Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[isucy86]

Yeah but your numbers still seem pretty strange. Right now, if a Big 12 team goes to the CFP, that nets every Big 12 school $600k. But you're saying that when the CFP expands, every Big 12 school is going to net $10-$15 mill a year. You can see the weirdness in those projections, no?

You are talking in circles. The Big12 ( and 4 other P5 conferences TODAY) each split around $75-$80M per year. The Big12 split is 10 ways, while other P5 conferences have to split 12 or 14 ways. Notre Dame has own split.

Then the 4 playoff teams have expenses paid and each conference with teams in Playoff get around $3M for semi & $5M for champ games.

The G5 Conferences in total receive about the same $ as each P5 Conference.

With a 12 team playoff the total payout was expected to increase by $1-$1.4B over a 4 team playoff. The number projected was around $2B annually.

So yes, if you divide $2B by 65 schools that is around $30M per school. That is based on G5 schools not getting a cut.

But if Power Conferences make the rules, who is to say each Power Conference will get an equal split. Or the SEC and Big10 could push for Playoff school conferences to get a bigger cut. Instead of $3-$5M per game, maybe $25-$50M per game.

That could also be a way for ACC, Pac12 and Big12 to counter SEC/Big10. If Oregon could receive $50M reaching semi-final- it might be profitable to be big fish in small pond.

 

[Clonehomer]

You are talking in circles. The Big12 ( and 4 other P5 conferences TODAY) each split around $75-$80M per year. The Big12 split is 10 ways, while other P5 conferences have to split 12 or 14 ways. Notre Dame has own split.

Then the 4 playoff teams have expenses paid and each conference with teams in Playoff get around $3M for semi & $5M for champ games.

The G5 Conferences in total receive about the same $ as each P5 Conference.

With a 12 team playoff the total payout was expected to increase by $1-$1.4B over a 4 team playoff. The number projected was around $2B annually.

So yes, if you divide $2B by 65 schools that is around $30M per school. That is based on G5 schools not getting a cut.

But if Power Conferences make the rules, who is to say each Power Conference will get an equal split. Or the SEC and Big10 could push for Playoff school conferences to get a bigger cut. Instead of $3-$5M per game, maybe $25-$50M per game.

That could also be a way for ACC, Pac12 and Big12 to counter SEC/Big10. If Oregon could receive $50M reaching semi-final- it might be profitable to be big fish in small pond.

There is no way the G5 get cut out of the playoff money, especially if they move to 12 teams. They'll get a guaranteed spot and money. It's the P5 payoff to avoid anyone in Congress questioning the antitrust and tax status of these programs. If we end up with a P4 and a G5, the G5 will get an equal cut than each P4.

 

[isucy86]

There is no way the G5 get cut out of the playoff money, especially if they move to 12 teams. They'll get a guaranteed spot and money. It's the P5 payoff to avoid anyone in Congress questioning the antitrust and tax status of these programs. If we end up with a P4 and a G5, the G5 will get an equal cut than each P4.

There is nothing to indicate G5 schools will get a guaranteed spot in a 12 team playoff. They don't get a guaranteed bid today. Hate to tell you, but the reason for realignment is so Big10 & SEC can get more playoff teams. Not guarantee a spot for G5.

Using your antitrust argument, then maybe FCS teams should be eligible for a spot. But more likely, G5 schools can take control of their financial health and create their own division and playoff, just like FCS.

 

[Clonehomer]

There is nothing to indicate G5 schools will get a guaranteed spot in a 12 team playoff. They don't get a guaranteed bid today. Hate to tell you, but the reason for realignment is so Big10 & SEC can get more playoff teams. Not guarantee a spot for G5.

Using your antitrust argument, then maybe FCS teams should be eligible for a spot. But more likely, G5 schools can take control of their financial health and create their own division and playoff, just like FCS.

There is a guarantee for the G5 in NY6 bowls (assuming they hit a top 25 threshold or whatever that is). I assumed the NY6 would be absorbed into the playoffs, so it would be an issue IMO if they then shut them out. Especially with the money that the P2 are taking in. If the playoffs take money away from the smaller schools, putting more burden on state funding, it will become an issue for the big conferences.

 

[Yellow Snow]

Yeah I’m pretty sure CFers have a seat at the table. Speedy is Yormark and Gonzo is Warren. I’m Pancho Villa. Who are you?

I'm John Wick.

 

[WhoISthis]

There is a guarantee for the G5 in NY6 bowls (assuming they hit a top 25 threshold or whatever that is). I assumed the NY6 would be absorbed into the playoffs, so it would be an issue IMO if they then shut them out. Especially with the money that the P2 are taking in. If the playoffs take money away from the smaller schools, putting more burden on state funding, it will become an issue for the big conferences.

It will become an issue for the small schools. Whether it’s an issue for the big conferences is unknown, but unlikely Imo. Particularly if a new entity forms.

These small schools getting subsidized so they can be at the FBS level and fodder on the schedule isn’t an obligation of bigger conferences or a right. There are hundreds of schools that don’t have FBS football, or even football at all. Some of the smaller FBS schools should join those.

Same with the NCAA tournament- the college basketball postseason revenue distribution will likely change

 

[OregonCyclone]

Somebody else on this board might have already brought this up, and if that's the case I apologize, but the money to pay for these big TV contracts won't be coming out of the CEOs' Christmas bonuses. It will be driven by advertising dollars. If you think all the commercial interruptions are bad now, stand by. In every single game, we're gong to get an even larger torrent of ads targeting viewers with the intellectual capacity of tree frogs. (Fortunately for advertisers, that is a very large demographic in America.) Are the networks so delusional that they think viewers will actually sit through those commercials, pay attention to them, and consider their messages in making future purchasing decisions? Or will other viewers do what I do and change channels every time commercials come on? At what point will viewers finally get fed up with all the ads and lose interest in watching altogether?

 

[clonedude]

I admit I don't know exactly how all this works, but isn't the B1G package a signed and done deal? If so, why add any more teams now and spread that money out among more teams?

Isn't the time to add teams when you are in negotiations for a new TV deal... like the B1G did when they added USC and UCLA? I don't see how adding teams to the B1G now helps them at all?

 

[Clonehomer]

It will become an issue for the small schools. Whether it’s an issue for the big conferences is unknown, but unlikely Imo. Particularly if a new entity forms.

These small schools getting subsidized so they can be at the FBS level and fodder on the schedule isn’t an obligation of bigger conferences or a right. There are hundreds of schools that don’t have FBS football, or even football at all. Some of the smaller FBS schools should join those.

Same with the NCAA tournament- the college basketball postseason revenue distribution will likely change

I think the issue will come from members of Congress that see their state schools have to increase their subsidies to the athletic department that get left behind. Congress has shown in the past a willingness to use the tax exempt status as a tool to influence these sort of things. If the P4 break away from the NCAA, I expect that there will be hearings at the least.

 

[WhoISthis]

I think the issue will come from members of Congress that see their state schools have to increase their subsidies to the athletic department that get left behind. Congress has shown in the past a willingness to use the tax exempt status as a tool to influence these sort of things. If the P4 break away from the NCAA, I expect that there will be hearings at the least.

Why increase? There’s nothing that says these schools need to play football at a certain level. And these schools don’t have enough fans for there to be the political capital for it to matter.

 

[Clonehomer]

Why increase? There’s nothing that says these schools need to play football at a certain level. And these schools don’t have enough fans for there to be the political capital for it to matter.

Cause athletic departments don't always have the ability to quickly pivot in their budget. Take ISU for example. If the Big12 were to break up and they went to a lower level, those stadium bonds don't go away. The coaches contracts can't just be ripped up. Even lower levels still have some scholarship obligations.

As for the political capital. It'll be the state taxpayers' on the hook for shortfalls in the budget. So it doesn't matter how many fans are in the seats. It matters to everyone in the state.

 

[Nelcyn]

Somebody else on this board might have already brought this up, and if that's the case I apologize, but the money to pay for these big TV contracts won't be coming out of the CEOs' Christmas bonuses. It will be driven by advertising dollars. If you think all the commercial interruptions are bad now, stand by. In every single game, we're gong to get an even larger torrent of ads targeting viewers with the intellectual capacity of tree frogs. (Fortunately for advertisers, that is a very large demographic in America.) Are the networks so delusional that they think viewers will actually sit through those commercials, pay attention to them, and consider their messages in making future purchasing decisions? Or will other viewers do what I do and change channels every time commercials come on? At what point will viewers finally get fed up with all the ads and lose interest in watching altogether?

I hate ads. I even pay for no-ads on Hulu per month, but even with no-ads there is still ads on most content. Constantly bending over for these people and state and federal government. Don't get me started with signing your soul away to use google, facebook, and the like.

 

[Klubber]

Somebody else on this board might have already brought this up, and if that's the case I apologize, but the money to pay for these big TV contracts won't be coming out of the CEOs' Christmas bonuses. It will be driven by advertising dollars. If you think all the commercial interruptions are bad now, stand by. In every single game, we're gong to get an even larger torrent of ads targeting viewers with the intellectual capacity of tree frogs. (Fortunately for advertisers, that is a very large demographic in America.) Are the networks so delusional that they think viewers will actually sit through those commercials, pay attention to them, and consider their messages in making future purchasing decisions? Or will other viewers do what I do and change channels every time commercials come on? At what point will viewers finally get fed up with all the ads and lose interest in watching altogether?

You bring up an important thing here with advertising.

Advertisers can't control whether you zip through their commercials on your DVR or switch the channel during ads. But that doesn't really matter to them because their ad buys are based on things like ratings points and shares of TV's in use. They can't control who actually watches the ad.

But ad buys are an important part of this discussion. The guys who keep harping on the B1G and SEC potentially breaking away from everyone else forget this.

If you shrink the overall audience for college football, you'll also shrink advertising: Fewer buys worth less money. And that of course would also mean less TV revenue in the short and long term.

So, I really question those who keep pumping that SEC/B1G narrative. A "big tent" approach including all the power conferences and giving access to the G-5 is still the smartest bet for the playoff going forward. Fans like the underdog getting a shot and watch in large numbers when they do (like Cincy last year).

 

[2speedy1]

I admit I don't know exactly how all this works, but isn't the B1G package a signed and done deal? If so, why add any more teams now and spread that money out among more teams?

Isn't the time to add teams when you are in negotiations for a new TV deal... like the B1G did when they added USC and UCLA? I don't see how adding teams to the B1G now helps them at all?

I believe the B1G deal has a couple of clauses, for additions. 1 an addition for ND is built in. So if ND is added they have an automatic increase built in.

I believe there is another clause built in for other additions, but that it would require more negotiations, depending on where they come from, being the West coast, ACC, Big 12 etc.

As far as PAC schools there is a clause that allows them to add another media partner if they add more schools in the Pacific Time zone. From what I have read, if they add more teams, on the west coast they then can bring on say ESPN for the 1030 time slot, in addition/outside what they already have agreed on. This means ESPN may still be involved/on board with the B1G, and involved in adding more schools to the B1G western flank.

 

[Cloneon]

You bring up an important thing here with advertising.

Advertisers can't control whether you zip through their commercials on your DVR or switch the channel during ads. But that doesn't really matter to them because their ad buys are based on things like ratings points and shares of TV's in use. They can't control who actually watches the ad.

But ad buys are an important part of this discussion. The guys who keep harping on the B1G and SEC potentially breaking away from everyone else forget this.

If you shrink the overall audience for college football, you'll also shrink advertising: Fewer buys worth less money. And that of course would also mean less TV revenue in the short and long term.

So, I really question those who keep pumping that SEC/B1G narrative. A "big tent" approach including all the power conferences and giving access to the G-5 is still the smartest bet for the playoff going forward. Fans like the underdog getting a shot and watch in large numbers when they do (like Cincy last year).

Spot on. Another interesting model is the magazine industry. Believe it or not magazines have gone out of business because they got too big. The cost of printing exceeds the cost of sustainable advertising. Again, this is why 'streaming' is such an important part of the future as advertising views are more controllable (eg switch away, they simply 'queue' the position (mid-ad) and resume when you return). Of course, they'll provide dollar alternatives to advertising (ie ad-free subscriptions), but know one thing; this WHOLE business is about the advertising. And that whole business is getting more accurately quantifiable.

 

[Gonzo]

You are talking in circles. The Big12 ( and 4 other P5 conferences TODAY) each split around $75-$80M per year. The Big12 split is 10 ways, while other P5 conferences have to split 12 or 14 ways. Notre Dame has own split.

Then the 4 playoff teams have expenses paid and each conference with teams in Playoff get around $3M for semi & $5M for champ games.

The G5 Conferences in total receive about the same $ as each P5 Conference.

With a 12 team playoff the total payout was expected to increase by $1-$1.4B over a 4 team playoff. The number projected was around $2B annually.

So yes, if you divide $2B by 65 schools that is around $30M per school. That is based on G5 schools not getting a cut.

But if Power Conferences make the rules, who is to say each Power Conference will get an equal split. Or the SEC and Big10 could push for Playoff school conferences to get a bigger cut. Instead of $3-$5M per game, maybe $25-$50M per game.

That could also be a way for ACC, Pac12 and Big12 to counter SEC/Big10. If Oregon could receive $50M reaching semi-final- it might be profitable to be big fish in small pond.

According to this the payout for a CFP appearance is $6 mill to the conference, plus expenses to the school, there's no additional payout for making the championship game.

College Football Playoff Payouts 2023-2024

How much do teams make for the College Football Playoff? We've got the 2023-24 revenue distribution plan plus payouts from past years.

businessofcollegesports.com

I think the $80-$100 mill projection for B1G schools was based just on the TV/media rights and doesn't include CFP/bowl payouts. So if your numbers are right, that means that on the back half of the new B1G deal each school will actually be making $110-$130 mill/year. Surprised I haven't seen any articles/reports/posts about that, seems pretty large.

 

[jctisu]

According to this the payout for a CFP appearance is $6 mill to the conference, plus expenses to the school, there's no additional payout for making the championship game.

College Football Playoff Payouts 2023-2024

How much do teams make for the College Football Playoff? We've got the 2023-24 revenue distribution plan plus payouts from past years.

businessofcollegesports.com

I think the $80-$100 mill projection for B1G schools was based just on the TV/media rights and doesn't include CFP/bowl payouts. So if your numbers are right, that means that on the back half of the new B1G deal each school will actually be making $110-$130 mill/year. Surprised I haven't seen any articles/reports/posts about that, seems pretty large.

Almost positive the $100M is with everything included not just TV. Could be wrong though.

 

[2speedy1]

Almost positive the $100M is with everything included not just TV. Could be wrong though.

I have seen it reported both ways, so at this point I dont know. I believe the Athletic is the only one that said it wasnt included. But there were a lot of articles all over the place when it was released.

 

[Gonzo]

Almost positive the $100M is with everything included not just TV. Could be wrong though.

I was going by the info @FriendlySpartan posted from the Athletic...

“The athletic reports that CBS and NBC, new partners with the Big Ten, are paying $350 million annually for their media rights package.

That said, the deal is backloaded, as CBS' current deal with the SEC runs through the 2023 college football season. Because of that, the network will have a limited number of games it can broadcast before ramping up coverage in 2024.
Per the Action Network, Big Ten schools will receive the same distribution in 2023-24 as it will this year, roughly $60 million per school. The payout will increase slightly in the second year of the deal before it jumps to roughly $100 million per school, annually, starting in 2025. That's based purely on the media deal and does not include revenue from making the College Football Playoff, bowl games or NCAA Tournament.”

 

[BCClone]

Almost positive the $100M is with everything included not just TV. Could be wrong though.

Big Ten completes $7B deal with Fox, CBS, NBC

The Big Ten has completed a new seven-year media rights agreement with Fox, CBS and NBC that is set to bring in more than $7 billion to one of the nation's most powerful athletic conferences.

www.espn.com

100MM payout, that means everything. Just do the math.