Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Cyhig]

I bet some of the schools would be open to it but not enough to make it happen. If USC reached out to its former Pac12 colleagues and asked them to form a new league just for Olympic sports, how many of them would be interested and how many would immediately hang up the phone?

Depends on how the question is phrased..

1) "Want to get the band back together for the Olympic sports?" or
2) "Hey - if we have the old Pac 12 teams form a conference just for Olympic sports, we all could save X Millions of dollars in travel expenses each year."

Everything is about money

 

[MountainManHawk]

Depends on how the question is phrased..

1) "Want to get the band back together for the Olympic sports?" or
2) "Hey - if we have the old Pac 12 teams form a conference just for Olympic sports, we all could save X Millions of dollars in travel expenses each year."

Everything is about money

Yeah, I’m maybe too focused on the hurt feelings of some of these schools. I looked it up just now to confirm and it looks like Oklahoma (and Missouri) are both staying in the Big12 for wrestling for instance. I’m sure some Big12 fans wanted them to go suck an egg but at some point for these smaller sports you just have to do what makes the most sense and ignore everything else.

 

[Cloneon]

As idealistic as some of these proposed end results may be, the real dilemma is the complicated process of getting there. The only way I see anything happening is NOT the merger of two conferences, but rather the start of a new conference by some powerful entities and the subsequent departure of media favorites from all conferences. Of course for that to happen at minimal expense would be at the end of GORs and media contracts. Personally, I think the red-tape is too much for it to happen. But, I could be wrong.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

One thing that isn’t getting talked enough about here, is a.) this House settlement hasn’t officially gotten through all the hurdles yet and b.) there are still lawsuits coming through from athletes who competed prior to 2016 who aren’t included in the class action suit.

There could still be some heavy payments coming down the pipeline. Someone more knowledgeable than me, could this lead to bankruptcy for the NCAA?

 

[NetflixAndClone]

I had a shower thought today, if the old big 12 was still around. I think you could make the argument that the Big 12 would be the 2nd strongest football conference. The big 12 would own the state of Texas and we could get rid of divisions.

 

[ClubCy]

I had a shower thought today, if the old big 12 was still around. I think you could make the argument that the Big 12 would be the 2nd strongest football conference. The big 12 would own the state of Texas and we could get rid of divisions.

I’ve long argued that around 2005ish-2010 the Big 12 was the best top to bottom football conference in America and wasn’t even close.

2008 was the beginning of the end when the SEC signed with ESPN abd everything changed. That’s when the media train of ESPN/SEC began. It just happened to also coincide with Saban beginning to dominate.

We all know how it turned out.

 

[Cloneon]

I’ve long argued that around 2005ish-2010 the Big 12 was the best top to bottom football conference in America and wasn’t even close.

2008 was the beginning of the end when the SEC signed with ESPN abd everything changed. That’s when the media train of ESPN/SEC began. It just happened to also coincide with Saban beginning to dominate.

We all know how it turned out.

What goes up must come down.

 

[isucy86]

One thing that isn’t getting talked enough about here, is a.) this House settlement hasn’t officially gotten through all the hurdles yet and b.) there are still lawsuits coming through from athletes who competed prior to 2016 who aren’t included in the class action suit.

There could still be some heavy payments coming down the pipeline. Someone more knowledgeable than me, could this lead to bankruptcy for the NCAA?

The NCAA will end as we know it today. It's inevitable as realignment has been about consolidation/constriction of power and money by Big10 & SEC. The Conference Offices will become the governance body for college sport.

This was happening even before NIL and class action lawsuits. The NCAA isn't on the hook for the lawsuits, it's the member schools. So there will be a day of reckoning for University Presidents and AD's when the lawsuits become finalized. They will have to make a decision if major college football fits with their school's core academic mission go forward. This decision might primarily focus on private universities, but public universities might take a step back as well. Schools like Chicago, Creighton, Georgetown has done great without football.

 

[CycloneT]

I still havent figured out why the olympic sports havent broken off and just have regional conferences. they dont make money so why fly form ucla for a cross country meet in rutgers.

Because olympic sports are tied into networks also. BTN would go under without olympic sports.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

The NCAA will end as we know it today. It's inevitable as realignment has been about consolidation/constriction of power and money by Big10 & SEC. The Conference Offices will become the governance body for college sport.

This was happening even before NIL and class action lawsuits. The NCAA isn't on the hook for the lawsuits, it's the member schools. So there will be a day of reckoning for University Presidents and AD's when the lawsuits become finalized. They will have to make a decision if major college football fits with their school's core academic mission go forward. This decision might primarily focus on private universities, but public universities might take a step back as well. Schools like Chicago, Creighton, Georgetown has done great without football.

Right. I guess my question isn’t so much the NCAA going bankrupt, because those lawsuit damages would get passed on to the schools. There’s already a big payment coming with the settlement check (what is it $22M per year for each power school).

But if more lawsuits come from athletes who competed prior to 2016 (like Terrell’s Pryor’s today) and the courts rule in the athletes favor, what are the chances the fines render some (many?) member athletic departments insolvent

 

[1UNI2ISU]

The NCAA will end as we know it today. It's inevitable as realignment has been about consolidation/constriction of power and money by Big10 & SEC. The Conference Offices will become the governance body for college sport.

This was happening even before NIL and class action lawsuits. The NCAA isn't on the hook for the lawsuits, it's the member schools. So there will be a day of reckoning for University Presidents and AD's when the lawsuits become finalized. They will have to make a decision if major college football fits with their school's core academic mission go forward. This decision might primarily focus on private universities, but public universities might take a step back as well. Schools like Chicago, Creighton, Georgetown has done great without football.

The A4 leagues will just pass the buck to the non-A4 leagues like they proposed to do the first time to continue to widen the gulf between the haves and have nots.

Tale as old as time.

 

[Al_4_State]

Yeah, I’m maybe too focused on the hurt feelings of some of these schools. I looked it up just now to confirm and it looks like Oklahoma (and Missouri) are both staying in the Big12 for wrestling for instance. I’m sure some Big12 fans wanted them to go suck an egg but at some point for these smaller sports you just have to do what makes the most sense and ignore everything else.

When Midwestern schools join a Southern league, they just didn't have any other option for wrestling. It's just not really much of a thing down in the South.

 

[MountainManHawk]

I’ve long argued that around 2005ish-2010 the Big 12 was the best top to bottom football conference in America and wasn’t even close.

2008 was the beginning of the end when the SEC signed with ESPN abd everything changed. That’s when the media train of ESPN/SEC began. It just happened to also coincide with Saban beginning to dominate.

We all know how it turned out.

Probably true. Back then it never occurred to anyone that conference pride was even all that important. I remember rooting for every Big10 team to lose their bowl game. Like I just spent the whole season rooting for Wisconsin to lose, why should I all of a sudden root for them to win just because they are in the Rose Bowl?!?

Now I think it’s at least partly a coping mechanism for some fans. Like if my team had a sh**ty season at least I can take comfort in the blue blood from my conference beating the blue blood from some other conference in the playoffs. Like that validates my team somehow.

It’s not like that in the NFL. Every Broncos fan I know wants the Chiefs to lose in the playoffs. You don’t root for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl as some sort of consolation prize that helps me get over the fact that the Broncos sucked again this year.

Obviously that would change though if somehow the NFL divisions could suddenly each negotiate their own TV deal. And then the Cowboys and Rams would announce they are leaving to join the AFC East to corner the biggest media markets and sign the biggest TV deal. And of course they would need at least 2 Wild Cards every year for the AFC East, because you know the Cowboys would at least be a Wild Card team if they had stayed in the NFC East so they need to bring that same playoff access with them to their new division. And the Bills don’t really provide any value but I guess they can stay because it’s just easier than kicking them out and risking them crying and starting a lawsuit or something. And if the Jets never win anything at least they can take pride in their division having the biggest TV deal and best viewership numbers for all their games.

 

[cykadelic2]

Probably true. Back then it never occurred to anyone that conference pride was even all that important. I remember rooting for every Big10 team to lose their bowl game. Like I just spent the whole season rooting for Wisconsin to lose, why should I all of a sudden root for them to win just because they are in the Rose Bowl?!?

Now I think it’s at least partly a coping mechanism for some fans. Like if my team had a sh**ty season at least I can take comfort in the blue blood from my conference beating the blue blood from some other conference in the playoffs. Like that validates my team somehow.

It’s not like that in the NFL. Every Broncos fan I know wants the Chiefs to lose in the playoffs. You don’t root for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl as some sort of consolation prize that helps me get over the fact that the Broncos sucked again this year.

Agree and in addition to the coping mechanism element, it is primarily the fallout from conferences separately competing for TV dollars and ESPN/Fox manipulation of the conferences to their benefit. The PAC has already been destroyed as a result and the ACC is the likely next target if ESPN doesn't pick up their 2027 ACC TV option.

It needs to stop and the CST model is a step in the right direction do so. ESPN and Fox along with their puppets, Sankey and Petitti, will make every effort to prevent it.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

I’ve long argued that around 2005ish-2010 the Big 12 was the best top to bottom football conference in America and wasn’t even close.

2008 was the beginning of the end when the SEC signed with ESPN abd everything changed. That’s when the media train of ESPN/SEC began. It just happened to also coincide with Saban beginning to dominate.

We all know how it turned out.

Agreed. It was also becoming the best MBB, WBB, Baseball and Softball conference. If our blue bloods had been willing to be the leaders that they are in the sec or big….oh what might have been.

 

[ClubCy]

Agree and in addition to the coping mechanism element, it is primarily the fallout from conferences separately competing for TV dollars and ESPN/Fox manipulation of the conferences to their benefit. The PAC has already been destroyed as a result and the ACC is the likely next target if ESPN doesn't pick up their 2027 ACC TV option.

It needs to stop and the CST model is a step in the right direction do so. ESPN and Fox along with their puppets, Sankey and Petitti, will make every effort to prevent it.

I’m starting to become convinced you are a.i. or a bot. It’s the same post with the same words but in a different order every single time.

ESPN/Fox manipulation-check
Puppets-check
Pac 12 destroyed-check
ACC next-check
CST-can save us

I hope you take this as a light hearted joke becasue you aren’t wrong. Just want some new material.

 

[cykadelic2]

One thing that isn’t getting talked enough about here, is a.) this House settlement hasn’t officially gotten through all the hurdles yet and b.) there are still lawsuits coming through from athletes who competed prior to 2016 who aren’t included in the class action suit.

There could still be some heavy payments coming down the pipeline. Someone more knowledgeable than me, could this lead to bankruptcy for the NCAA?

The House Settlement is on the verge of being approved by the presiding Judge if she is OK with revised language on "true" NIL (no pay for play) at fair market value beyond what the schools will be paying. House will essentially settle all pending lawsuits but there are some that could still be problematic once House is approved from pre 2016 athletes.

And it is my understanding that House is being structured to help prevent NCAA from going bankrupt.

And the NCAA is already taking steps for an outside firm (e.g. PWC) to administer House and NIL under the terms of the Settlement and they hopefully will have Fed-approved subpoena power which the NCAA never had to their detriment. The NCAA will stay intact even if the SEC/B10 decide to splinter off which they threatened to do during recent negotiations on allocating future CFP payouts.

And if the CST or a similar model gets implemented (I hope), the NCAA likely stays intact to administer their sponsored championships and CST (or something similar) would administer and be the clearinghouse for NIL in addition to negotiating TV contracts for all conferences. Each conference would still need a commissioner to administer stuff on an individual conference basis.

 

[isucy86]

Right. I guess my question isn’t so much the NCAA going bankrupt, because those lawsuit damages would get passed on to the schools. There’s already a big payment coming with the settlement check (what is it $22M per year for each power school).

But if more lawsuits come from athletes who competed prior to 2016 (like Terrell’s Pryor’s today) and the courts rule in the athletes favor, what are the chances the fines render some (many?) member athletic departments insolvent

Yea if more lawsuits are coming, I'm not sure what the incentive is for Presidents to settle one-off agreements that only apply to athletes during certain years. And if Presidents agree to make athletes university employees go-forward, does that create a historical & future liability for medical expenses and CTE.

Even before the lawsuits, seems one could argue 80% of athletic departments within D1 are operating as insolvent entities already. Either because they borrow money from their Universities General Fund or they operate based on revenues equal expenses. What assets does an Athletic Department have? Facilities. Who owns the land these buildings are on?

The settlements were going to be paid from future revenue, so as you point-out, how much excess future revenue (growing TV $) would athletic departments have to pay additional lawsuits? In the end, IMO the growing number of lawsuits spells the end of most Olympic sports. And a decline in schools that offer revenue sports like baseball, volleyball, wrestling, softball and basketball.

 

[cykadelic2]

Would they though?

The reason we are where we are is the TV networks aren't profitable enough any more to bid carelessly on TV sports inventory. Everything that's happened since 2005 has been about consolidating "eyeball" brands where they can pay them more, so that the remaining inventory can be valued less. Doing so gets them closer to a model where a team or conference's value is directly tied to how many people watch when they play. So maybe a model that pays that way but allows for more regional rivalries and scheduling flexibility that would actually be good for the game is the one they should look at. Let's get to the end game already.

Not sure how you came to your conclusion in the first sentence, especially given the large increases for the most recent NFL and NBA deals.

Regarding the rest of the post, that trend is due to ESPN's and Fox's excessive control of the CFB TV deals and their clear desire to relegate and destroy more conferences/schools beyond the PAC and ORST/Wazzu.

Take the NFL, for example. Do they separately bid out an NFC East package because the teams in the that division generally get the highest ratings? Of course they don't and it is to the obvious advantage of the entire NFL. They aggregate their inventory and bid it out in packages that maximizes revenues for all of its franchises along with an equitable sharing mechanism of those revenues. CFB essentially does the opposite of the NFL and if it keeps operating in that manner, the result will be more relegation/destruction.

 

[cykadelic2]

But their financial “lead” and advantages over Big 12, ACC, and others would decrease.

The reason for most schools in P2 is monetary imo. It’s that reverting back to smaller regional conferences gives them a chance to actually compete.

But it’s meaningless unless the biggest brands want it. And why would they? Tennessee’s AD being an Ambassador is a nice resume bullet for him, but hardly indicative of big brands being in favor

B10/SEC schools would make more TV money with NFL-style aggregation of all P4 inventory including the CFP along with an element of unequal revenue sharing based on TV ratings and CFP advancement.

Would their "financial lead" be diminished as a result? Of course it would but one would think their desire to make more money would outweigh their jollies in having a bigger "lead".