Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Gonzo]

You’re forgetting the base pay.

I'm saying that with the SEC's existing and recently signed media deal with ESPN, they're going to be at around $70-$80 mill/year per team, running through mid 2030s. Then they'll make CFP and bowl $$$ on top of that. There's no way that CFP and bowl $$$ is going to add $25-$35 mill per year, per school.

 

[2speedy1]

Nobody knows what's going to happen with playoff expansion. Right now conferences get $6 mill for each team in the CFP. So let's say the CFP expands to 12 teams and the SEC gets 6 in. That gets the SEC another $36 mill, divided by 16, that gets every SEC school another $2.25 mill. So how do you figure the playoff expansion is going to net every SEC school an additional $25-$35 mill a year?

Well because everyone is predicting the pay to go up for the playoff expansion, thats why. Why do you think it would be the same as the contract from a decade ago? Do you make the same you did a decade ago? When you sign a new contract, does it include raises? Do you expect to make more money 10 years from now than now?

Literally everyone is predicting a $15-20M per, for playoff expansion. It is what gets the B1G contract near 100M, when they talk about that number they are predicting a 15-20M bump from a playoff expansion in 2026.

Even the Navigate estimate built in a 15-25M playoff bump for the playoff expansion. This is not what I am saying this is what every media, estimate, and analysis is saying.

 

[Gonzo]

Well because everyone is predicting the pay to go up for the playoff expansion, thats why. Why do you think it would be the same as the contract from a decade ago? Do you make the same you did a decade ago? When you sign a new contract, does it include raises? Do you expect to make more money 10 years from now than now?

Literally everyone is predicting a $15-20M per, for playoff expansion. It is what gets the B1G contract near 100M, when they talk about that number they are predicting a 15-20M bump from a playoff expansion in 2026.

Even the Navigate estimate built in a 15-25M playoff bump for the playoff expansion. This is not what I am saying this is what every media, estimate, and analysis is saying.

So you're saying every school is going to get a $15-$20mill per year increase from the CFP?

 

[2speedy1]

I'm saying that with the SEC's existing and recently signed media deal with ESPN, they're going to be at around $70-$80 mill/year per team, running through mid 2030s. Then they'll make CFP and bowl $$$ on top of that. There's no way that CFP and bowl $$$ is going to add $25-$35 mill per year, per school.

see image:
Notice increases estimated for contract and playoff expansion.
B1G 2024 new contract begins estimated....
2026 new playoff expansion (conservative estimate of 8 team expansion)

SEC 2025 new contract begins estimated
2026 Playoff expansion (conservative estimate of 8 team expansion)

 

[2speedy1]

So you're saying every school is going to get a $15-$20mill per year increase from the CFP?

I guess you have to ask the people that are saying the B1G teams will get about 100M by the end of their contract, because that is what they included in that number to estimate that payout. If you notice all the estimates they take a big jump in year 3 for the big 10 contract, because of the playoff expansion estimates, those are expected increases for the new playoff contract in 2026.

Maybe you just dont understand that, and think that those are built in guaranteed money in the B1G contract and not estimates people in the media are adding in.

 

[BryceC]

I think we will be valuated closer to the PAC than the Big 10. Just my opinion.

 

[Gonzo]

see image:
Notice increases estimated for contract and playoff expansion.
B1G 2024 new contract begins estimated....
2026 new playoff expansion (conservative estimate of 8 team expansion)

SEC 2025 new contract begins estimated
2026 Playoff expansion (conservative estimate of 8 team expansion)

View attachment 102154

Wasn't that chart put together based on the 12-team CFP expansion that the ESECPN wanted but was ultimately quashed, and aren't these figures before the announcement of USC and UCLA to the B1G?

The model these numbers were based on no longer exists. And this didn't account for USC/UCLA in the B1G. Old data, meaningless. No?

 

[Gonzo]

I guess you have to ask the people that are saying the B1G teams will get about 100M by the end of their contract, because that is what they included in that number to estimate that payout. If you notice all the estimates they take a big jump in year 3 for the big 10 contract, because of the playoff expansion estimates, those are expected increases for the new playoff contract in 2026.

Maybe you just dont understand that, and think that those are built in guaranteed money in the B1G contract and not estimates people in the media are adding in.

I didn't see an answer in there. Are you saying that the expanded CFP is going to net every program in the B1G, SEC, Big 12, Pac, ACC, an extra $25-$35 per year?

 

[2speedy1]

I think we will be validated closer to the PAC than the Big 10. Just my opinion.

I think we will be right in the middle. But I am not sure there will be a Pac to compare to either.

I think we will start our contract in the 45-50M per, if nothing changes from now, and end in the 70-75M, including playoff expansion estimates. This is with the B1G/SEC being in the 100M range ending their contract. With further expansion, I think we could add slightly, especially if a conference is disbanded, but that could also increase the B1G/SEC ending values as well, so we wouldn't exactly gain on them.

It really depends on if there is a PAC, if there is an ACC. If there are 3, 4, or 5 to compare to.

Really I think no matter what we will land in a range midway between the PAC/ACC and the B1G/SEC. I think if the PAC folds it will strengthen that number a bit, if not it will lower our number a bit. If the ACC folds too, it will strengthen our number more, but it will also strengthen the B1G/SEC number as well.

 

[2speedy1]

Wasn't that chart put together based on the 12-team CFP expansion that the ESECPN wanted but was ultimately quashed, and aren't these figures before the announcement of USC and UCLA to the B1G?

The model these numbers were based on no longer exists. And this didn't account for USC/UCLA in the B1G. Old data, meaningless. No?

These are based on an 8 team playoff expansion. The point is they show what the playoff expansion bump is expected to give. Just like everyone reporting the B1G contract showing the expected playoff bump in year 3 of the contract.

They do not include the Uscla move, or the actual contract, but they show what a playoff bump of 8 teams would look like.

But as usually you are a just arguing like a hawk that cant see anything but that everything is doom and gloom outside Iowa City and the B1G. Even though all the information is in your face. Im tired of arguing with ******* hawk fans on a cyclone board.

 

[2speedy1]

I didn't see an answer in there. Are you saying that the expanded CFP is going to net every program in the B1G, SEC, Big 12, Pac, ACC, an extra $25-$35 per year?

That is the expectation, of 10-15M yes, Maybe you dont understand english or math much. Iowa City educated?

 

[Gonzo]

That is the expectation, of 10-15M yes, Maybe you dont understand english or math much. Iowa City educated?

Ok well you dropped your expectation there a bit, but that's ok. So instead of paying conferences $6 mill per team that makes the CFP, conferences are going to be paid $36 mill per team that makes the CFP? That's quite a jump.

 

[werdnamanhill]

Why is there 100 pages of arguments over the specifics of contracts that either dont exist yet or nobody has seen?

 

[2speedy1]

Ok well you dropped your expectation there a bit, but that's ok. So instead of paying conferences $6 mill per team that makes the CFP, conferences are going to be paid $36 mill per team that makes the CFP? That's quite a jump.

no, i didnt you are the one that said 25-35m

Look at that ******* chart, nothing has changed in the SEC since they made that estimate. And that is with and estimate of and 8 team expansion. tell me how the SEC is only going to get 70M per?

Tell me how the B1G is getting the big jump in their contract in year 3...you seem to know everything about the B1G so tell me everything about the number in that contract and where they come from, to get them from where what they make in year 1 to what they make in year 7.

If you cant figure it out that then I dont know what else to tell you, but you keep asking the same thing, and disagreeing with me with nothing to show for it, how about you give me a bit of data to back up what you are saying, that the B1G contract includes the money and doesnt include and estimate for the playoff expansion. How bout you give me the data that shows me the SEC is only going to make 70M in the mid 2030s Because I havent seen anything that says anything like that.

You just want to make it seem doom and gloom here, but you are the one that loves to be on Cyclone boards because you love it here more than on squawk boards, obviously you have nothing to back up what you say. Im tired of giving you data to back up what I am saying for you to act like you cant read or add, or put words in my mouth.

End rant.

 

[Gonzo]

no, i didnt you are the one that said 25-35m

Look at that ******* chart, nothing has changed in the SEC since they made that estimate. And that is with and estimate of and 8 team expansion. tell me how the SEC is only going to get 70M per?

Tell me how the B1G is getting the big jump in their contract in year 3...you seem to know everything about the B1G so tell me everything about the number in that contract and where they come from, to get them from where what they make in year 1 to what they make in year 7.

If you cant figure it out that then I dont know what else to tell you, but you keep asking the same thing, and disagreeing with me with nothing to show for it, how about you give me a bit of data to back up what you are saying, that the B1G contract includes the money and doesnt include and estimate for the playoff expansion. How bout you give me the data that shows me the SEC is only going to make 70M in the mid 2030s Because I havent seen anything that says anything like that.

You just want to make it seem doom and gloom here, but you are the one that loves to be on Cyclone boards because you love it here more than on squawk boards, obviously you have nothing to back up what you say. Im tired of giving you data to back up what I am saying for you to act like you cant read or add, or put words in my mouth.

End rant.

Yeah but your numbers still seem pretty strange. Right now, if a Big 12 team goes to the CFP, that nets every Big 12 school $600k. But you're saying that when the CFP expands, every Big 12 school is going to net $10-$15 mill a year. You can see the weirdness in those projections, no?

 

[ricochet]

Yeah but your numbers still seem pretty strange. Right now, if a Big 12 team goes to the CFP, that nets every Big 12 school $600k. But you're saying that when the CFP expands, every Big 12 school is going to net $10-$15 mill a year. You can see the weirdness in those projections, no?

You are forgetting the base amount each P5 conference gets regardless if they have any team participate. I think that is currently around $60 million per conference so about $6 million for each Big 12 school.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

“The athletic reports that CBS and NBC, new partners with the Big Ten, are paying $350 million annually for their media rights package.

That said, the deal is backloaded, as CBS' current deal with the SEC runs through the 2023 college football season. Because of that, the network will have a limited number of games it can broadcast before ramping up coverage in 2024.

Per the Action Network, Big Ten schools will receive the same distribution in 2023-24 as it will this year, roughly $60 million per school. The payout will increase slightly in the second year of the deal before it jumps to roughly $100 million per school, annually, starting in 2025. That's based purely on the media deal and does not include revenue from making the College Football Playoff, bowl games or NCAA Tournament.”

 

[Boxerdaddy]

So no new news, got it.

 

[Proton]

Why is there 100 pages of arguments over the specifics of contracts that either dont exist yet or nobody has seen?

Yeah I’m pretty sure CFers have a seat at the table. Speedy is Yormark and Gonzo is Warren. I’m Pancho Villa. Who are you?

 

[CascadeClone]

Why is there 100 pages of arguments over the specifics of contracts that either dont exist yet or nobody has seen?

Nothing has happened for a month. So evwrything is just speculation now. 1% of it has some logic or rational thought. The rest, not so much.