wouldn't say a Sweet Sixteen repeat is an expectation I'll carry into next year. Tournament berth, sure, but what happens then is so wild that it's hard to get carried away, especially at a school where we've only gone that far 6 times.
At the same time, I won't be pencilling in a ceiling of 10 wins. That's for sure.

I actually don't think the team can give up much or anything on defense if it hopes to achieve its highest goals -- stuff like challenging for the Big 12 regular season title or a Final Four.

Offensive ability is easier to measure, more dependent on individual athleticism and skill, and "sexier" compared to defensive ability. Defense is more of a function of teamwork and hustle.

The team last year was assembled in a few weeks and made up of spare parts from other programs chosen for their attitude and work ethic more than their overall abilities. The result was a team that is going to finish the season ranked #5 or #6 depending on Torvik for defensive efficiency in the nation.

I don't think Iowa State is ever going to be able to recruit (or afford, in an NIL era) the kind of talent to put together offenses as efficient as the ones trotted out by Duke and Kansas. Maybe that could happen when Fred brought NBA pace-and-space offensive concepts to the college game and had guys like White, Niang, and Morris to execute them, but now everybody is wise to that schematic enhancement. It can, however, put together championship-level defenses. We know because they already went out and did that this year.

If they can maintain that on defense and go from atrocious to average or even to merely good on offense, then this program will resemble Texas Tech. Good enough to beat anybody any given night, good enough to win the Big 12 or even play in a national title game, if enough shots are falling that night.

 

[clonehome]

I think Tre Jackson comes back in whatever role TJ creates for him. After hearing comments from Tre and his dad before the season, they were grateful that the new staff kept him this season. They seem to have reasonable expectations and are looking for Tre to get a degree from a big public university. If so, good choice. Is it better to get more PT for a year and finish with a degree from Eastern Mid-Major U?

Well I guess I misread this one. This transfer leads me to believe that in addition to Lipsey and King coming in TJ is looking to bring a shooter or two in from the portal. Looks like TJ is not messing around.

 

[mjhavlo76]

Am I dreaming, or did I read somewhere that Robert Jones will be coming back per KCCI or something??

 

[somecyguy]

It's AJ Green or bust at this point now since IB left. I just don't see how they are any better next year now without a significant offensive talent like Green replacing him.

Way to early to make that determination. We'll see a number of players announce over the next month or so that we didn't expect.

 

[Kinch]

I was going through the CBS TV schedule for the final 4 and was curious when do the Hoks play.

 

[cyfan92]

9-10 conference wins aint getting us the 4 seeded needed for Des Moines

11-1 in the non-con. 9-9 in the league and two wins in KC. Probably looking at 8-10 Q1 wins. Just can't loose any bunnies

 

[Cyforce]

I have loved Iowa State since 1964
I cant hide the fact last night was the WORST basketball performance by Cyclone basketball in memory. I see all this love this morning for “bringing us back “ ???
To WHAT? A hideous performance??
I hope this staff can recruit and fast!!

Was that the only game you watched in the last two seasons?