Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[2speedy1]

I would think Big12 media consultants would have a pretty good idea who is going to be available for the Big12 since FOX & ESPN are the in the drivers seat with Big10 and SEC respectively. And ESPN/FOX basically share (60/40) investment in Big12 media rights.

Sure new partners could emerge in 2030/31. But if ESPN decides not to continue their ACC deal in 2027, the main players will stay the same: ESPN, FOX, NBC, CBS. Those players aren't going to give up top tier games each week to a streamer. Especially when those 4 entities want to expand their own streaming presence.

IMO Yormark has a pretty good idea who Big10/SEC will target. Also, I believe most ACC teams would be adds for the Big12. Possible exceptions being: Boston College, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Duke?, Stanford, Cal and SMU. So Yormark can target tier 3 ACC schools and if perceived tier 2 schools doesn't get a Big10 or SEC invite, they can be late Big12 adds.

It could also happen that schools left behind with post 2020 Big10, SEC and Big12 realignment moves will be attractive realignment adds when Big10, SEC and Big12 go into their next round of media negotiations in the 2030's. aka Does Big10 have interest in two more historical Pac12 teams? Are more historical Big 12 teams targets of Big10/SEC? Does Big12 have interest in Duke, Syracuse, Stanford, Cal?

Not sure things are going to settle down for another decade.

I have a hard time believing the B12 would pass on Duke, simply because of their BB prowess. Are they the best add, probably not, but they are more valuable than Houston, UCF, and Cinci, probably combined. The football is meh, but it is more valuable than say UConns is.

Normally I would say they would be a bubble pick at best but because of the B12s Best BB push I would guess they are an easy take.

The rest you list I agree.

Hard passes on BC, Syr, Stan, Cal, SMU, WF. I would guess Louis, GT, Pitt are more bubble teams, but depending on where everyone goes and how many we take at least 2 of those probably would be added.

The rest probably are takes depending if we have that option.

 

[theshadow]

Sure new partners could emerge in 2030/31. But if ESPN decides not to continue their ACC deal in 2027, the main players will stay the same: ESPN, FOX, NBC, CBS. Those players aren't going to give up top tier games each week to a streamer. Especially when those 4 entities want to expand their own streaming presence.

Figure on Turner/WBD sniffing around for hoops.

 

[dafarmer]

TBS with Charles Barkley!!

 

[qwerty]

TBS with Charles Barkley!!

Turrible!

 

[JP4CY]

Just saw ticker say MWC and Pac 2 couldn't come to an agreement for 2025.
So those 2 are most likely going independent.

 

[SCNCY]

Just saw ticker say MWC and Pac 2 couldn't come to an agreement for 2025.
So those 2 are most likely going independent.

Read the espn article, not sure OSU and WSU have much leverage in these negotiations.

 

[MountainManHawk]

Just saw ticker say MWC and Pac 2 couldn't come to an agreement for 2025.
So those 2 are most likely going independent.

As I understand it, the MWC has no confidence the Pac2 schools want to partner for more than a year or two, the extra money isn’t enough to get excited about, and if anything WSU and OSU would just be unwanted competition for that 5th playoff spot that the MWC thinks will go to their champ more often than not.

And the Pac2 schools want to make sure they are keeping their options open because the next time the power conferences play musical chairs, there is a decent chance the ACC invites them to backfill for whichever schools leave.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

As I understand it, the MWC has no confidence the Pac2 schools want to partner for more than a year or two, the extra money isn’t enough to get excited about, and if anything WSU and OSU would just be unwanted competition for that 5th playoff spot that the MWC thinks will go to their champ more often than not.

And the Pac2 schools want to make sure they are keeping their options open because the next time the power conferences play musical chairs, there is a decent chance the ACC invites them to backfill for whichever schools leave.

Very good article in the Athletic, reading the comments a large number of their fans think that ESPN will pull the plug on their ACC contract after the 2025 season and they will end up as a replacement school in the ACC after it all is said and done. The problem with that type of thinking is that there is not going to be an ACC after the other three league get done picking over the carcass of the ACC. They have a few thinking the B10 or SEC would be interested, but neither school has the academics to get into the B10, and the SEC is the only conference that wants to stage half way regional.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5740549/2024/09/02/pac-12-mountain-west-2025-schedule-agreement/

 

[BCClone]

Very good article in the Athletic, reading the comments a large number of their fans think that ESPN will pull the plug on their ACC contract after the 2025 season and they will end up as a replacement school in the ACC after it all is said and done. The problem with that type of thinking is that there is not going to be an ACC after the other three league get done picking over the carcass of the ACC. They have a few thinking the B10 or SEC would be interested, but neither school has the academics to get into the B10, and the SEC is the only conference that wants to stage half way regional.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5740549/2024/09/02/pac-12-mountain-west-2025-schedule-agreement/

The ACC could survive if they backfill. They will have more than 2 teams left I'm guessing. If they do survive, the payout will drop significantly and there is no way they would be favored to have to auto bid to the playoff.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

The ACC could survive if they backfill. They will have more than 2 teams left I'm guessing. If they do survive, the payout will drop significantly and there is no way they would be favored to have to auto bid to the playoff.

Sure the league could survive in name only, what is the pay out going to be for each team if ESPN drops the contract is the question? The MWC is also surviving but when the payout is a couple of million a year and schools like WSU and OSU were getting 10 times that amount its going to be difficult to keep the programs going at their current pace.

 

[SCNCY]

The ACC could survive if they backfill. They will have more than 2 teams left I'm guessing. If they do survive, the payout will drop significantly and there is no way they would be favored to have to auto bid to the playoff.

I agree with this, they would be a shell of what they are today. Plus, I'm sure some other G5 teams would jump to the ACC if given the opportunity

 

[LivntheCyLife]

My guess is WSU and OSU are hoping Stanford, Cal, SMU come back and then grab only 3-5 from MWC/AAC. Maybe do the same for the eastern leftovers of the ACC to have a national conference. Obviously a big drop down but not quite as far.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

I agree with this, they would be a shell of what they are today. Plus, I'm sure some other G5 teams would jump to the ACC if given the opportunity

The reason all these teams are moving to a different conference is the money, take that away and getting ACC on our uniform really doesn't do a lot for a school. The ACC is going to end up like the P12, a few schools trying to hold on when the majority of the teams have left before the music stops playing.
I really do not see MWC jumping to join the P12, because they all know that there is not money there to make the jump and there never will be, and the MWC at least offers stability to make a schedule.

I feel sorry for WSU and OSU, that could have been ISU and KSU if the P12 had been smart and gobbled up the B12 when they had the chance 10 years ago, but their arrogance, got in the way and they could not be associated with the "lesser" schools from the B12. Now look at them, their four major properties are in the B10, four more are in the B12 and two got a home in the ACC at least for now. WSU and OSU can hold out hope, collect the remaining money from the P12 contract until 2025 and then they are going to end up in the MWC.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Even if the ACC is a shell of itself, if they can even get $8-10M per school from TV, it's a very desirable destination for upper tier AAC and Sun Belt teams. Geography is also much friendlier than the Pac 12.

 

[CascadeClone]

Sure the league could survive in name only, what is the pay out going to be for each team if ESPN drops the contract is the question? The MWC is also surviving but when the payout is a couple of million a year and schools like WSU and OSU were getting 10 times that amount its going to be difficult to keep the programs going at their current pace.

Post Clemson & FSU leaving, I would think the payout would be in the $20M range - same as the PAC. And maybe lower since there's not even an Oregon/Washington equivalent.

That would make the $30M+ from the Big12 look really good, nevermind the stability and leadership.

I expect ESPN won't renew in 2025. 6 teams will bail for the P2, as I see both of them going to 20. Big12 will pick up the decent leftovers, basically adding the OLD Big East including ... UConn. Whether they just pick up 3 plus UConn, or stretch to 7 plus UConn I am not as sure, might depend if ND stays independent or not.

If Big12 stops at 20, you'd be adding 4 of {VT, NCST, Duke, Pitt, UConn}.
If they go to 24, you take all the above, plus 3 of {Cuse, Stanford, GT, SMU, Cal, BC}

The first 5 are all OK, but it gets pretty slim at the bottom.

If Big12 stays at 20, the ACC will have 7 schools left. No matter who they add, the best of the American, the 2PAC, UNI... that's a G5 league making ~$10M annual.

ACC is cooked, dead man walking. Only way that changes is if Clemson and FSU kick some ass and make some real noise this year. Wait, what?

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Even if the ACC is a shell of itself, if they can even get $8-10M per school from TV, it's a very desirable destination for upper tier AAC and Sun Belt teams. Geography is also much friendlier than the Pac 12.

I doubt they are going to be making 8-10 million per school, the MWC is only paying out $5 million to most schools with Boise make $7.9 million. Why would ESPN continue to pay ACC teams 8-10 million a year, when that money is going to be go to the SEC and B12? ESPN has the ACC locked into a very good deal now until 2035, but they realize that by breaking the conference up and moving the better schools to the SEC and B12 it will be cheaper for them in the future. They will lose some to the B10, but the network is betting the SEC will always be the better league and they can use the B12 has a filler for games on ESPN+ schedule.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Post Clemson & FSU leaving, I would think the payout would be in the $20M range - same as the PAC. And maybe lower since there's not even an Oregon/Washington equivalent.

That would make the $30M+ from the Big12 look really good, nevermind the stability and leadership.

I expect ESPN won't renew in 2025. 6 teams will bail for the P2, as I see both of them going to 20. Big12 will pick up the decent leftovers, basically adding the OLD Big East including ... UConn. Whether they just pick up 3 plus UConn, or stretch to 7 plus UConn I am not as sure, might depend if ND stays independent or not.

If Big12 stops at 20, you'd be adding 4 of {VT, NCST, Duke, Pitt, UConn}.
If they go to 24, you take all the above, plus 3 of {Cuse, Stanford, GT, SMU, Cal, BC}

The first 5 are all OK, but it gets pretty slim at the bottom.

If Big12 stays at 20, the ACC will have 7 schools left. No matter who they add, the best of the American, the 2PAC, UNI... that's a G5 league making ~$10M annual.

ACC is cooked, dead man walking. Only way that changes is if Clemson and FSU kick some ass and make some real noise this year. Wait, what?

The B12 will want to add Louisville, good basketball history and they would cement WV, Pitt, Louisville region of the conference, it will add UCONN as a non football school until 2030, giving them time to build up their program. So you have 20 schools for FB and then UCONN and maybe Gonzaga as BB members only for 22 schools.

 

[SCNCY]

I doubt they are going to be making 8-10 million per school, the MWC is only paying out $5 million to most schools with Boise make $7.9 million. Why would ESPN continue to pay ACC teams 8-10 million a year, when that money is going to be go to the SEC and B12? ESPN has the ACC locked into a very good deal now until 2035, but they realize that by breaking the conference up and moving the better schools to the SEC and B12 it will be cheaper for them in the future. They will lose some to the B10, but the network is betting the SEC will always be the better league and they can use the B12 has a filler for games on ESPN+ schedule.

The ACC area has much higher population than the MWC schools. Yeah you may be getting the bottom of the barrel schools, but they may still get more eyeballs than the MWC schools do.

 

[BCClone]

I doubt they are going to be making 8-10 million per school, the MWC is only paying out $5 million to most schools with Boise make $7.9 million. Why would ESPN continue to pay ACC teams 8-10 million a year, when that money is going to be go to the SEC and B12? ESPN has the ACC locked into a very good deal now until 2035, but they realize that by breaking the conference up and moving the better schools to the SEC and B12 it will be cheaper for them in the future. They will lose some to the B10, but the network is betting the SEC will always be the better league and they can use the B12 has a filler for games on ESPN+ schedule.

AAC gets 7-8 MM.

 

[MugNight]

We’ve come a long way since Mandel had the new XII at $12MM annually