Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cyfanatic]

Fair enough, do you or do you not consider what's happened to OSU and Wazzu as relegation?
Because Purple Hawk doesn't based on the existence of UO and UDub. His reason for this logic puts ISU in OSU and Wazzu's boat.

That doesn't mean he feels that way...he said if things were starting from scratch! And that is true...if things were starting from scratch, one of Iowa or ISU might not make the cut for a variety of reasons (population of the state/geographic location/etc).

 

[Al_4_State]

Oregon State and Washington State have profiles that are more like the Mountain West than the schools they've been in a conference with for years.

ISU has a very similar profile to not only its conference mates, but to about half the Big 10 and SEC schools as well.

 

[Kinch]

Tough call...UNC and UVa are attractive for many reasons...and would fit the Big10 academically. What that would do to the rest of the ACC...who knows!

I just think that some members of the original SEC feel their CFP chances got burned by Texas. South Carolina and Ole Miss I am thinking of.

 

[KnappShack]

Suck it, conferences

 

[Al_4_State]

That doesn't mean he feels that way...he said if things were starting from scratch! And that is true...if things were starting from scratch, one of Iowa or ISU might not make the cut for a variety of reasons (population of the state/geographic location/etc).

If Iowa had always been part of the Big 8/Big 12 footprint instead of the Big 10, they would never have been invited in the last 20 years of realignment.

 

[20eyes]

I don't think you read his post.

He's saying that Wazzu and Oregon State were only ever considered part of major college sports because of their inclusion in the old Pac, which was merely a function of proximity to the state flagships.

This has never applied to ISU. We have never been in the same conference as Iowa, and aren't really in the same boat on paper as either WSU or OSU. Our stadium is the size of those two schools' put together.

False.

 

[Al_4_State]

Suck it, conferences

This would actually be a good outcome.

Conferences don't really make any sense any more, in any capacity. Their existence has given people like Greg Sankey and Jim Delaney an absurd amount of power to bend their will and lead to ridiculous scheduling outcomes. This sport won't be fixed without central authority, and central authority won't happen without destroying the conference model as we know it.

All of the top division should have 1 central governance, and be organized on a geographic basis, like how pro leagues operate.

 

[Al_4_State]

False.

What, were we in the Valley for a couple years together back in the Taft administration? That doesn't ******* count, and doesn't change that you totally missed UNI's point before you went off and attacked him as something he's clearly not.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Fair enough, do you or do you not consider what's happened to OSU and Wazzu as relegation?
Because Purple Hawk doesn't based on the existence of UO and UDub. His reason for this logic puts ISU in OSU and Wazzu's boat.

I consider it financial relegation for sure. I personally think you’re making a couple leaps with what he said though.

OSU and WSU are much more MW conference teams than they are anything else. I wish the Pac could have stayed together but the propped up the most incompetent and wasteful headship group possibly in all of college history

 

[20eyes]

What, were we in the Valley for a couple years together back in the Taft administration? That doesn't ******* count, and doesn't change that you totally missed UNI's point before you went off and attacked him as something he's clearly not.

How dare you compare Teddy Roosevelt to Taft...smh.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Neither Wazzu nor Oregon State have been destroyed by any reasonable metric.

JP is an AD of what is currently considered a “power conference” athletic department. He has a peculiar perspective, and even then is being hyperbolic.

The consensus opinion is that post election Congress will pass a measure granting antitrust exemptions to overcome court rulings that determined athletes could be considered employees and that athletes can’t be denied compensation. The various “college sports” organizations (NCAA, NAIA, NJCAA, Ivy League, Big 10, MVC, etc) will have more autonomy to set their own rules.

Do you really think this same federal government will have the stomach to interfere in media contracts these organizations pursue because a few dozen schools see their payouts cut by 60%?

Agree, although JP is known in our conference to overshare, he isn’t exactly the best source in this. Remember, cykadelic claims we have a shortfall in the budget because he didn’t see it coming that the P2 would get more of the CFP

So wrong on multiple counts with this post.

There is competitive and financial relegation. Both Wazzu/ORSt clearly got financially relegated ($25M/yr reduction in TV payouts) and also competitively relegated as well for CFB with the new PAC. The new PAC isn't part of P4 autonomy and will obviously have more difficult access to the CFP.

Those two didn’t lose anything though. They never had $25 million more in revenue coming in 2024+. They just thought (hoped) they did, which given the known disruptions in conference realignment was risky

Tough spot to be in, and they got functionally left behind. But not exactly relegated

Unfortunately, the networks will simply avoid the legal risks by giving most of us outside the P2 enough that we don’t risk rocking the boat, leaving a small number of schools behind each time

 

[BryceC]

If the latter happens, then I am OK with Iowa State existing in a 2nd tier of college athletics. IMO that won't change the game day experience for Cyclone fans. But IMO that would be a step back from the more national product that is college sport today.

I’ve seen people say this but I honestly don’t think they’ve thought it through at all.

Any coach or player at any program we have worth their salt would be transferring and it would crush interest in the programs.

I mean it sincerely if we got dropped to a lower level where our TV contract is like a quarter of what we get now we should immediately drop scholarship football and try to get in the Big East.

 

[cyfanatic]

I’ve seen people say this but I honestly don’t think they’ve thought it through at all.

Any coach or player at any program we have worth their salt would be transferring and it would crush interest in the programs.

I mean it sincerely if we got dropped to a lower level where our TV contract is like a quarter of what we get now we should immediately drop scholarship football and try to get in the Big East.

I don't think this is an "overreaction"...it would be a painful and sad decision but your suggestion would have to be under consideration given that scenario.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Lastly, the reason it's going to be hard for senators especially to get involved is how do you advocate on behalf of one university in your state and not others. These people live everyday trying to figure out how to get re-elected. If I'm a senator in, let's say, North Carolina. Real hard to justify to my constituents that I'm out trying to 'save' NC State while Appy and East Carolina don't have a seat at the table. Where do you draw the line?

Don’t we know where they have previously driven the line- basically the P5? The G5 and midmajors can attest they’ve long been getting second class treatment without much intervention.

Would a formally separate postseason, another split like in 1978, really change that? I don’t see it.

IMO the question is whether the actual line is a 48 school P2 , or even 40.

It seems logical that the same dynamics that lead to the formation of P2 that can be beneficial for networks to separate (popular enough) correlates to it being a big enough tent politically

 

[FinalFourCy]

This would actually be a good outcome.

Conferences don't really make any sense any more, in any capacity. Their existence has given people like Greg Sankey and Jim Delaney an absurd amount of power to bend their will and lead to ridiculous scheduling outcomes. This sport won't be fixed without central authority, and central authority won't happen without destroying the conference model as we know it.

All of the top division should have 1 central governance, and be organized on a geographic basis, like how pro leagues operate.

Yes, exactly.

The P2 made good moves, namely getting in bed with networks, that allowed them to exploit the prisoners dilemma in college athletics.

All driven by an uncapped spending in a non/profit environment

A single entity taking control and making money by implementing spending caps on departments, lowering the arms race, as well as from the fact TV revenues may be higher offered as a single bloc, is a fair trade

Perhaps fans and taxpayers wouldnt need to increase their spending well past inflation to prevent sports from being cut despite $100 to $150 million in revenue

 

[Al_4_State]

Don’t we know where they have previously driven the line- basically the P5? The G5 and midmajors can attest they’ve long been getting second class treatment without much intervention.

Would a formally separate postseason, another split like in 1978, really change that? I don’t see it.

IMO the question is whether the actual line is a 48 school P2 , or even 40.

It seems logical that the same dynamics that lead to the formation of P2 that can be beneficial for networks to separate (popular enough) correlates to it being a big enough tent politically

The sport was so informally ran in the past, though. There was no actual competition for the national championship until the late 90's.

What's being discussed would be fairly unprecedented.

 

[12191987]

You have got to be kidding regarding your take on Wazzu and Oregon St.

Their future TV payouts are going to be cut from $35M/yr to $10M or less (likely less) due to the direct actions of Fox and the B10. Both do have some leftover funds to work with due to exit fees and other funds due to the PAC being destroyed.

Not only that, Wazzu has lost their FB and MBB HCs since the PAC was blown up (FB HC Jake Dickert bailed to Wake Forest of all places). Oregon St lost their homegrown FB HC. For players with eligibility left, Oregon St essentially lost their entire WBB roster to transfer after making the Elite 8 last season (including one to ISU). Wazzu has lost elite QBs to the portal for two consecutive seasons due to relegation and inability to competitively pay them. Oregon St did a massive renovation of their FB stadium and are now stuck with the significant attendance and payout cuts to pay for and justify the renovation through no fault of their own. Oregon St has won a couple of CWS in recent years and that program is also facing competitive/financial relegation. Also safe to say both schools are dealing with enrollment and donor decreases as well due to the relegation.

25-30 more ACC and B12 schools face similar consequences due to the ESPN/Fox CFB strangehold. That certainly justifies Congressional or Judicial intervention as JP is suggesting.

Yes, this isn’t good for the Wazzu athletic department.

Like Cal *before* realignment, debt on facilities will be a matter for their Board of Regents to handle (or escalate to their state government). Otherwise they’ll hopefully find their footing to match level of competition to their budget.

Hopefully ISU avoids a similar fate. If not, maybe it’ll happen with a quorum of similarly left behind Big 12 peers so it isn’t quite so disruptive (beyond the exodus of coaches and players in FB and MBB).

So far, so good on the sky falling on enrollment:

https://news.wsu.edu/press-release/2024/09/13/first-year-student-enrollment-continues-to-rise-at-washington-state-university/

Oregon State University enrollment reaches record for 28th consecutive year, nearing 38,000 | Newsroom

CORVALLIS, Ore. – Enrollment at Oregon State University has reached a record for the 28th consecutive year, nearing 38,000 students this fall.

news.oregonstate.edu

So, no. I’m not kidding. The loss of TV revenue has not, and seems unlikely to, destroy those institutions.

Unfortunate circumstances, of course, but I’d be surprised if the government would consider meddling in media contracts as that would almost certainly constitute a regulatory taking.

 

[12191987]

Suck it, conferences

MHver3, the Woodward and Bernstein of college sports realignment.

 

[cykadelic2]

I agree with alot of what you said here, especially the Houston part, but do you really want all the other G5 leagues champs to get into the playoff?

The best solution would be having a separate G5 playoff that is funded as part of P4 TV rights aggregation. The open bidding process would include offering bid packages where, for example, if a network wants the SEC or B10, they also get part of the G5 playoff. G5 schools make more money in that process and as previously pointed out, so do B10 and SEC schools with an element of unequal revenue sharing.

 

[FinalFourCy]

The sport was so informally ran in the past, though. There was no actual competition for the national championship until the late 90's.

What's being discussed would be fairly unprecedented.

Did you read the 1978 SI article about the looming split? I’d say this conversation is quite similar to what was discussed then

Perhaps taking it a slight step past what occurred in 1978

We know the big tent approach is where the line gets drawn. If enough people care, it’s prohibitive regardless of precedent. I’d bet a line drawn between G5 and P5 is big enough.

Basketball postseason is more difficult. IMO if something bought into top of football, they’d include top basketball only, and make their own CBB postseason invitational, including midmajors and low majors at their whim