Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

Cmonwhatarewedoinghereman

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69 exactly right now:
Big 12: 13
Pac: 9
Big Ten: 16
SEC: 16
ACC: 15 (w ND)

Almost 100% chance WSU/Ore St are not power conference soon: 67

Some chance that Stanford and/or Cal don't make it through this would be 66 or 65

SDSU and SMU aren't going to get that promotion because what's left of Pac, if anything, is just going to be viewed as MWC.

I can't see any other teams getting promoted especially with all this talk of FSU demanding to leave ACC as soon as possible.
You don’t need to have 64. You can have 68 and make 4 teams play their games in Dayton
 

2speedy1

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69 exactly right now:
Big 12: 13
Pac: 9
Big Ten: 16
SEC: 16
ACC: 15 (w ND)

Almost 100% chance WSU/Ore St are not power conference soon: 67

Some chance that Stanford and/or Cal don't make it through this would be 66 or 65

SDSU and SMU aren't going to get that promotion because what's left of Pac, if anything, is just going to be viewed as MWC.

I can't see any other teams getting promoted especially with all this talk of FSU demanding to leave ACC as soon as possible.
3 conferences of 20-24 teams....... will be somewhere in the 60s I would guess, and right in that realm.

There will be some losers, OSU, WSU, BC, Wake, etc. So mid 60s in the end seems about right.
 

SCNCY

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Crazy to think two bad (horrible) hires can bring down an entire P5 conference. I can’t wrap my mind around that. And we survived Bowlsby.

I think the really head scratcher is why they stayed with Larry Scott for so long. GK gets some blame, due to his broasting at the beginning of their media deal negotiations, but most of the damage was done by Larry.
 
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Nycclone

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You might think its hysterical. But I doubt FOX & ESPN would be smiling. In fact whoever made that decision would be looking for a new job.

The Big12 will add the schools that make the most money for ESPN & FOX. To think that on-field or twitter statements mean anything is wrong minded.
Considering we would already have representation in Arizona and Utah, a stronger case could be made for adding Washington state and Oregon state over asu and Utah. Or just only add one (arizona).
 

David Freshman1982

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If the B12 ends up as the "B20", who are the 4 extra schools we're likely add after the 4 corners from the PAC? I'm guessing Pitt, NC State, Syracuse and UConn? Would prefer VTech and Miami to the latter two, but I don't see how they don't end up in the enlarged SEC with FSU and Clemson.
 

exCyDing

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This is getting interesting. If reports that Fox asked the B12 to stop at 14 were true, is it because they didn't want to kick in their portion for 2 more schools after that? Because the B10 expanding by 2 or 4 is going to cost them a whole hell of a lot more. Are they going to decline to go past 14 for the B12 if the B10 expands?

If you're one of the corner schools, how fast are you moving right now? The B12 has a minimum of 1 seat open and it sure looks like the PAC is really, truly toast. If Fox declines to kick in their portion past 14 in the B12, does that gum up the works? Where does the B12 find another $24M/ for two more schools, or does it come out of the 15th and 16th schools' cuts? No way WA and OR are on the outside looking in, but no such assurances for ASU, Utah and AZ.

If you're the B12, do you pick up one more of the corners ASAP and wait it out to see what shakes out with the B10? Either WA, OR or both would be a great prize, IMO. Hard to say if the B10 is just blowing smoke, though. The could totally be trying to destabilize the PAC further, but no real assurances. It's not like they don't have a track record of duplicitous and deceitful behavior when dealing with other conferences, but also like to pretend to be the good guys.
 

Stormin

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Considering we would already have representation in Arizona and Utah, a stronger case could be made for adding Washington state and Oregon state over asu and Utah. Or just only add one (arizona).

Geography. Corner schools make more sense.
 

SCNCY

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This is getting interesting. If reports that Fox asked the B12 to stop at 14 were true, is it because they didn't want to kick in their portion for 2 more schools after that? Because the B10 expanding by 2 or 4 is going to cost them a whole hell of a lot more. Are they going to decline to go past 14 for the B12 if the B10 expands?

If you're one of the corner schools, how fast are you moving right now? The B12 has a minimum of 1 seat open and it sure looks like the PAC is really, truly toast. If Fox declines to kick in their portion past 14 in the B12, does that gum up the works? Where does the B12 find another $24M/ for two more schools, or does it come out of the 15th and 16th schools' cuts? No way WA and OR are on the outside looking in, but no such assurances for ASU, Utah and AZ.

If you're the B12, do you pick up one more of the corners ASAP and wait it out to see what shakes out with the B10? Either WA, OR or both would be a great prize, IMO. Hard to say if the B10 is just blowing smoke, though. The could totally be trying to destabilize the PAC further, but no real assurances. It's not like they don't have a track record of duplicitous and deceitful behavior when dealing with other conferences, but also like to pretend to be the good guys.

I think you take Arizona if they want and wait. ASU and Utah will be there later.

The problem is that Arizona and ASU share the same Board of Regents. So with all these rumors and the PAC falling apart, there may be pressure that Arizona can only leave if ASU comes along too. I know we haven’t seen this in the past, but there is a lot of media attention before these decisions are made. Other moves were made without similar media attention leading up to the move (Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State, UCLA vs Cal).
 

isucy86

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Again, that's not how it works.

They signed the deal where the ACC pays them what ESPN pays it for media rights (the $17mil). That doesn't mean that FSU can just pay the total of that back and buy its way out. No, those rights are owned by the conference, and it doesn't have to sell. The ACC membership all agreed to the deal in good faith with the goal of having long term stability which was desired at the time, and members can't just walk away from that because they think they can make more elsewhere now. There is no set price, and if the ACC were to agree to a buyout (that again, they don't have to) it would likely be substantially higher than the $17mil, reflecting the damage other conference members would stand to face from the move.

Its like if someone signed a record deal and then blew up into a superstar. Their label doesn't have to sell their rights back to them so they can make more money elsewhere.
Not what I am saying.

FSU will pay the $100M AND FSU will forego their ACC media rights payments within the GOR ($17M annually).

The question I have is who would televise FSU games if they joined the Big10? Does ESPN still own those broadcast rights for FSU, if FSU leaves the ACC?

Or would the Big10's media partners televise FSU games since they have broadcast rights for Big10 schools.

If the Big10 media partners televise FSU games, then the Big10 is going to get that TV money and it would support the Big10's media rights contract at $60-$65M.

How is the ACC damaged. ESPN is still paying the 13 ACC schools $17M and ND is getting their $10M. ESPN might not be happy, but at $17M they still have a good deal for an ACC that excludes FSU. Plus to get a pound of flesh from the ACC they would push ACC to play 9 conference games instead of 8. ESPN can probably get more ad revenue from an ACC game vs. non-con games.

This can't just be bluster from FSU. Somehow they feel they can walk into the Big10/SEC payday at $60M and forego the ACC payday of $17M.
 
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Cloneon

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Big 10 doesn't want to deliver the fatal blow, translation: Big 10 wanted OrWa at half price and will get it after the Pac collapses.
We talk like half price is the projected offer. Remember, they're not even worth $20mil. So, I wouldn't for a second offer more than that. And certainly not $35mil. And while some would say the B12 would pay above that, the B1G will spin that next contract negotiation they'll get the full price. Which, IM visionary O, will be a stunning disappointment.