Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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Seems like the Big 12 is in a good position, doesn't it? It would be nice thinking of some new type of branding for the Big 12.
But we have our friends (sic) at espn and fox. I won't feel good until we are in as a solid P3. Next couple of weeks, or even sooner, should be big. I meant to be a little funny. It is taxing though. Gonna be some losers in more ways than one.
All I remember while living in the Bay Area for 15 years and attending a few games were the tarps covering the end zones to hide the empty seats, the very fragmented tailgating, the horrific parking, and the horrible games.
It was a fun couple of days to think poaching 4/6 from the Pac-12 was a sure thing. Still definitely could happen but I think the most likely outcome for the rest of this year is the most boring one: Nothing else changes.
I still think something will happen before next summer. Doesn't look like next week like many hoped for, but I don't see the PAC schools entering an agreement that will pay them significantly less than they were getting before. So once the bids come back for the new PAC TV deal and the Big12 has an opportunity to get estimates for them adding teams I think you'll see more movement. As with anything, this will come down to whether the TV partners want this to happen. Does ESPN want 4 more teams in the Big12 for their content, or does FOX want to overpay to keep the PAC alive and thus keep more content there?
I don't think the PAC schools want to go into the 2023-24 (last season of their current deal) without a plan in place. So I'd look for something to happen during this school year. One way or another.
I say we mock the Big 10 by naming our conference “The BIGGER”
Both of their TV contracts have GOR attached during the length of the contract.
This is why NOBODY wants the GOR to get challenged in court. If a precedent is set, it would impact all conferences.
So 200+ pages with about a million scenarios, retweets, article postings, etc. and...status quo?
Internets winning.
Maybe this is what the OuT payments will be held for. Use those to buy the exit for a few teams. If that helps to bolster our league it helps us even if we don’t see those funds directly.
I think we all need to realize these things a lot of times don't happen overnight. Sure we see the OuT, and the USCLA moves and think they happen instantly, but those moves had been in the works for weeks/months. They had time to number crunch and work out all the details.
When it is a school going from a G5 to a P5, it is a no brainer for the G5 team, it is just the P5 that has to make the numbers work. So it is an easier move.
But now we are talking P5 teams possibly switching P5 conferences. I know the Media jumps on this and we all take the bait, but I am sure it is not an instant situation. I am sure calls have been and are being made between everyone as have been reported. Whether or not there have been any form of applications or invites I doubt. My guess is everyone is weighing interest. Schools are calling conferences and vice versa, and seeing who is interested and who is not.
Now we are in the number crunching phase. Where schools and conferences are coming up with numbers to see what is the best outcome.
We could still see movement, but It is not going to be as instant as some want or believe. There is going to be wild speculation continuing until either someone does move or until some contracts get signed.
Or CBS? A new conference which is basically the Island of Misfit Schools. Big 12/Pac 12/ACC leftovers with Notre Dame. Student Athlete model with true NIL. I'd watch it.
Even last year when those moves were more obvious for the g5 schools, it took a month and a half for them to be brought in
A couple/few weeks is overnight in realignment Imo.
I think the thought it would be days was based in the notion ND was going to decide in days. The ND AD wasn't surprised by the offer, if you’ve listen to Swarbrick’s comments the last 6 months. It is just as likely he's de facto the one building out the BIG right now. Perhaps the SEC/ESPN gave them a very compelling counteroffer. If ND were to jump to the BIG tomorrow, I think we get the Armageddon action days after.
Now there is waiting because there is still uncertainty on what "PAC" these schools we are targeting would be leaving. And waiting is a good negotiation tactic if you think you have a spot in the Big 12 in perpetuity.
I don't think it is like last summer. It should be a little faster, if not for ND uncertainty. Pac12 discontent is not new, and everyone knew the TV deal was coming up for BIG and then Pac12. As you said, the USC and UCLA moves have been in the works for months. This isn’t a surprise to most schools involved and it is not a surprise to FOX at all.
Imo only ESPN potentially would need time to work on numbers, mostly because with ND involved and the threat of Pac18, the board has changed for them. Do they overspend to prevent anyone from making Big 18, which would make it harder for them to do anything in ACC and they don’t have a mass advantage over Fox.
Imo it is still likely we'll have a resolution of some kind within 30 days. Which seems nearly instant since we've been in the hotseat for 12+ years now.
That tweet said they were negotiating to join the SEC and ESPN is trying to void the TV deal with ACC. Your hyperbole is misplaced.
It is nearly certain that some ACC schools are trying to get themselves into a P2 (negotiating). Anyone thinking that would result in action, at all or within days, is adding their own twist.
ESPN has reasons to want to get out of the deal, one of which is as a means to more easily move ACC schools.
Yeah, I can't imagine an ACC move, with all the legal hurdles that are in front of it, would be something quick at all. If something gets announced soon on that front its because its been in the works for a long, long time (and it very well could have been!).
