So what, ESPN has a very cheap deal with the ACC now, but most think they are going to break up the conference in 2025. If that is the case, why would they then turn around and offer the conference anything more than a bottom of the barrel TV deal? I am sure ESPN will offer deals to both the MWC and the left over ACC but only if they can make money by paying each league member $5 million or so a year.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
- Start date
They are getting what $30 million per school now? Every current school in the ACC would end up in the same boat as WCU and OSU at those payouts. Sure schools in the smaller conferences would jump to make more money, but for the current league schools the drop will force them to leave if they can find a way to get into the B10, SEC or B12. This is about money and always has been, rivalries and location mean nothing anymore, its all about the money.
You could be right. At first I didn’t think the SEC and BigTen would want 6 teams total but I could see all of these schools being pretty attractive:
UNC
FSU
Clemson
Miami
UVA
So that’s 5 already and then there is always something unexpected so someone like NC St or Georgia Tech or something like that where the conferences see value that isn’t obvious to me.
But then they would still have 12 teams left, which is more than enough for a conference.
As others have mentioned, the question will be what would ESPN be willing to pay for that 12 team conference and would it be a big enough difference that it forced schools to move.
I remember schools like Arizona St and Utah were content to just make a bit less and not change conferences, until Oregon and Washington bolted and then there really wasn’t a choice anymore…
Agreed.
This Athletic article is also good. It has lots of details on all of Yormark’s current initiatives like Private Equity and naming rights, etc.
The article states one of the big reasons Yormark wants UCONN is to preemptively remove one of the ACC’s backfill options to make it more likely their middle class teams will want to jump to the Big12 instead of rebuilding the ACC.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/57...onn-naming-rights/?source=user_shared_articleWhat I’m hearing about the Big 12: UConn, naming rights, private equity and more
We were to get 15 if we went to the AAC. what I’m saying is that the ACC would survive, they would be better off than dropping down.
The first thought is if they have 7 teams, would the ones for the big 12 be able to leave. The buyout would be tough I’m guessing.
I can make an argument for the Big10 to expand with these teams, but what’s the benefit for the SEC to take on any of these schools? They aren’t gaining any real territory. And the schools they have are already the top of their state.
I guess maybe UNC, but I’d prefer the Big10 if I were UNC because of the academics.
What I want to happen: UNC and Miami go to the Big10 and the SEC sits tight. The Big12 grabs Clemson, Duke, UCONN, and NCSt. FSU is left in a watered down ACC and does a slow death to the G5.
The remaining ACC schools are in much more populated areas, have much larger fan and alumni bases and are, for the most part, much better academic institutions.
And this is why BY is doing things like talking to UConn. It just seeds doubt and fear in the minds of the 2nd tier ACC schools. Do we really want to stay put and risk others might bail? If our next deal is less than the Big12, and it probably will be, do we want to be stuck here WITHOUT Pitt, or LV, or NCSt, and risk that deal becomes even LESS??? It's all very destabilizing, and it looks EXACTLY like what the Mountain 4 were looking at.
The Hateful 8 sticking together was basically breaking the Prisoner's Dilemma, a bit of a miracle, and unlikely to be repeated. I just don't see the ACC 2nd tier being able to stick together like that. Maybe they do have the strong leadership and relationships needed, but I doubt it.
Lots of season left but man they’ve had a deflating several months. CFP snub, public and contentious lawsuit, no landing spot identified, on field embarrassment.
Clemson played the best team in country and got waxed. It wasn’t even competitive in the 2nd half. Those programs need to be careful for what they wish for moving forward.
All true and in the end it will not matter, its about the money that the media contract can bring in. None of the remaining schools are going to get a TV deal that increases the rate they are currently receiving and none of the remaining schools are going to get an invite to the B10 or SEC, the ones that do will jump for the money and because they have too to stay relative.
ISU could continue along if the B12 folded, but what is the landscape like when instead of pulling in $100 million a year, we are getting $40/50 million a year? Its bleak at best, you survive but nothing more. That would be like the ACC leftover teams, their location, higher academics and larger fan bases will not matter, they either move to the B12 or die on the vine.
I agree with everything you’re saying I think the bigger issue is that if 2-4 schools left the ACC I just don’t see a world where they maintain that autobid. I don’t agree with it but that will 100% be an argument and if it happens that’s basically the end of the ACC
I think there are good reasons why Clemson and FSU may not simply be added to either the B1G or $EC. It's arguable that neither school would net the conference members more media money, and the biggest brands in both leagues understand that the conference can get too top heavy for multiple championship bids which is the new goal. Unless both of those ACC schools agree to take Big 12 sums of money like Oregon and Washington did just to play in one of those sand boxes (and they may choose to do that), I think there are a lot of reasons such a plan could fall apart. But I don't think the situation/politics at play are as simple as we sometimes pretend they are.
I could see the B1G choosing to add a Duke/UNC combo to improve the value of their basketball inventory without risking much to the teams that bring in 90% of the football money, for example, and I think the calculus would be pretty similar among Bama/FL/LSU/OU.
Hard to imagine that either Clemson or FSU will not end up in either the B10 or SEC, and have to move to the B12, but it could happen. I could see the B10 looking at UNC, UVA and either Miami or GT to get into Florida and Georgia. The big question as always is what will ND do if the ACC loses its ESPN contract? Do they finally accept that B10 invite or do they try to get their other sports in the Big East and then approach the B12 about a football type of contract or maybe put their other sports in the B12.
At least 2 schools are against the UConn move. My guess is they are Utah and Arizona State. Utah I know hasn't signed with the Big 12 past 2031. I think Utah is against adding UConn to help keep the ACC afloat by backfilling with UConn. They hate being with BYU and being in the Big 12. I wouldn't be surprised to see Utah trying to lure Arizona State, Colorado, and Arizona to join them for the western wing of the ACC with Stanford, Cal, and SMU.
I'm pretty sure that is the case for all schools, since that is when the current media deal is up, and the GOR along with it.
Also, where are you getting that Utah and Arizona are the two against the UCON add?
The Utah fan base has been against the move the entire time, go to their board and they thought they were going to get an invite to the B10 along with Oregon and Washington, when they did not get that, many thought for sure the SEC would not allow them to just go to the B12. They see themselves as a lot more valuable then conferences and the media exs do. They also hate BYU and want nothing to do with them, its makes our dislike of EIU seem trivial compared to their outright hate for BYU.
Sweet. Fans also don’t make administration and realignment decisions though.
Their fanbase, and a lot of fans in general, have made the mistake of thinking success on the field directly translates into value on TV screens. What they've done to improve their athletics and brand over the last decade+ is impressive, but unlike making the jump to the Pac 12, you can't simply win your way into the P2.
And, if I'm being honest, until they started being mentioned regularly in realignment drama, I found myself reminding myself they were a power football program whenever they'd get brought up. I don't think they're worth much of anything this side of the Rockies.
